As the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, approaches, the potential policies of candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are poised to significantly impact both the airlines and aerospace sectors as well as the energy landscape. Analysts suggest that a Harris presidency would likely continue the Biden administration's support for Ukraine and promote sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) initiatives, which are critical for reducing the aviation industry's carbon footprint [fa9cd38d]. In contrast, Trump has indicated he may impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports and 20% on other foreign goods, which could disrupt supply chains and affect the availability of raw materials essential for aerospace manufacturing [fa9cd38d].
In the energy sector, Trump and Harris have starkly different policies. Trump denies climate change and promotes fossil fuel development, aiming for low-cost energy and rapid approval of new power plants. Meanwhile, Harris supports clean energy investments, emphasizing the need for significant investments in electric vehicles and battery technology, which have surged since 2021 [dc921689]. This divergence in energy policy is critical, as analysts predict a potential 56% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 under a Harris administration, while Trump's policies could hinder such progress [dc921689].
The competitive landscape of the airline industry may also shift depending on the election outcome. While both candidates are expected to provide political support for the aerospace sector, Trump's proposed tariffs could particularly impact Boeing's sales, given the company's reliance on international markets [fa9cd38d]. Furthermore, military spending is anticipated to increase under either candidate, which could benefit defense contractors and related industries [fa9cd38d].
However, the approach to airline consolidation may differ significantly between the two candidates. Harris is likely to scrutinize mergers more closely, potentially leading to a more regulated environment, whereas Trump may adopt a more favorable stance towards consolidation, which could reshape the competitive dynamics within the airline industry [fa9cd38d].
Both candidates also have contrasting views on climate initiatives, particularly regarding the promotion of sustainable aviation fuel. Harris is expected to prioritize environmental policies, while Trump's focus may lean more towards economic growth without stringent climate regulations [fa9cd38d]. As the election draws near, stakeholders in the aviation, aerospace, and energy sectors are closely monitoring these developments, recognizing that the implications of either candidate's policies will resonate throughout these industries and beyond.