Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th president of the United States on November 5, 2024, and his presidency is expected to significantly shift military strategies in the Middle East. His close ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are likely to lead to a strategy focused on curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, which Trump views as a critical threat to Israel's security [586e95e0][c27b186c].
As Trump prepares to take office, the landscape of U.S.-Israel military cooperation is likely to continue, with expectations of increased arms sales and intelligence sharing. Experts predict that Trump may push for Israel to conclude its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, emphasizing the need for strategic success and de-escalation efforts [586e95e0].
The recent escalation of violence following Hamas's surprise attack on October 7, 2023, and the ongoing Gaza war complicate any future diplomatic efforts. Arab states are looking to Saudi Arabia to moderate Trump's pro-Israel policies, particularly as concerns mount over his potential nominees who favor Israel and adopt hawkish stances on Iran [91f02a76][d50debf4].
Key donors, including Miriam Adelson, anticipate that Trump will continue to support Israel's interests, potentially pushing for further annexation of the West Bank. Trump's campaign rhetoric suggests a desire to conclude the Gaza conflict by January 2025, although specific strategies remain unclear [93afd525].
In a notable development, Qatar has paused its mediation role between Israel and Hamas, complicating ceasefire efforts. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government is unlikely to make significant concessions, while Hamas demands a complete end to the fighting. The U.S. has recently approved a $20 billion arms sale to Israel, reinforcing American support for Israeli military operations [49d29bce].
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is seen as pivotal in influencing Trump's approach to Palestinian issues, with normalization of relations with Israel potentially being used as leverage. However, this normalization hinges on the recognition of Palestinian statehood, reflecting the broader regional implications of U.S. foreign policy [91f02a76][d50debf4].
Moreover, the Houthis, a Yemeni group, have expressed skepticism about Trump's commitment to Arab voters, warning that continued U.S. support for Israel could exacerbate economic issues domestically [5e742d36]. As the Biden administration attempts to balance support for Israel with humanitarian concerns in Gaza, it faces challenges in normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which have been complicated by the ongoing violence [49d29bce][ef378af9].
As Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, he will inherit complex foreign policy issues regarding Iran. He plans to return to a 'maximum pressure' strategy aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear power due to intensified uranium enrichment since the termination of the 2015 nuclear deal [8bcdbcf1]. Trump's previous sanctions failed to bring Iran to negotiations, and current geopolitical dynamics may affect the effectiveness of renewed sanctions. Iran's foreign minister has indicated a willingness to resume nuclear talks amid regional vulnerabilities, but Trump's administration may face internal divisions over negotiation terms [8bcdbcf1].
Military action against Iran could be considered if diplomatic efforts fail, adding another layer of complexity to Trump's foreign policy approach. The outcome of the current conflicts in Israel will significantly influence Trump's policy direction, especially if the Israeli government becomes weakened and is forced to make concessions to Palestinians [93afd525].
In addition to the Middle East, Trump's second term may not be peaceful, as geopolitical tensions rise in Eurasia. Turkey's involvement in Syria could destabilize the region, impacting Kurdish populations and potentially releasing Islamic State prisoners. Azerbaijan's aggressive stance, particularly under President Ilham Aliyev, has already led to increased violence in the Caucasus, especially following the U.S. distraction due to the Ukraine conflict. These regional conflicts will pose significant challenges for Trump's foreign policy decisions as he navigates his second term [167f218e].
In the UK, Diane Abbott MP has raised concerns that Trump's presidency will exacerbate military spending demands and warmongering. She criticizes the UK government's alignment with U.S. military strategies, particularly regarding conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and warns against increasing military spending to 5% of GDP as proposed by Trump. Abbott argues for Britain to pursue independent trade deals and opt out of U.S.-led conflicts, highlighting the detrimental impact on public services and the need for a coherent foreign policy focused on trade and mutual benefit [cef4a9d3].
As the situation evolves, Trump's ability to navigate these challenges will be critical. His unpredictability poses risks for Saudi Arabia's regional leadership ambitions, raising questions about the feasibility of achieving lasting peace in the Middle East and beyond [d50debf4][49d29bce]. Achieving regional stability may paradoxically require Saudi involvement and a Palestinian state, as Trump's military support for Israel could escalate tensions with Iran, risking war [c27b186c]. Successful foreign policy will depend on decisive deal-making amidst fragile regimes in the region, and Trump's potential negotiations with Putin for Russia's withdrawal from Syria could further complicate the geopolitical landscape [c27b186c].