EUR/USD remains trapped in a constrained intraday cycle near 1.0750 as it continues to consolidate. On Tuesday, the EU CPI inflation print indicated a potential uptick in EU inflation. Wednesday brings a packed economic calendar with EU PMIs, PPIs, and US ADP jobs data. The pan-EU HCOB Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation held steady at 2.9% MoM in June. US JOLTS Job Openings rose slightly in May. The upcoming European market session will feature final Producer Price Index (PPI) and HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, while the US trading window will include the ISM Services PMI figure and the latest ADP Employment Change numbers. The pan-EU Composite PMI for June is expected to remain unchanged at 50.8. May's European PPI is forecasted to improve to -4.1% YoY from the previous -5.7%. US ADP Employment Change in June is expected to rise slightly to 160K from the previous 152K. June's ISM Services PMI is expected to cool further to 52.5 MoM from the previous 53.8. The US Jobless Claims, a timelier indicator on the state of the labor market, will be closely watched. The US ISM Services PMI is expected to be at 52.5. The Challenger Job Cuts report is a low-tier indicator and not a market-moving release. The ADP report could see some market reaction. The Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI is expected to be at 45.8. EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation pattern, with intraday price buoyed by a supply zone below 1.0680. The pair is cycling median bids near the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0725.
Yesterday, the Eurozone CPI inflation report showed that headline inflation ticked lower to 2.5%, approaching the 2% ECB target, however, core CPI remained stubbornly sticky at 2.9%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that while inflation is on a deflationary path, the labor market remains robust amidst ongoing rebalancing. The US JOLTs data for May exceeded expectations, with job openings rising to 8.140 million from 7.910 million. The upcoming US Jobless Claims and ADP report are set to provide further insights into the US labor market, which is showing signs of weakening. The US ISM Services PMI is forecasted to decline to 52.5. Yesterday, the price action in markets was mixed, with risk sentiment being off in the first half but reversing in the US session and sending stock markets higher. Gold remains rangebound as the US dollar remains uncertain, with XAU bouncing between two moving averages that act as support and resistance. The NZD/USD pair has frequently bounced back from the consolidation zone near the critical support level of 0.61, but market dynamics shifted last week as sellers took charge, potentially paving the way for a decline towards the 0.60 zone. Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for the past two weeks, with prices now settling around $60,000. Ethereum has experienced significant volatility since the launch of its ETF, reaching a high of $3,832.50. The gold price remains rangebound as the US dollar remains uncertain, with XAU bouncing between two moving averages that act as support and resistance, offering decent trading opportunities. The US dollar gained strength, exerting significant downward pressure on gold and driving it below $2,320 earlier today. The NZD/USD pair has frequently bounced back from the consolidation zone near the critical support level of 0.61, but market dynamics shifted last week as sellers took charge, pushing the market below this crucial level and breaking through the 0.61 mark. Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for the past two weeks, with prices now settling around $60,000. Ethereum has experienced significant volatility since the launch of its ETF, reaching a high of $3,832.50. The US Jobless Claims and ADP report are set to provide further insights into the US labor market, which is showing signs of weakening. The US ISM Services PMI is forecasted to decline to 52.5. Yesterday, the price action in markets was mixed, with risk sentiment being off in the first half but reversing in the US session and sending stock markets higher. [a58f54b7]