In response to the Ukraine invasion and increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan, Japan has abandoned decades of pacifism and is taking a more assertive stance in regional security. The security of East Asia and the stability of the global economy rely on Japan, which has been a cornerstone for Asian security since the early days of the Cold War. Japan's shift from pacifism to 'normality' has been a culmination of decades of drift and is driven by its desire to shape regional and global geopolitics [e186b32b].
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida describes the security environment in East Asia as the most complex since World War II. He emphasizes the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance and the need to strengthen defense capabilities to protect Japan's people and territory. Kishida also discusses the challenges facing Japan's economy, including the declining birthrate and aging population, and the need to implement policies to raise wages and increase productivity. He addresses the security concerns posed by China's military expansion and North Korea's nuclear and missile development, expressing a desire for peaceful resolutions through dialogue. Kishida also mentions the possibility of meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and emphasizes the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He highlights Japan's investment in green and digital transformation and the need to maintain the competitiveness of Japanese companies. Kishida concludes by discussing the importance of raising disposable income and minimizing the impact of price increases to protect the lives of the people and the future of the Japanese economy [7058fb3d] [e186b32b].
Japan is increasing its military spending and taking on a regional leadership role to respond to a rising China, relative US decline, and increasingly isolationist American public opinion. The US-Japanese alliance, based on the US-Japan Security Treaty, has defined Asian security, with the US having a continuous military presence in Japan since 1945. Japan's response to the changing geopolitical landscape includes lifting the ban on arms exports, initiating regional security partnerships, and participating in collective self-defense operations alongside allies. Japan is also exploring alternative security measures as doubts about the strength and reliability of the US-Japan alliance have arisen [e186b32b] [6820bc83] [e28d8e95].
The future of the region and the global economy hangs in the balance as Japan seeks to balance China, manage North Korea, and maintain its regional position. The US sees a growing role for Japan in countering China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region and is relying on Japan to strengthen its regional defense posture. Japan hosts more US troops than any other country, and the US-Japan alliance reassures other Asia-Pacific countries concerned about China. However, Japan's military support for Taiwan in the event of an attack from China remains uncertain. While some unofficial voices have advocated for stronger support for Taiwan, Japan is unlikely to take on a more active role due to domestic constraints, including opposition from political parties and public sentiment against military involvement. The lack of public support and the divide over honoring the alliance with the United States during a Taiwan conflict further constrain Japan's military support for Taiwan [e186b32b] [839cc064].
The evolving geopolitical landscape, including the threat of a nuclear China and North Korea's growing arsenal, has left Japan with limited options for its security. The fraying American 'nuclear umbrella' and doubts about the strength and reliability of the US-Japan alliance have further contributed to Japan's considerations of developing nuclear weapons. While Japan has historically opposed nuclear weapons due to its experience as the only country to be victimized by atomic bombs, recent events have raised doubts about the alliance, prompting Japan to explore alternative security measures [6820bc83] [e28d8e95].
Japan's shift from pacifism to a more assertive stance has significant implications for regional security and the balance of power in East Asia. As tensions continue to rise, Japan's role in countering China's influence and maintaining stability in the region will be closely watched [e186b32b].