The American dairy industry is facing significant challenges, particularly in light of immigration policy changes and proposed tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump that could drastically affect its workforce and economic viability. A recent analysis highlights that undocumented labor is crucial for this sector, with 89% of Idaho's dairy workers being foreign-born, many of whom are undocumented. This reliance on undocumented workers raises concerns among dairy farmers, especially as the industry grapples with rising costs and declining milk prices. For instance, Peter, a dairy owner, reports selling Class III milk for $15.50 per hundred pounds, a stark contrast to the significantly higher prices seen in the 1970s. [173b9cc0]
Idaho's farmers, small businesses, and migrant workers are bracing for potential economic challenges due to Trump's proposed tariffs of 10% to 25% on imports, which could impact key exports like dairy, beef, wheat, and potatoes by reducing their competitiveness in the market. Sean Ellis from the Idaho Farm Bureau Federation notes that agricultural exports have reached record levels, but the introduction of tariffs could trigger inflation and reduce consumer spending, further complicating the economic landscape for farmers. [acaf5729]
The economic implications of a crackdown on immigration could be severe, potentially leading to the deportation of 35,000 undocumented workers, which would heavily impact sectors reliant on labor, including dairy farming. The H-2A visa program, which allows for temporary agricultural workers, does not cover year-round dairy work, leaving many farms vulnerable to labor shortages. Rick Naerebout of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association emphasizes the importance of immigrant workers for agriculture, highlighting that the potential loss of this workforce could devastate many farms across the nation. [acaf5729]
Legislative efforts for immigration reform have stalled, exacerbating fears among dairy farmers about the future of their operations. During Trump's administration, a focus on deportations heightened these concerns, leading to uncertainty in the labor market. As the dairy industry continues to navigate these challenges, the potential economic impact of losing undocumented workers, combined with the threat of tariffs and retaliatory measures from countries like Mexico, could be devastating for Idaho's agricultural economy. [173b9cc0]