As the U.S. presidential elections on November 3, 2024, approach, the implications for global stability and domestic unity are becoming increasingly pronounced. The main candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, represent contrasting visions for America's future. Paul Knott from The Hull Story highlights that the division among Americans is nearly complete, with urban areas leaning Democratic and rural regions supporting Republicans, creating two distinct political worlds [3da67236].
Recent polling indicates that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, raising concerns among European officials about potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy depending on the election outcome. Alexandra Brzozowski from EURACTIV reports that pessimistic views suggest a return to unpredictability and economic nationalism under Trump, while more optimistic perspectives hope for continued support for NATO and transatlantic relations if Harris wins [d906ffc4].
Concerns over U.S. democratic instability have escalated since the contentious 2020 election, making the upcoming vote critical for international relations. Tanya Dendrinos from SBS News notes that the Biden administration has provided over $64.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine since February 2022, a commitment that may be jeopardized if Trump returns to power [619bb631].
In addition to Ukraine, the U.S. has also provided substantial military assistance to Israel, amounting to at least $17.9 billion since the outbreak of conflict on October 7, 2023. Trump's approach may shift towards a more aggressive stance on China, which could further complicate U.S. relations with its allies in Europe and Asia [619bb631].
Alicia GarcÃa Herrero, in her analysis for EURACTIV, emphasizes that the elections will have a profound impact on Europe, particularly if Biden is succeeded by Harris or if Trump returns to power. She argues that the current U.S. foreign policy has shifted towards a unified stance against China, a trend likely to continue regardless of the election outcome [2c3a28f0].
The Centre for European Reform's analysis by Aslak Berg and Zach Meyers indicates that both candidates are expected to maintain a tough approach towards China, which may lead to increased tariffs on EU exports. This economic relationship, valued at over €1 trillion annually, underscores the importance of transatlantic ties [fe821488].
Goldman Sachs estimates that Trump's policies could reduce Europe's GDP by 1%, highlighting the urgency for the EU to enhance cooperation and address trade tensions with China [fe821488]. H.M. Sabbir Hossain from Modern Diplomacy adds that the U.S. has less than 5% of the world's population but exerts significant global influence, particularly in the context of non-traditional warfare strategies employed by China [b6b5db6a].
The potential for a Trump presidency raises alarms about the future of NATO and U.S. alliances, especially in light of Russian aggression. Senator Chris Murphy's remarks at the Atlantic Council reflect these concerns, emphasizing the need for Europe to adapt its strategies in anticipation of a changing U.S. landscape [24194f85].
In a significant development, a recent analysis from Modern Diplomacy by Samar Fatima Chaudhry discusses the implications of a Trump victory for Pakistan. If Trump were to win, it would mark his return as the second president to serve non-consecutive terms, with a platform emphasizing 'America First.' This could lead to a transactional approach in U.S.-Pakistan relations, focusing on mutual interests like counterterrorism, while potentially reducing foreign aid, which could impact Pakistan's economy [67e05b2a].
Trump's previous term saw a harsh stance on Pakistan, including military aid suspension, and he initiated peace talks with the Afghan Taliban, relying on Pakistan as a facilitator. A second term may lead to shifts in U.S. foreign policy that could affect Pakistan's economic and diplomatic balance, particularly in relation to China [67e05b2a].
As early voting in Georgia shows record turnout, the stakes are high for both candidates in addressing pressing domestic issues such as race relations and inflation, which are becoming increasingly critical in the lead-up to the elections. Many Americans are feeling economic strain despite official statistics showing a strong economy, as inflation has outpaced wage growth in most counties since Covid [51ec7be1][3da67236].
In a recent opinion piece by Tom Cronin and Bob Loevy in the Colorado Springs Gazette, they express hopes for national healing and unification post-election, regardless of who wins. They anticipate about 80 million voters for both Trump and Harris, while noting that 82 million eligible voters may not participate. The authors stress the need for a bipartisan spirit in government, emphasizing the importance of securing borders, sensible immigration policies, and addressing income inequality and economic challenges [50211ac3].
Moreover, Cronin and Loevy call for a national commission on constitutionalism and propose that the nation prepares for the impact of AI. They also highlight the need to combat antisemitism and other prejudices, strengthen NATO, and stabilize Social Security. Their piece concludes with a call for prayer for the nation as it navigates these turbulent times [50211ac3].
The outcome of the election will not only shape U.S. domestic policy but also have profound implications for global diplomacy and the future of international relations. The Kathmandu Post's Dunn emphasizes that 2024 is termed by the UN as 'the biggest election year in human history,' with 3.7 billion people voting in 72 countries. Trump's Republican party may break from traditional U.S. foreign policy, while Kamala Harris represents a more international agenda. Trump's proposed 20% universal tariff on foreign imports, with potential tariffs on China reaching 60-200%, could harm the U.S. economy and global climate efforts. Additionally, there are concerns that Trump may end U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine, further destabilizing global governance [9c53f7fa].
In light of his candidacy, Trump's key policies have emerged as focal points for his campaign. According to Rozina Sabur from The Telegraph, Trump aims to make the election a referendum on the Biden-Harris administration, emphasizing issues such as the economy, immigration, and law and order. His immigration policy includes mass deportations of illegal immigrants, resuming construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall, and deploying troops against Mexican cartels. Trump also plans to replace career civil servants with political appointees and abolish the Department of Education.
On economic matters, Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all imports and plans to cut federal income tax. He supports fossil fuel production and opposes electric vehicles, advocating for a tough-on-crime approach and an America First foreign policy, which suggests reduced support for NATO and Ukraine. Regarding abortion, he supports state-level decisions and has mixed views on a national ban, while promising to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and improve pharmaceutical deals. Additionally, he supports tax credits for family caregivers [9346215].
In a recent campaign rally on November 4, 2024, Trump announced that he would impose tariffs on Mexico and China to combat fentanyl trafficking into the U.S., a move that has raised eyebrows among economists and political analysts alike. Both candidates campaigned in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state with 19 electoral votes, where Harris could become the first female president if elected, while Trump would be the first convicted felon to hold the office. Joe Rogan's endorsement of Trump on the eve of the election has added another layer of intrigue to the race, as over 80 million voters had already cast ballots by November 5, 2024. Concerns about delayed election results have been raised due to varying state laws, but both candidates expressed confidence in their chances of victory. The election is being described as historically tight and consequential [e3c27ee8].
European political figures are voicing concerns over the election's potential impact on climate change and global democracy. Sergey Lagodinsky warns of a rollback in climate policy and the emboldening of authoritarian regimes if Trump wins. Daniel Freund emphasizes the election's division and its implications for European politics, while Chiara Martinelli calls for the EU to recommit to climate efforts regardless of the election outcome. David McAllister and others stress the importance of transatlantic relations and NATO cooperation amidst rising global tensions [41a43803].