On October 1, 2024, Israel launched its first land operation against Hezbollah since 2006, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This operation, supported by artillery and air strikes, aims to reclaim territory and facilitate the return of displaced residents to northern Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly leveraging this military action for political negotiations, as it coincides with the anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack [1f2aea5d].
The operation comes on the heels of a series of Israeli air strikes in Beirut and across Lebanon, which have resulted in significant casualties and displacement. Just days earlier, on September 30, an Israeli air strike in Beirut killed at least two people, while air strikes across Lebanon claimed over 105 lives [f5cd38d8]. The recent escalation has seen over 1,000 Lebanese killed and approximately one million displaced in the past two weeks alone [f5cd38d8].
Former Israeli security officials have indicated that the military focus will likely be limited to degrading Hezbollah's anti-tank capabilities and pushing their forces north of the Litani River. This strategic shift reflects a broader change in Middle Eastern power dynamics, as noted by John Sawers, former chief of MI6 [1f2aea5d].
In an opinion piece published on October 6, 2024, Amin Saikal argues that Israel's invasion is reminiscent of past military campaigns in Lebanon, particularly those in 1982 and 2006, which ultimately failed to eliminate Hezbollah [6c4b15a7]. Saikal highlights that Netanyahu's government has received an $8.7 billion aid package from the U.S. to support the Lebanon campaign, and he draws parallels between Netanyahu's actions and former U.S. President George W. Bush's interventions in the Middle East, suggesting that brute force rarely substitutes for diplomacy [6c4b15a7].
The current conflict has raised alarms about Lebanon's potential for total state collapse. The country is already grappling with severe economic crises, with GDP plummeting from US$59 billion in 2018 to US$22 billion today and a staggering 95% depreciation of the Lebanese pound. Nearly half the population lives below the poverty line, exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure and high refugee pressures [719c296d]. Imad El-Anis, an Associate Professor at Nottingham Trent University, emphasizes the urgent need for de-escalation to prevent further collapse, warning that the ongoing violence could lead to a second civil war and further destabilize the region [719c296d].
In response to the ongoing violence, U.S. President Joe Biden has reiterated the importance of preventing an all-out war in the region, highlighting the international community's concerns regarding the escalating conflict and its potential to destabilize the area further [f5cd38d8]. Meanwhile, reports have emerged of Russia preparing to supply advanced anti-ship missiles to the Houthis, which could complicate the situation further [24b201f9].
As the conflict continues to unfold, the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls for ceasefires and diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region becoming increasingly urgent [f5cd38d8]. Hezbollah is expected to resist Israeli occupation despite suffering damage, and Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is focused on improving domestic conditions while supporting Hezbollah [6c4b15a7]. The international community is closely monitoring these developments, fearing that the violence could lead to a broader regional war involving multiple actors, including Iran and Hezbollah [363dc639].