The recent Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index has revealed troubling trends for Iowa's economy, with a score below 41 for December 2024, indicating a significant slump. This marks the seventh consecutive month in 2024 where the index has fallen below the growth neutral threshold of 50.0. The survey indicates that 45% of supply managers believe a recession is imminent in the first half of 2025, while 46.3% expect only slow growth, and a mere 8.7% foresee strong growth in the near future. [f3a475ea]
In addition to these concerning figures, wholesale price inflation has risen for the third consecutive month, further complicating the economic landscape. The U.S. economy experienced a loss of 73,000 jobs in 2024, reflecting a 0.6% decline, while the Mid-America region, which includes Iowa, lost 4,500 jobs, a 0.4% decline. Notably, Iowa's manufacturing exports have also taken a hit, dropping by $1.4 billion, or 9.9%, year-to-date compared to 2023. [f3a475ea]
The Creighton University survey, which covers nine states including Iowa, Arkansas, and Nebraska, has highlighted ongoing supply chain disruptions as a primary concern for businesses. As of the latest survey, 38.7% of supply managers in the region cited these disruptions as a significant challenge. The employment index remains particularly weak at 44.4, reflecting ongoing difficulties in job creation. [2c6eb8e7]
Looking ahead, concerns are rising over a potential longshoremen port strike scheduled for January 15th, which could further exacerbate the economic challenges faced by the region. The next survey results are anticipated on February 1, 2025, which will provide further insights into the evolving economic conditions in Iowa and the surrounding states. [f3a475ea]