Despite positive economic indicators, many Americans perceive the economy negatively, which poses a challenge for President Joe Biden's re-election campaign. While inflation is down, wages are growing, and jobs are plentiful, a majority of Americans believe the economy is shrinking and has fallen into recession. A recent poll conducted by Harris Poll suggests that partisanship drives Americans' views about the economy. The poll asked respondents a series of objective questions about the economy, such as whether it is shrinking or growing, whether the stock market is rising or falling, and whether inflation is increasing or decreasing. Less than half of the respondents answered these questions correctly. For example, 55 percent believed the economy is shrinking, when in fact it has been growing steadily for four years [80f71165]. The poll also found that Republicans had more negative perceptions of the economy than Democrats, challenging the preconception that Democrats are less informed about economic matters. Democratic strategists suggest that messaging should focus on the policies that led to economic improvement four years ago. However, the perception of inflation as a loss and the salience of rising prices at the grocery store contribute to the negative perception of the economy. This sentiment is driving political change and affecting self-perception in states like Texas, where a majority of people now think of themselves as worse off than others despite the state's better-than-average economic performance [e2a0718d] [2c1b17d5]. The author of the Harris Poll suggests that the disaggregated news environment, social media algorithms, and foreign disinformation campaigns contribute to the misperceptions about the economy [80f71165].
Both Democrats and Republicans have failed to effectively communicate the benefits of trade as a political issue. Americans are now less supportive of trade in the U.S. economy, but a majority still believes trade does more good than harm. However, trade is not a top concern for voters. Trade policy has been oversold and underperformed, leading to acceptance of protectionism. Neither party has a compelling narrative on how trade contributes to a stronger and more secure United States. The winner of the 2024 election has an opportunity to craft a new inclusive and equitable public bargain on trade [8282dbcb].