The EUR/USD pair is experiencing an upward rebound, driven by multiple factors. One of the key factors is the widening interest rate gap, which has sparked hopes among investors. The European Central Bank (ECB) has hinted at a possible interest rate hike in the future, which has contributed to the rebound of the euro. The ECB's decision to raise interest rates would create a larger gap between the interest rates of the euro and the US dollar, making the euro more attractive to investors.
The rebound in the euro comes at a time when the currency has been under pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of the Omicron variant. However, positive economic data from the Eurozone has provided support for the euro's rebound. The combination of the widening interest rate gap and positive economic data has boosted investor confidence in the euro, leading to its upward movement.
Despite the rebound, the EUR/USD pair remains cautious in the face of geopolitical conflict and risk aversion. The recent tensions in Israel have led to a surge in demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, as tensions ease, profit-taking in the dollar's recent gains may occur, which could further support the euro's rebound.
The pair's rebound gains have not surpassed the resistance level of 1.0616 and have stabilized around 1.0594. The US GDP growth in Q3 has been robust, posing a challenge for US Federal Reserve officials who are considering further policy tightening. Despite forming higher lows and higher highs within an upward channel, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish.
The EUR/USD pair is now nearing a technical breakout following disappointing US economic data. Weak US employment data, including increased unemployment and slower wage growth, have raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has put downward pressure on the US dollar and provided further support for the euro's rebound.
With most major events scheduled outside the continent, the direction of the EUR/USD pair looks set to be influenced by external factors. The divergence in central bank expectations, with the European Central Bank (ECB) bringing forward a rate cut to June and the Federal Reserve pushing back its first move to Q4, will play a significant role in determining the pair's performance. The sustainability of the US economy's momentum will also be a crucial factor. Geopolitical developments will contribute to potential volatility, particularly in safe-haven flows. Gap risks may arise upon the resumption of trade on Monday. Given the technical breakdown in EUR/USD on Friday, if the trajectory in both the interest rate outlook and geopolitical landscape is sustained, selling rallies is preferred. [8d4b6ec3]
The risk aversion caused by the geopolitical conflict in Israel could lead to further upside for the safe-haven US dollar, but easing tensions could mean taking profits in the dollar's recent gains. [2c5a0b9c]
The euro's rebound amid hopes on the interest rate gap and positive economic data is a significant development that could impact the EUR/USD pair's performance in the coming days and weeks. The widening interest rate gap, positive economic data from the Eurozone, and disappointing US economic data have provided support for the euro, counteracting the concerns about the Omicron variant. Traders and investors will closely monitor the ECB's decisions regarding interest rates, any further developments in the geopolitical landscape, and the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts to assess the future direction of the EUR/USD pair.
Source: Economies.com [3b80a7d1]
Source: FX Empire [b006ba82]