Recent findings from Princeton University indicate that natural gas electricity generation is projected to grow significantly into the 2030s, even within a Net-Zero scenario. This marks a shift from previous expectations, which anticipated a decline in natural gas usage to 800 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030 and further down to 400 TWh by 2035. Richard Meyer from the American Gas Association (AGA) highlighted that despite the record growth of renewable energy sources, natural gas remains a critical component of the energy landscape due to its lower emissions profile—approximately half that of coal—and its affordability [1bbcc9bc].
In 2023, U.S. energy consumption decreased by approximately 1% compared to 2022, while GDP increased by 2.9%. Notably, residential electricity demand dropped by 5%, and the commercial and industrial sectors saw a 3% decline. Coal consumption fell by 17%, translating to a reduction of 1.7 quadrillion BTUs. Meanwhile, nuclear, solar, and biomass energy consumption rose by about 1% each [5cf18231].
Natural gas plays a vital role in supporting renewable energy by providing reliable baseload capacity, which is essential for maintaining grid stability as more intermittent renewable sources, such as wind and solar, are integrated into the energy mix. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has mandated that new natural gas plants must reduce emissions by 90% by 2030, further emphasizing the fuel's role in decarbonization efforts [1bbcc9bc].
This updated modeling from Princeton reflects a broader recognition of natural gas's importance in achieving climate goals while ensuring energy reliability. As the energy sector evolves, the balance between renewable energy growth and the continued use of natural gas will be crucial for meeting both environmental and economic objectives [1bbcc9bc].
Interestingly, the state-level trends in the U.S. reveal a divide: 11 states have successfully reduced fossil energy consumption while increasing non-fossil energy sources, whereas another 11 states have increased fossil energy usage, primarily due to the closure of nuclear power plants [5cf18231].
In Nigeria, the government faces increasing pressure to reduce gas emissions, particularly in light of new European Union regulations that impose methane emissions limits on fossil fuel imports starting in 2030. Despite the introduction of the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, gas flaring remains a significant issue, with Nigeria ranking among the top methane-emitting countries globally. The country has lost an estimated $16 trillion due to gas flaring over the past decade, which not only wastes energy but also poses severe environmental and health risks [3c0c5740].
To combat these challenges, Nigeria has entered into a partnership with NIGUS International and Beijing Zhogmin Xinjunlong New Energy Technology Company Limited, aimed at converting flared gas into Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) synthetic diesel and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) for export. This initiative aligns with President Bola Tinubu's directive to end gas flaring and promote sustainable energy production [01b25d12].
As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between natural gas growth and emissions reductions remains a critical focus for policymakers and industry leaders alike. The developments in both the U.S. and Nigeria illustrate the complex dynamics of transitioning to a cleaner energy future while ensuring economic viability and energy security.