India's crude import bill saw a significant increase of 14.7%, reaching $60.6 billion from April to August 2024, compared to $52.8 billion during the same period in the previous fiscal year. This rise in expenditure coincided with a 3.2% increase in crude oil imports, totaling 101.6 million tonnes. Notably, August alone accounted for 19.9 million tonnes of imports, valued at $11.6 billion, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase [8f445f88].
Despite these increases, India's dependency on crude oil imports rose to 88.1%, up from 87.8%. Domestic crude production experienced a slight decline, totaling 12.1 million tonnes. In response to these trends, the Indian government has set ambitious goals to expand the explored sedimentary basin area from 10% to 16% by the end of 2024, with upcoming bids for oil and gas assets expected in early 2025 [8f445f88].
In the context of these developments, India's monthly oil imports from Russia decreased slightly in June, while imports from the US reached their highest level since February 2022. Indian refiners collectively imported 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in June, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month, although this represented a 1.2% annual increase during the first fiscal quarter that ended on June 30 [a6cbff24].
The shift in oil imports reflects India's strategic approach to diversifying its sources and reducing reliance on a single supplier. Imports from Iraq dropped to their lowest level since September 2020, while imports from Saudi Arabia increased by 9.7%. The United States has now become India's fourth-largest supplier of crude oil [a6cbff24].
As global oil prices fluctuate, with Brent crude averaging $80.91 per barrel in August, analysts predict lower crude prices due to an expected surplus by 2025, which may further influence India's import strategies [8f445f88].