The recent leadership change in Cambodia and Thailand has presented opportunities for the United States to reset its relationships with Phnom Penh and Bangkok. In Cambodia, after freezing $18 million in foreign aid to protest the election, the US later unfroze the funds when Prime Minister Hun Manet was sworn in. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink's visit to Phnom Penh in late February demonstrated the delicate balance the US is pursuing, seeking areas of agreement while still prioritizing its goals since helping broker peace in Cambodia 30 years ago. However, concerns remain about Cambodia's shift away from democracy and China's military presence at Cambodia's main naval base, which hinder the warming of relations between the US and Cambodia [f7b729e5].
In Thailand, the rise of China has forced the US to reconsider its approach, prioritizing geopolitical interests over democratic values. Thailand has drawn closer to China for economic reasons, but it continues to balance ties with the US. Thailand increasingly turned to China for military aid, joint military exercises, and military education for Thai soldiers. Despite this, Thailand and the US signed the US-Thailand Communique on Strategic Alliance and Partnership in 2022, and Thailand aims to make the US the leading investor in the country. However, Washington is concerned about Thailand's growing closeness to Beijing and is intent on preventing Bangkok from tilting closer to China. The US hopes that China's aggressive military expansion in Southeast Asia will make Thailand feel threatened and tilt closer to Washington [645f70fa].
The EU's 'all-carrot, no-stick' approach towards the Hun Manet regime in Cambodia is harming both the people of Cambodia and Europe's values. The EU ended Cambodia's preferential treatment in 2020 due to human rights concerns but did not send observers to monitor the country's elections. The ruling Cambodian People's Party secured another term, and a dynastic handover of power between Hun Sen and his son, Hun Manet, was formalized. The EU's muted response effectively gave the regime the freedom to act as it pleases. This approach is pushing Cambodia further into the orbit of China, with growing evidence of China establishing a naval base at Ream and conducting joint military exercises with Cambodia. Cambodia's role in China's Belt and Road initiative is critical to China's ambitions in the region. The EU has set out a €300bn 'Global Gateway' package to strengthen its relationship with China, but action to date has primarily focused on domestic interests. However, there are signs of a potential shift in EU policy, with new trade tariffs on China and calls for fostering cooperation with a 'Union of Democracies' in the region. Pressure must also be brought to bear on China's allies, including Cambodia, to safeguard democracy and human rights. The consequences of failing to push back against China's influence could spell trouble for regional and international stability [abcc415d].