As the U.S. stock markets closed for Thanksgiving on November 28, 2024, investors are keenly observing the effects of the holiday shopping season on market performance. Thanksgiving and Black Friday mark the beginning of significant retail activity, which traditionally influences stock prices, particularly in retail and e-commerce sectors. This year, Black Friday sales are projected to attract over 200.4 million shoppers, with an average spending of $321 per person, totaling over $966 billion [1ac98241].
On the last trading day before the holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 138.25 points (0.31%) to close at 44,722.06, while the S&P 500 dropped by 22.89 points (0.38%) to 5,998.74, and the NASDAQ Composite decreased by 115.10 points (0.60%) to 19,060.48 [b429df2b]. The decline was attributed to losses in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, particularly following disappointing earnings reports from major companies like Nvidia and Dell Technologies [b429df2b][1ac98241].
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown positive returns only half the time during the Thanksgiving to Black Friday period from 2001 to 2023, indicating mixed performance trends [1ac98241]. Similarly, the NIFTY50 index in India has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops in 2009 and 2021, reflecting the interconnectedness of global markets [1ac98241].
Analysts are hopeful for a 'Santa Claus rally' in December, which could provide a boost to the markets, contingent on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve decisions [2bc51b7f]. The rising trend of online shopping is also expected to benefit Indian IT and e-commerce sectors, with increased demand during Black Friday likely to boost Indian exports [1ac98241].
As the markets prepare to reopen after the holiday, the mixed economic signals and consumer spending trends will be closely monitored by investors [b429df2b].