The impact of presidential elections on financial strategies and economic forecasts for the US
The past twelve months have been filled with highs and lows in life. Inflation in the United States is at 3.2% for October 2023. The unemployment rate in the United States has improved from 14.7% in April 2020 to 3.9% in November 2023. Attitude plays a significant role in shaping the future. A positive attitude and dedication to goals can overcome the negativity of the world. It is recommended to consult a fee-based CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional for financial planning strategies.
In April 2024, the U.S. economy added 175,000 new jobs, resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.9% [349ace47]. This positive development reflects the ongoing recovery of the U.S. labor market and signals a strengthening economy. The article emphasizes the importance of financial literacy and the need for it to be incorporated into school curriculums at an early age. It discusses various aspects of financial literacy, including budgeting, saving, investing, and understanding financial products. Financial literacy is linked to increased financial stability, reduced financial stress, and improved overall well-being. The article also highlights disparities in financial literacy among different demographic groups and calls for targeted financial education programs. The goal is to empower individuals to take control of their finances and achieve their long-term goals.
The biggest financial concern for families approaching the 2024 election is inflation, according to Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance poll. Other major economic problems include healthcare, the labor force, the federal deficit, and the surge of artificial intelligence. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic still linger, with 500,000 fewer people in the American workforce. Consumer sentiment is weak despite improving economic indicators. Experts suggest that addressing the trillion dollar federal deficit should focus on long-term incentives and reform rather than cuts, austerity, or bailouts. Tax reform, social program incentives, and smart immigration are recommended [4d2285ff].
A letter to the editor from Door County Pulse highlights the importance of fact-checking and selecting reliable sources of information [35f54e74]. The author mentions a study from NBC News that shows a divide in political preferences based on news sources. They also cite a Harris/Guardian poll that reveals misconceptions about the economy among Americans. The letter provides several facts about the economy, including the transfer of $50 trillion from the bottom 90% to the top 1% from 1981 to 2021. It states that the US GDP growth in 2021 was 5.8%, followed by 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. The unemployment rate has been under 4% for over two years, and inflation is currently at 3.4%. The letter acknowledges differing opinions on wage growth but mentions that it has surpassed inflation for the past 12 months. The S&P stock market index increased by about 24% in 2023 and over 12% this year. The author emphasizes the importance of facts and competent leadership.
The main focus of the US economy has shifted to the 2024 presidential election, as central banks are cutting rates and politicians are spending more, creating optimism for the election year. According to a report by Saxo, the US government's substantial debt issuance since 2022, amounting to USD 3 trillion, has resulted in only USD 2.4 trillion in nominal GDP growth. The report emphasizes the importance of developments in central bank policies, commodity markets, and currency dynamics, which are expected to impact investment strategies in the coming months. The report identifies opportunities in sectors like energy, healthcare, and financials but also warns of risks in the technology and real estate sectors. Despite the government's significant debt issuance, the lack of long-term economic expansion is a concern. The election remains a crucial factor, with central banks ready to cut rates at any sign of weakness and politicians eager to spend, creating an environment ripe for 'better-than-expected' economic data, which fuels election-year optimism.
The article 'Twelve Reasons I am Hopeful About Our Chances in November: Saturday's GNR' provides twelve reasons for hope about the chances in the November election. The reasons include a decrease in crime rates, a strong economy, low inflation, reduced wage inequality, positive polling trends for Biden, effective campaign ads, success in special elections, a diminishing ability to use the border as an issue, positive developments in Wisconsin and Michigan, and a general sense of optimism and determination. The article emphasizes the need for action and involvement to secure a victory in the election [5838967e].
The article 'Election year in America' discusses the current election year in America and the concerns and viewpoints surrounding it. Critics believe that American ascendency is on the decline due to high inflation, mounting debts, and trade protectionism. The youth is skeptical about shrinking jobs, climate change, and the aftermath of the pandemic. There are differences between Trump and Biden on issues such as immigration, healthcare, taxation, and China. The article also highlights rising despondency among US economic experts and the need for a change in financial policy. China's rise is a major concern for America, and South East Asian countries are trying to maintain a principled distance from both the US and China. Despite concerns, some experts perceive a rebirth of America through the potential of immigrants. They see the diversity and talent of immigrants as an underestimated potential for the country's future. The article is written by Prof. Ashok Kaul, a retired Emeritus Professor of Sociology at Banaras Hindu University.
