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Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago branch of the Federal Reserve, reiterated his stance on the importance of data in determining whether to cut interest rates. In an interview with PBS, Goolsbee emphasized that more data is needed to justify rate cuts, stating that the economic data doesn't have to change, but there needs to be more of it. He believes that if the data continues to show positive trends, the U.S. economy will be on the path to normalization. Goolsbee did not provide a specific timing for the rate cut, but mentioned that there are still seven weeks of data before the next policy meeting [a7ce553f].
Goolsbee's comments align with his previous statements about the need for clear evidence of inflation reaching the target rate before changing the key policy rate. However, some economists, such as Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, believe that recent strong GDP figures and the January jobs report may make it harder for rate cuts to be justified. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stated that the strength of the economy allows the Fed to be cautious about rate cuts [a7ce553f].
The market sentiment has shifted, with traders reducing the odds of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting and lowering the outlook for easing. However, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain, with some economists predicting a delay in rate cuts until at least June [e647cfe4][63566c26][2278b3c3][013e0ce1][fac3522a][8daac047][5b7a0396].
In other news, the Biden administration has shortened the waiting period for White House officials to weigh in on economic indicator releases, including GDP, inflation, and jobs data. The waiting period has been reduced from one hour to 30 minutes, starting Monday. The change aims to reduce the delay after the official release time before commentary from White House officials. The new rule was proposed last year and received public comments expressing concerns about confusion in financial markets, political interference, and data manipulation. None of the 12 public comments supported the rule change. The Trump administration had also explored the option of no delay at all [6f48817c].
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has admitted that it released the monthly inflation last month around 30 minutes before schedule. The premature release of data or early access of data to some may put BLS’ impartiality of the agency and its integrity into question. BLS has alerted the Office of Management and Budget and DOL’s Office of the Inspector General of the incident. Last month, it was reported that a BLS economist had engaged with major Wall Street companies like JP Morgan Chase and BlackRock about inflation data. The admission is likely to prompt a “deep and broad” review of how economic information about the US economy is disseminated as it has implications for major assets trade and even Federal’s Reserve’s policy [3eef6ea5].
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) inadvertently published consumer price index (CPI) data 30 minutes early on May 16, 2024. The early release raised questions about the agency's dissemination of sensitive economic information. The BLS typically releases its monthly report on consumer prices at 8:30 am in Washington, but a subset of files was loaded to the website prior to the scheduled release. While there were no obvious signs that the early publication moved markets, the incident is likely to prompt a review of data dissemination protocols. The BLS has previously faced scrutiny over its data practices, including correspondence with major Wall Street firms and concerns about potential leaks or hacks. The agency is conducting a full investigation into the incident and has notified relevant authorities [9d171680].
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics accidentally released consumer inflation data 30 minutes ahead of schedule on Wednesday, May 16, 2024. The incident may lead to a thorough examination of how the agency distributes critical economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, closely watched by markets and central bankers, are scheduled to arrive once a month at 8:30 a.m. ET. The latest CPI report showed that inflation rose less than forecast and eased from the prior month. Certain categories within the inflation gauge, including shelter and services, remained sticky. Stocks rose and bond yields tumbled on the news. The BLS is conducting a full investigation into its procedures and controls to ensure the incident is not repeated [1302e2ac][9d171680].
The Bureau of Labor Statistics accidentally released critical consumer price index (CPI) data 30 minutes before the scheduled release time, prompting concerns about data security. The early release did not have a significant impact on trading activities, and the stock market futures responded positively. The BLS is conducting a full investigation to prevent similar incidents in the future. The change in how the BLS releases data may have contributed to the limited impact of the early release. The April CPI data showed a 0.3% increase in the all-items measure of goods and services, slightly below the expected 0.4% estimate. Stocks closed significantly higher on Wednesday despite the lower-than-expected CPI figures. The incident has raised questions about data security and procedures at the BLS, prompting the agency to improve its protocols and controls. The investigation is ongoing. [5e23ab32]