As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris is gaining significant support not only in the United States but also among Canadians. A recent Leger poll conducted from October 18 to 21, 2024, reveals that 64% of Canadians would vote for Harris if they had a say in the U.S. election, compared to only 21% who would support former President Donald Trump. The survey included 1,562 Canadians aged 18 or older, and notably, there is no margin of error due to non-probability sampling [c71be953].
The survey highlights a notable divide among Conservative voters, with 45% favoring Trump and 42% supporting Harris. Interestingly, Canadians aged 55 and older show a stronger preference for Harris, with 77% of this demographic indicating they would vote for her. Quebecers also demonstrate significant support, with 72% favoring Harris, while 70% of women express their preference for her candidacy [c71be953]. Furthermore, 70% of Canadians express interest in the U.S. election, and 62% believe that a Harris victory would be beneficial for Canada [c71be953].
In addition to Canadian support, The Economist recently reported that Harris is particularly favored among LGBTQ+ voters in the U.S., who are described as 'smitten' with her candidacy. Polling indicates that gay voters have delivered a remarkable 61-point lead for Harris, making being gay or lesbian the third-largest factor influencing voter support for her [db610225]. This strong backing reflects a historical connection between the Democratic Party and queer activism, contrasting sharply with Trump's conservative stance on LGBTQ+ issues, which has alienated many in the community [db610225].
Recent discussions among Arizona LGBTQIA+ high school and college students further illuminate the priorities of younger voters. Avery, a transgender nonbinary student, expressed concern over the potential loss of gender-affirming care due to the political climate, noting that Trump opposes such care while Harris supports the Equality Act. Alarmingly, 90% of LGBTQ+ youth report negative impacts from recent political developments, with 39% having considered suicide in the past year [1f58dfa9]. Axel, another transgender student, noted a strong support for Harris among peers, emphasizing the importance of understanding candidates' policies as the election approaches [1f58dfa9].
Canadians also prefer Harris over Trump on key issues such as climate change, where 68% favor her compared to just 14% for Trump, and trade relations, with 64% supporting Harris against 18% for Trump [c71be953]. However, there is a prevalent concern regarding potential election violence, with 65% of respondents expressing worry about this issue, particularly among those aged 55 and older (74%) and Liberal voters (81%) [c71be953]. Additionally, 42% of Canadians indicated they would not watch election night coverage, reflecting a degree of disinterest in the electoral process despite their opinions on the candidates [c71be953].
As both candidates ramp up their campaigns, the implications of their policies and the public's perception will play a crucial role in shaping the election's outcome. The growing interest from Canadians in the U.S. election reflects the interconnectedness of the two nations and the potential impact of the election results on Canadian interests [c71be953]. Meanwhile, Harris's recent town hall meetings have emphasized her economic vision and commitment to middle-class relief, while Trump continues to rally support among his base, particularly in battleground states [ebcd87a0].
As the election draws closer, the dynamics of voter support, particularly among marginalized communities like LGBTQ+ voters, will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the race [db610225]. Polling in Arizona on November 5, 2024, will further reveal the priorities of younger voters as they head to the polls from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. [1f58dfa9].