The article 'Economic outlook in the face of uncertain election outcomes' discusses the economic outlook in the face of uncertain election outcomes, particularly focusing on the Eurozone and the US. The central scenario is a Eurozone take-off and a US soft landing, with expected convergence in growth rates. However, political uncertainties, such as the outcomes of the early parliamentary elections in France and the US presidential election, could impact this scenario. Other factors supporting growth include real wage gains, tourism, public policies, investment in the low-carbon transition, and the dissipation of the energy shock. The article also mentions the results of the European elections and the implications for Europe's agenda. The priorities for the next five years include a free and democratic Europe, a strong and secure Europe, and a prosperous and competitive Europe. The article highlights the uncertainties surrounding the practical implications of the election results and the need for compromises to move the agenda forward. The article also mentions the political impact of the election results in France, where snap parliamentary elections are scheduled. The article concludes by discussing the quarterly review of the economic situation and outlook in the major OECD economies, with the central scenario being a take-off by the Eurozone and a soft landing by the US economy. However, political uncertainties and the outcomes of the US presidential election and the Fed's monetary policy could pose downside risks to growth. On the other hand, factors supporting growth include real wage gains, tourism, monetary policy, the labor market, and investment in the low-carbon transition. [56acc3ef]. Pivotal elections in Britain and France this week and in the United States only 125 days from now are presenting voters with wildly different views on how to navigate economic uncertainty. Corporate debt issues in Canada soared in the second quarter, with $35.1 billion borrowed between April and June, nearly double the amount borrowed during the same period in 2023. The competing economic visions of Biden and Trump in the upcoming U.S. election differ significantly, with Trump favoring expanded tax cuts and high tariffs on imports, while Biden focuses on clean energy and the economy. The swing to the right in France, Europe, and the United States could lead to a new era of nativism, nationalism, and anti-globalization. Tesla reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, boosting investor outlook. Global stocks rose following comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggesting U.S. rate cuts might not be far off. [a98d2bb8]. As much as 80% of voters in key states say economics will define their decision in November. Key economic indicators remained steady through both Trump and Biden presidencies. The jobless rate was about 3.6% in 2019 when Trump took office and settled back under 4% for the past two years. Economic growth remained between 2.3% and 2.7% on a quarterly basis. Biden presided over the largest inflationary period of recent decades, with prices rising by at least 20%. Trump's strategy was to increase tariffs across the board, while Biden focused on protecting specific strategic industries. Trump favored tax cuts and significant government borrowing, while Biden plans to increase corporate taxes. Swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina will play a crucial role in defining the election results. [9a76fb0a]
Assessing a president’s management of the economy is always a tricky business. Trump claimed credit for the growth that ensued, but the promised surge of investment never materialized. Biden's economic record has been impressive, securing passage of the American Rescue Plan and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Trump's proposals would cause job losses, increase deficits, and raise tariffs. Biden's policies would lead to economic growth, investment in housing, and fighting climate change. On the question of who would be better for the economy, there is simply no debate. According to Bankrate, prices have risen 19.3% since Biden took office, almost four times faster than the 5% increase three years and five months into Trump’s term. Three years and five months into Biden’s term, the U.S. economy has created 15.6 million jobs, compared to job losses totaling 12.6 million for Trump. Biden has added $4.3 trillion to the national debt, while Trump approved twice as much during his full term in office ($8.4 trillion). Since Biden took office, the U.S. economy has grown 8.4% when adjusted for inflation, compared to a 6.5% growth rate for the same time period under Trump. However, the economy was growing at a similar speed to Biden’s before the pandemic. The S&P 500 stock index has risen 42.1% since Biden took office, compared to a 33.6% increase over the same time period for Trump. But stocks rose at a faster pace under the second and third year in Trump’s term than they did in Biden’s. Confidence in the economy and Americans’ overall personal financial situations has been slumping under Biden, as inflation stays stubborn and consumers’ paychecks lose ground to price increases. [e1eb195f]