How Will Candidates Address Arizona's Housing Affordability Crisis?

In Arizona, the soaring home prices and economic growth are significantly influencing voter sentiment as the 2024 presidential election approaches. Residents like Karl Peterson have experienced drastic increases in living costs, with his rent skyrocketing from $625 to $1,800 over nine years. This financial strain has left many feeling disillusioned with the political landscape, believing that neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump adequately addresses their concerns regarding housing affordability. Harris has proposed tax breaks for first-time homebuyers, while Trump has suggested that mass deportations could ease housing shortages. However, many voters remain skeptical about the effectiveness of these proposals. [f8a0e8d7]

Housing affordability has become a top concern for voters nationwide, with 24% of likely renters citing housing costs as their main economic issue. In Arizona, home prices in Maricopa County have nearly doubled since 2016, with the median price peaking at $500,767 in July 2022. Nationally, home prices have surged by 45% from August 2020 to August 2024, and median home sale prices in swing states have increased nearly 40% since 2020. Current mortgage rates are just below 7%, and nearly half of U.S. renters are considered cost-burdened, further complicating the economic landscape. Additionally, the average income needed for a 10% down payment was $103,200 in 2022, which is 22% above the median household income. [8faf42fc][ea22080d][542def8f]

Mesa's mayor, John Giles, has publicly endorsed Harris, yet many voters express skepticism about both candidates' commitments to addressing their economic challenges. Notably, Maricopa County has seen the highest job gains nationally, indicating a robust local economy. However, the average U.S. household worth exceeded $1 million in 2022, while the median household net worth stood at $192,900, further emphasizing the wealth disparity in the country. [f0b64c25]

As the election nears, the combination of high home prices and limited economic prospects continues to shape the political discourse in Arizona. Mark Cuban's endorsement of Harris, criticizing Trump's tariffs, adds another layer to the evolving narrative. Many residents feel unheard and uncertain about their future, with economic issues becoming pivotal as the election approaches on November 5, 2024. [f0b64c25]

In addition to housing concerns, tax policies proposed by the candidates are also stirring debate among Arizonans. Vice President Kamala Harris has suggested raising the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%, which would increase Arizona's corporate tax rate to 32.9%, surpassing those of Mexico and China. Economists warn that such corporate taxes could lead to wage losses of up to $527 per employee in Arizona. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump advocates for a 20% universal tariff and significantly higher tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, which could result in slower economic growth and increased prices for consumers. Both candidates' tax plans may offset any tax relief for families, indicating a need for more sound economic solutions. [f6fd4d95]

Harris has proposed a plan that includes $25,000 in down-payment support and a $10,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, aiming to build 3 million new housing units and block algorithm-driven rent pricing. In contrast, Trump links rising housing costs to undocumented immigrants and promises to repurpose federal land for affordable housing. He also suggests reducing regulations for home builders and aims to lower mortgage rates to around 3%. Despite these proposals, 64% of American adults owned homes in 2023, and only 8% of homeowners consider housing costs a top issue, reflecting a complex landscape of voter priorities. Furthermore, there is a shortage of 7 million affordable homes across the U.S., which exacerbates the housing crisis. [8faf42fc][ea22080d][542def8f]

Tyler Schipper, an associate professor at the University of St. Thomas, recently discussed the economic proposals from both candidates, emphasizing the critical role of affordable housing in enhancing labor market engagement and addressing mental health issues. He noted that lower interest rates can tighten housing markets and drive up prices, while the Federal Reserve's cautious approach aims to manage inflation. Schipper's insights highlight the broader economic implications of the candidates' proposals as voters weigh their options. [16ea8f4a]