As the prospect of a second Trump administration looms, China finds itself in a more advantageous position compared to four years ago. Terry Su, writing for the South China Morning Post, highlights that Beijing is strategically better prepared to handle the potential challenges posed by Trump's return to power. With the Republican Party maintaining control, Trump may pursue his campaign promises with greater freedom, including the implementation of tariffs that could significantly impact China's economy [60b2cbc5].
Despite the potential for tariffs to reduce China's GDP growth by 1% or more, Su suggests that China is likely to endure these pressures and emerge resilient. The nation has made substantial strides in technological advancement, continuing to develop its capabilities despite US efforts to curb its growth [60b2cbc5].
However, a new analysis by Ng Weng Hoong from Eurasia Review presents a more complex picture of China's internal challenges under Xi Jinping's leadership. While Trump's second term may initially seem to weaken China, Xi's consolidation of power since 2012 has led to significant internal dissent and economic challenges, including high youth unemployment rates ranging from 15% to 18% [09946fb7].
Xi's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, while aimed at expanding China's influence, has faced criticism for creating debt traps for participating countries, further complicating China's international relations [09946fb7]. Additionally, China's military budget is set to rise by 7.2% to RMB1.665 trillion (US$233 billion) in 2024, indicating a continued focus on military expansion despite economic pressures [09946fb7].
Moreover, Xi's governance style has strained foreign relations, particularly with countries like India and in the Middle East, which could hinder China's global standing as it navigates the potential return of Trump [09946fb7]. Overall, while the narrative surrounding China's economic resilience and strategic positioning continues to evolve, Xi's leadership presents significant challenges that could undermine China's rise in the face of external pressures from a Trump administration [60b2cbc5][09946fb7].