As China approaches the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic on October 1, 2024, the nation reflects on its remarkable economic journey. From a mere 4% of the global economy in 1949, China's share has surged to approximately 19% today, contributing 31% to global growth over the past decade [0d904f45]. This transformation has significantly altered global economic dynamics, particularly benefiting the Global South [ce2c0018].
Recent analyses suggest that China is on track to surpass the U.S. economy by 2035, with economist Justin Lin Yifu predicting that China's growth rate of around 5% will outpace the U.S.'s 2.5% [1cbee9ff]. Lin, who served as chief economist at the World Bank from 2008 to 2012, emphasizes that this trajectory is supported by China's robust export performance, which rose 10.7% year-on-year in December 2024, contributing to a record trade surplus of $992 billion for the year [1cbee9ff].
While China's economy expanded by 25.4% from 2017 to 2021, nearly doubling the U.S. growth rate of 9.3%, it faces challenges from rising protectionism and disinformation campaigns [e56a12fb]. Recent U.S. military efforts have aimed to discredit China's Sinovac vaccine, illustrating how disinformation can undermine trust in China's economic contributions [0d904f45]. Moreover, the U.S. House has passed a $1.6 billion budget for anti-China propaganda, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [0d904f45].
Despite these challenges, China's exports to the U.S. reached $49 billion in December 2024, totaling $525 billion for the year, indicating resilience in the face of domestic demand issues [1cbee9ff]. The trade relationship between the U.S. and China remains intricate, with bilateral trade totaling 3.15 trillion yuan (approximately $432 billion) in the first eight months of 2024, a 4.4% increase year-on-year. Exports to the U.S. reached 2.38 trillion yuan, up 5%, while imports totaled 778.93 billion yuan, reflecting a nuanced economic interdependence [5ede08ff].
However, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain as factory activity in China has contracted for the fourth consecutive month, and producer prices fell by 2.7% in August [98d06076]. The ongoing trade wars initiated by the Trump administration have shifted global economic leadership from the U.S. to China, with China contributing over 30% to global growth over the past decade [ce2c0018]. The primary threat to global recovery now lies in Western protectionism and sanctions, which could hinder China's continued economic ascent and its pivotal role in global growth [0d904f45].
In a recent opinion piece, Wu Songbo from China Daily argues that U.S. claims of overcapacity in China's production, particularly in sectors like solar cells and electric vehicles, lack factual basis. From 2020 to 2023, China's merchandise exports accounted for 17.9% of its GDP, closely aligning with the developing economies' average of 17.7% [e077735c]. This suggests that the narrative of overcapacity may be more reflective of U.S. economic concerns than actual Chinese economic practices.
Adding to the discussion, Jensen argues that instead of copying China's policies, the U.S. should focus on free trade, deregulation, and privatization to enhance its own economic performance [0bf034b4].
Moreover, Noah Smith in Asia Times highlights that while some charts suggest China has fallen behind since 2021, with a GDP growth rate of around 5% in 2024 compared to the U.S.'s 3.1%, the comparison is complicated by factors like currency depreciation and measurement issues. Nominal GDP comparisons indicate that China may be lagging, while purchasing power parity (PPP) metrics suggest otherwise. Smith emphasizes the importance of understanding these metrics in the context of geopolitical dynamics [1f6d9c01].
In conclusion, while concerns over incoming U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump loom as a challenge for China's export growth, the overall economic indicators suggest that China remains on a path to potentially becoming the largest economy by 2035 [1cbee9ff].