In a preview of North Korea's strategic moves in 2024, it is forecasted that the country will continue to enhance its ties with Russia and advance military cooperation, while shunning diplomacy with the United States and South Korea [2a302b69]. The article highlights North Korea's explicit military cooperation with Russia, including the supply of munitions and the successful launch of a military reconnaissance satellite. This collaboration poses a direct threat to South Korea and raises concerns among neighboring countries and the international community [365cf507].
The forecast suggests that North Korea has little interest in resuming nuclear talks with the United States under the Biden administration [2a302b69]. Frustrated with the lack of progress in previous negotiations, North Korea has made it clear that it will not negotiate away its nuclear weapons. Instead, it seeks assistance from Russia to develop its capabilities [2cba07c3]. This move is seen as part of North Korea's efforts to position itself as a key player in an emerging anti-U.S. bloc led by China and Russia [2cba07c3].
Furthermore, the absence of inter-Korean dialogue is attributed to the hawkish approach of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol [2a302b69]. The strained relations between North and South Korea contribute to the aggravated security conditions on the Korean Peninsula, as highlighted in the article [2a302b69].
Recent analysis from 38 North suggests that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been since early June 1950. Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war, although the timing and method are unknown [ee4094cf]. North Korean media has been showing war preparation themes since the beginning of last year, indicating a departure from typical bluster. The failed Hanoi summit in February 2019 affected Kim's views and led to a fundamentally new approach. The North reevaluated its policy options and shifted its approach towards China and Russia [ee4094cf].
The article also highlights that North Korea's policy has shifted from normalizing relations with the US to preparing for war, after concluding that previous strategies have failed. Signs of a military solution to the Korean question appeared in high-level North Korean pronouncements in 2023. The North's view that global tides were running in its favor may have influenced its decision. Washington and Seoul believe their alliance and deterrence will keep Kim on the status-quo trajectory, but the evidence suggests otherwise. North Korea has a large nuclear arsenal and may be considering a military solution. Even if the US and South Korea win a war, the destruction would be extensive [ee4094cf].
According to a recent analysis, North Korea, under Kim Jong-un, has been increasing the frequency of provocations and drawing closer to Russia. Kim has proposed revising the country's constitution to define South Korea as its 'primary foe and invariable principal enemy.' The North has abandoned engagement with South Korea and the U.S. and has rejected Biden administration overtures. Kim has been augmenting his arsenal at a breakneck pace and has threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the South. The DPRK is a nuclear power with sufficient fissile material to make at least 45 to 55 nuclear weapons. The RAND Corporation and Asan Institute for Policy Studies warned that the DPRK might build as many as 242 nuclear weapons. Diplomacy is seen as the best achievable outcome, but the North is likely to set its own terms for any deal [03658617] [2a302b69].
As tensions continue to rise, neighboring countries and the international community closely monitor the implications of North Korea's strategic moves in 2024. The enhanced ties with Russia, the shunning of diplomacy with the United States and South Korea, and the preparation for war have the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape and impact the balance of power in the region [365cf507] [2a302b69] [ee4094cf].