Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025. His inaugural speech emphasized a 'revolution of common sense' and a departure from 'liberal extremism,' promising radical changes in immigration and trade policies. Trump indicated plans to establish an External Revenue Service to collect tariffs, aiming to reduce inflation and boost energy production by gutting climate controls. He reiterated an 'America First' foreign policy, prioritizing border security and preparing for a confrontational approach with global partners, including India [9803f5ec].
In a more aggressive stance, Trump has invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, proposing military actions to acquire territories like the Panama Canal and Greenland, framing international relations as a zero-sum game [c9a56708]. His administration's withdrawal from global treaties and institutions, including the World Health Organization, signals a shift towards a more unilateral approach to foreign policy [c9a56708].
As Trump embarks on his second term, India finds itself in a 'wait and watch' mode regarding potential tariff actions and trade policies. Ongoing discussions about duty cuts and market access are critical as both nations look to strengthen their economic ties [6a15ca4f].
During Trump's previous administration, U.S. exports to India saw a significant increase, rising from $53.1 billion in FY20 to $77.5 billion in FY24, marking a 46% growth [6a15ca4f]. This upward trend in trade is expected to continue as both countries explore opportunities for collaboration. Ajay Srivastava, an industry expert, suggested that India could lower its average tariffs from 17% to 10%, which may enhance trade relations further [6a15ca4f].
However, Trump's focus on domestic economic growth and recalibrating global partnerships may present challenges for India. Analysts have raised concerns that tariffs and protectionist trade policies could strain Indo-U.S. ties, particularly affecting the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for many Indian professionals [7734eaea]. Peter Bendor-Samuel from Everest Group warns that fewer H-1B and L1 visas could raise costs for Indian tech firms, potentially impacting their competitiveness [4f9e436d].
Despite these challenges, global tech analysts suggest that while there may be potential negative impacts of Trump's second presidency on India's tech sector, these could be offset by positive outcomes. Phil Fersht from HFS Research highlights that the influence of tech billionaires and tax cuts could stimulate growth in the Indian IT economy [4f9e436d].
In addition to trade, the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is expected to continue, emphasizing India's role in the Indo-Pacific region. The partnership is seen as vital in countering China's growing influence, with both nations recognizing India's emergence as a global power [6a15ca4f]. R. Ray Wang from Constellation Research notes a trend of Indian tech immigrants returning to India for better opportunities, which could reshape the tech landscape in the country [4f9e436d].
India's External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, has remarked that Trump's administration will have profound consequences for the global order, emphasizing the need for India to maintain its strategic autonomy while expanding partnerships [6a15ca4f]. Under Trump's leadership, the strategic relationship between the U.S. and India is anticipated to deepen, driven by shared concerns over China. The Quad alliance is expected to strengthen, providing India with allies within the U.S. administration, which could enhance trust in defense and security matters [6a15ca4f].
However, economic ties may face challenges, particularly regarding trade deficits and investment. Trump has expressed displeasure over India's $40 billion trade surplus, prompting calls for India to reframe its economic narrative to appeal to his administration [6a15ca4f]. As Trump transitions from campaigning to governance, the implications for U.S. foreign policy in South Asia will be closely monitored. The focus on bilateral trade and defense cooperation is likely to intensify, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions with China [6a15ca4f].
Amidst these developments, the rise of white Christian nationalism in the U.S. poses significant threats to minority communities, particularly Indian Americans. Nearly 29% of Americans sympathize with Christian nationalist ideas, which often downplay white supremacy and support discriminatory policies. In 2021, over 1,100 hate crimes against Asian Americans were reported by the FBI, highlighting the urgency of addressing these issues [b39d0e58].
High-profile incidents, such as the 2017 murder of Indian engineer Srinivas Kuchibhotla and a 2022 attack on Indian women in Texas, underscore the rising tide of anti-Asian sentiment. Additionally, anti-Hindu and anti-Sikh biases have increased, with documented hate crimes against these communities [b39d0e58]. A 2020 Carnegie Endowment survey found that nearly half of Indian Americans experienced discrimination, raising concerns about the impact of Trump's presidency on racial dynamics in the U.S. [b39d0e58].
Critics of Trump argue that his inflammatory rhetoric and policies have exacerbated divisions and alienated immigrant communities, while supporters contend that he promotes law and order. The future of his influence on racism remains uncertain as he positions for a potential 2024 run [b39d0e58]. Overall, the return of Trump to the White House signals a continuation of the pro-India stance that characterized his first term, with both nations poised to enhance their collaboration across various sectors, including defense, technology, and trade, amidst a rapidly changing global landscape [6a15ca4f]. However, Trump's rhetoric and policies raise concerns about the erosion of global norms and American greatness, urging a focus on domestic capabilities and strategic autonomy for India [c9a56708].