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The Potential Macroeconomic and Policy Impacts of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

2024-07-06 08:54:40.829000

The potential impact of President Joe Biden's reelection on the middle class and the job market has been a topic of discussion in recent articles. One article from The Ukrainian Business Journal highlights several key areas that may see adjustments if Biden is reelected. These areas include taxes, healthcare costs, student loan debt, and housing affordability. The article suggests that Biden may lower taxes for the middle class while increasing taxes on the wealthy. He also aims to reduce healthcare costs, decrease student loan debt, and make housing more affordable. However, the article acknowledges that these policies could contribute to inflationary pressures and emphasizes the need for careful management to ensure long-term economic stability [08ce8f33].

Another article from Yahoo Finance provides predictions for the job market under a second term for President Biden. It suggests that Biden may let the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire, potentially increasing the corporate tax rate. Higher corporate taxes could stimulate job growth but also affect job creation if businesses face higher costs. The article also mentions that Biden would likely take a hands-off approach toward the Federal Reserve and let them manage inflation without intervention. This potential seesaw between battling inflation and supporting employment could create uncertainty for businesses [08ce8f33].

A more recent article from Bloomberg discusses the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump regarding whose economy would be better for the middle class [5d63528b]. The article highlights the different economic policies and approaches of the two candidates. Biden emphasizes his plans to raise taxes on the wealthy and invest in infrastructure and clean energy to create jobs. Trump, on the other hand, touts his record of tax cuts, deregulation, and job growth before the pandemic. The article provides analysis and insights into the potential impact of each candidate's economic policies on the middle class.

In another perspective, Jayon Evans, a police officer in New City, New York, supports Donald Trump in the 2024 election and expects Trump to make key moves to benefit the economy. Evans criticizes the Biden administration for the ordering of COVID-19 vaccine mandates, the enactment of the Build Back Better Bill, and the American Rescue Plan Act. He believes that Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and his initiatives to boost the stock market were beneficial for the economy. If Trump wins in 2024, Evans wants to see him bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S., promote fracking and drilling to lower prices on natural gas and gasoline, and stop using taxpayer money to pay for migrants and migrant hotels. However, it is noted that during Trump's presidency, more jobs left the U.S. than during Obama's second term. The article also mentions that the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs under both Trump and Biden [d75882da].

An opinion piece by Joseph E Stiglitz in Gulf Times discusses the economic-policy records of Joe Biden and Donald Trump [15df8d57]. Stiglitz argues that Trump's promised surge of investment never materialized and his inadequate response to Covid-19 left the US with a high death toll and contributed to work shortages and inflation. On the other hand, Biden's economic record includes the passage of the American Rescue Plan and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which strengthened the country's recovery from the pandemic and provided funding for repairing neglected elements of the economy. Stiglitz also highlights Biden's signing of the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which launched a new era of industrial policy and addressed climate change. Economic modeling shows that Trump's proposals would cause higher inflation and greater inequality. Trump would raise tariffs, curtail immigration, increase the deficit, and attack universities and research and development expenditures. Stiglitz concludes that there is no debate on who would be better for the economy between Trump and Biden.

A recent article from Investing.com Australia discusses the potential macroeconomic and policy impacts of the 2024 U.S. presidential election [c00445cf]. According to JPMorgan economists, key policy areas such as immigration, trade, fiscal policy, and industrial policy could see major changes depending on whether President Biden secures a second term or former President Trump returns to office. President Biden has maintained high immigration numbers, contributing to economic benefits such as increased labor supply and consumer demand. In contrast, Trump has vowed to shut the southwest border and initiate large-scale deportations of unauthorized immigrants. Trade policy is another key area of divergence, with Biden keeping many of Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports while Trump has proposed even more aggressive measures. Fiscal policy under Biden would likely involve extending key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act for those making under $400,000, while reverting to higher rates for higher incomes. Biden also plans to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and implement other revenue-raising measures. Trump's fiscal plans remain less specific but suggest extending all TCJA provisions and possibly introducing a comprehensive tax cut. Industrial policy, particularly related to the green transition, could face risks under a Trump administration. Biden's administration has been proactive in antitrust policy, targeting major tech companies. A second Trump administration might adopt a more lenient approach to antitrust enforcement. Despite aggressive enforcement under Biden, the labor share of income remains near all-time lows.

These articles provide a comprehensive view of the potential impact of President Biden's reelection on the middle class and the job market. They discuss the potential changes and challenges that may arise from Biden's policies, such as taxes, healthcare costs, inflation, and job creation. It is important to consider both perspectives when assessing the potential outcomes of President Biden's policies [08ce8f33] [5d63528b] [d75882da] [15df8d57] [c00445cf].

Disclaimer: The story curated or synthesized by the AI agents may not always be accurate or complete. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, financial, or professional advice. Please use your own discretion.