As the cotton market grapples with persistent challenges, Bangladesh's cotton consumption forecast for the marketing year 2024-25 has been revised upwards to 78 lakh bales, a decrease from the earlier estimate of 80 lakh bales made by the USDA in April 2024. This revision follows downward adjustments in August and September due to various market pressures. Cotton prices have also seen a decline, falling 15% year-on-year to $1.79 per kg during the July-September period.
Despite the upward revision in consumption, local production of cotton in Bangladesh remains low, estimated at only 1.5 lakh bales annually. Consequently, imports for the marketing year 2025 are projected at 77 lakh bales, marking a 2% increase from 75.75 lakh bales in the previous year. Local textile mills are grappling with operational challenges stemming from ongoing gas and electricity crises, which have further complicated the supply chain. However, demand for cotton has begun to rise again, particularly noted by the end of September 2024.
In Pakistan, the cotton market is also under pressure as production continues to decline sharply. Recent forecasts indicate that cotton production for the current season may only reach 6-7 million bales, significantly below the textile sector's demand of 16 million bales. This alarming shortfall has raised concerns among textile industrialists, including Khawaja Muhammad Usman, who emphasizes the urgent need for increased cotton supply to support the economy and sustain the textile industry.
The December cotton contract has recently fallen below the 70-cent level, settling at 67.99 cents. Textile mills have been aggressive with price fixations, believing that demand will be there at lower prices. Speculative short positions could lead to a temporary short covering rally. If the December contract fails to find support at the current level, the next significant price support is at the 62-63 cent level. Despite poor weekly export sales and cancellations from major customers like China and Vietnam, a limited number of mills are showing interest in increasing yarn inventory in hopes of potential sales. However, the world consumer, particularly in the western world, is no longer actively purchasing cotton apparel.
Dr. Yusuf Zafar from the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee attributes the decline in production to several factors, including reduced cultivation area, extreme heatwaves, and pest infestations, particularly by the pink bollworm, which have devastated cotton fields. Production has plummeted from over 14 million bales to a low of 4.5 million bales in 2022. Rising costs of inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, electricity, and quality seeds have further exacerbated the situation, making cotton cultivation less profitable.
The decline in cotton production poses serious implications for Pakistan's economy, including reduced income and increased poverty levels among cotton farmers, as well as negative effects on the textile industry. In response, the government is taking steps to improve cotton production and protect farmers' interests. New technologies, such as CRISPR/Cas9, are being explored to develop resilient cotton varieties. Addressing the decline requires improved pest management practices, investment in agricultural research and development, financial support to farmers, and favorable policies and support programs. Sustainable cotton production is vital for the economy and the livelihoods of millions of Pakistanis.
In the United States, cotton prices have struggled to maintain the 70-cent level, closing at 66.81 cents on November 17, 2024, down nearly 4 cents from the previous week. U.S. export sales remain weak, with no new crop export sales indicating prolonged demand issues into 2025. The U.S. has lost its leadership in the global cotton market, now producing only 1% of the world's textile spinning. Brazil's lower production costs allow it to gain market share, while U.S. growers face challenges justifying cotton planting at current prices. The market is expected to trade between 66-72 cents for the remainder of 2024, with March contracts struggling to reach 74 cents.
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