As Thailand gears up for 2025, the economic landscape is marked by both optimism and caution. The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) recently upgraded its export growth forecast for 2024 to 5%, buoyed by a strong performance in December, where exports are expected to rise by over 4.5%. However, the TNSC has highlighted potential risks stemming from the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, which may reignite trade tensions and currency volatility, affecting Thailand's export-dependent economy [dc280c91].
In a parallel analysis, InnovestX Securities has provided insights into the broader economic trends expected in 2025. They forecast high volatility and low returns for the global economy, driven by four key factors: Transition towards a soft landing, Trump’s resurgence of America First policies, advancements in Technology particularly in AI and green tech, and ongoing Turmoil from geopolitical conflicts. For Thailand, InnovestX projects a GDP growth of 2.7% and a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed companies, with the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index targeted at 1,550 points [aab50372].
To navigate these uncertainties, InnovestX recommends a shift from traditional value investing to a more trading-focused investment strategy. Analysts suggest that investors consider gold and high-quality bonds as safe havens, while also selectively investing in U.S. mid- and small-cap stocks and emerging markets [aab50372].
The TNSC has called for quarterly meetings to address trade volatility and has urged the Thai government to bolster funding for trade activities, aiming to sustain export growth amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape [dc280c91]. As Thailand prepares for the challenges and opportunities of 2025, the emphasis will be on leveraging strengths in key export sectors while adapting investment strategies to the changing global economic environment [aab50372].