In a significant move, President Joe Biden approved a national security memorandum on December 11, 2024, aimed at assisting the incoming Trump administration in navigating complex geopolitical challenges involving China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. This memorandum, developed by Biden administration officials starting in the summer of 2024, outlines strategies for improving interagency cooperation, enhancing information sharing with allies, calibrating sanctions, and preparing for simultaneous crises [9c23bcef].
The memo reflects growing concerns about the increasing coordination among these adversaries, particularly in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Iran continues to strengthen its ties with China and Russia, as highlighted in recent discussions between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Chinese officials, the U.S. is keen to address the implications of this cooperation on global security [9c23bcef].
Pezeshkian's commitment to implementing a 25-year cooperation deal with China, which includes a $400 billion investment, underscores Iran's strategic pivot towards its allies amid ongoing U.S. sanctions. The Iranian leadership, facing internal divisions and economic pressures, is also reassessing its diplomatic priorities, as indicated by the new foreign minister Abbas Araghchi's emphasis on strengthening relations with neighboring countries [9c23bcef].
Biden's memorandum is classified and will not be made public due to its sensitive nature, but it signals a proactive approach to the challenges posed by these nations. The document aims to prepare the Trump administration for a landscape where simultaneous crises may arise, necessitating a coordinated response [9c23bcef].
In parallel, a recent analysis by Robert D. Atkinson highlights a critical gap in U.S. policy: while the nation has a National Security Strategy (NSS), it lacks a comprehensive national competitiveness strategy. The analysis notes that previous administrations have produced varying degrees of NSS documents, but none have adequately addressed the need for a robust industrial policy to counteract the weakening of America's industrial base [4e0155d9].
Atkinson argues that the NSS has become increasingly vague and self-promoting over time, with past documents failing to provide actionable strategies for enhancing U.S. competitiveness, particularly against China. He calls for a shift from market-oriented to producer-oriented economics to restore U.S. industrial dominance, emphasizing the need for a new strategy focused on advanced industries [4e0155d9].
As the Biden administration prepares to hand over the reins, the implications of both the national security memorandum and the call for a national competitiveness strategy could shape U.S. foreign policy and economic strategy significantly. The evolving dynamics in the Middle East, coupled with the strategic interests of China and Russia, will require careful navigation by the incoming administration [4e0155d9].