As the U.S. seafood industry grapples with the implications of the incoming Trump administration, the Indian seafood sector is also navigating its own set of challenges in the U.S. market. In 2024, Indian seafood faced significant hurdles, including a 5.77% countervailing duty and ongoing investigations into alleged dumping practices, which have severely impacted shrimp export profitability. Reports indicate that marine product exports from India dropped by 17% compared to 2023 [80a043b1].
Despite these setbacks, analysts remain optimistic about a potential recovery in global shrimp demand, particularly as Ecuador, a major competitor, is experiencing a slowdown in production. This situation could allow Indian exporters to gain market share in the U.S. as they adapt to the changing landscape [80a043b1].
Simultaneously, the U.S. seafood industry is bracing for significant changes under President-elect Donald Trump, who is perceived by some as a 'fishermen's friend.' His administration is expected to prioritize the needs of fishermen and oppose offshore wind expansion, which could threaten fishing grounds. However, concerns loom over Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Canadian seafood imports, which could disrupt the market and lead to higher prices for consumers [d12bbf79].
Industry representatives in the U.S. are particularly worried about how these tariffs might affect their operations, especially since Canada supplies about 80% of the seafood consumed in the U.S. The potential for increased costs could have a ripple effect on the availability of seafood, particularly popular items like lobster [d12bbf79].
Moreover, the leadership of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under Trump raises concerns about potential deregulation that could harm fish stocks and undermine sustainability efforts. Conservationists are urging adherence to scientific guidelines to protect marine ecosystems, while industry stakeholders hope for better representation in decision-making processes [d12bbf79].
As both the U.S. and Indian seafood industries face their respective challenges, the outlook for recovery remains cautiously optimistic. Analysts anticipate a robust recovery for Indian seafood exports in 2025, contingent on the resolution of current trade issues and the evolving dynamics of the U.S. market [80a043b1].