The US Census Bureau reported that US business inventories remained unchanged in January, defying expectations of a 0.2% increase. This unexpected stagnation can be attributed to contrasting trends, with increases in stocks at retailers offset by declines at manufacturers and wholesalers [308db1e8].
Retail inventories saw a 0.4% increase in February, following a 0.3% rise in the prior month. Retail inventories excluding autos rose by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations. However, on a yearly basis, retail inventories excluding autos are predicted to drop by 0.7% in February [abd06082] [308db1e8].
Motor vehicle inventories climbed by the expected 0.8% in January. Retail inventories excluding autos increased by 0.3%, in line with the previous month's report [308db1e8].
On the other hand, wholesale inventories experienced a 0.3% decline in January, while stocks at manufacturers dipped by 0.1%. These figures indicate a cautious approach by merchant wholesalers, potentially due to uncertainties in the economic landscape [308db1e8].
The unexpected stagnation in US business inventories has implications for GDP growth, as private inventory investment subtracted 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter's growth. Additionally, business sales declined by 1.3% in January, following a period of unchanged sales in December [308db1e8].
According to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, US business inventories rose 0.4% in February, following no change in January. This increase in inventories aligns with economists' expectations and suggests that inventory investment could contribute to economic growth in the first quarter. Year-on-year, inventories advanced 1.0% in February. Retail inventories increased by 0.6% in February, higher than the previously estimated 0.5%. Motor vehicle inventories climbed 0.8%, instead of 0.9% as previously estimated. Business sales rebounded 1.6% in February after falling 1.0% in January [ec3d448f] [308db1e8].
These mixed trends in business inventories reflect the complex economic conditions and uncertainties faced by businesses in the United States. Economists and policymakers will closely monitor these indicators to gain insights into the overall economic performance and inform their decision-making [308db1e8].
U.S. wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in March, confirming that inventory investment was a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Inventories dropped 2.3% on a year-on-year basis in March. Private inventory investment cut 0.35% percentage point from GDP growth in the first quarter. The economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the January-March quarter, the slowest pace in nearly two years. Sales at wholesalers declined 1.3% in March after rising 2.0% in February [186eaac6] [308db1e8].
Wholesale inventories in April rose more than expected to +0.2% M/M, reaching $896.3 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of -0.1% and a decrease of -0.4% in March. The inventories were down 1.6% from April 2023. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the percentage change from February 2024 to March 2024 remained unchanged at -0.4% [aa4dcac7] [308db1e8].
US wholesale inventories increased by 0.6% in May, surpassing April's 0.2% rise. This unexpected growth could act as a buffer against GDP impacts from a widening trade deficit. Despite a 0.5% year-over-year decline, there is cautious optimism as this accumulation might soften the GDP blow from a growing trade deficit. Second-quarter GDP growth is estimated to be around 2% annualized rate, higher than the 1.4% from the first quarter. The rise in wholesale inventories, including a 1.4% boost in motor vehicles and 0.5% excluding autos, shows improving market conditions. This buildup suggests that companies are readying for continued economic activity, which could stabilize growth projections amid global uncertainties [72a2a40b].
US wholesale inventories increased by 0.2% in June, following a 0.5% rise in May. This slight rise in wholesale inventories, particularly in motor vehicles, suggests that supply chains are preparing for future demand. Wholesale inventories contribute to economic growth and play a critical role in the US GDP equation. Private inventory investments added 0.82 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter, contributing to the US economy's growth rate doubling to 2.8% in Q2. Investors should monitor inventory levels as potential indicators of broader economic trends. Balancing growth and trade is crucial, with private inventory investments offsetting the impact of a wider trade gap. Keeping an eye on how inventories interact with trade and production will be important for predicting market directions [056fca72].
US wholesale inventories rose by 0.8% in June, driven by a 1.2% increase in durable goods inventories and a 0.3% rise in non-durable goods inventories. This rise in inventories suggests a slowdown in economic growth and reflects businesses' efforts to stockpile goods amid supply chain disruptions. However, the increase in inventories could lead to a decrease in production and investment. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the US economy, and the rise in inventories is a reflection of the challenges faced by businesses in navigating these disruptions [6e05f8ec].