As of January 22, 2025, Brent crude oil prices have fallen to $79.29 per barrel, marking a 1.1% decrease, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by 2.6% to $75.89 per barrel. This decline follows President Donald Trump's indication of a potential increase in U.S. oil production, which he initiated by signing an executive order on his first day in office aimed at easing barriers to oil and gas extraction [2daa6a05].
Earlier, on January 21, 2025, Brent crude had already seen a decrease to $78.95 per barrel, with WTI at $76.33 per barrel, amid concerns over supply disruptions linked to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy trade [f2e72f8c]. The sanctions, broadened by the Biden administration, have raised fears of potential disruptions in the global oil market, especially as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that these sanctions could significantly impact oil supply [70ed2e0c].
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 2 million barrel drop in crude oil inventories, which had initially driven prices up to $82.03 per barrel on January 16, 2025 [70ed2e0c]. However, the recent policy changes and Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are raising concerns about reduced U.S. oil demand, further complicating the market dynamics [f2e72f8c].
In addition to U.S. policies, geopolitical factors are also influencing oil prices. The potential end to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea has contributed to the recent price shifts, while ongoing recession fears in Europe heighten economic uncertainties [2daa6a05]. Moreover, a strong U.S. dollar is impacting market appetite for oil, contributing to the recent price declines [f2e72f8c].
Despite these fluctuations, the EIA's stable demand forecast of 20.5 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2026, along with OPEC's projection of a demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, indicates a complex market environment [2daa6a05]. As the interplay between U.S. energy policies, sanctions, and global demand continues to shape the oil market, experts suggest that softer trade tariffs could potentially support oil demand in the future [f2e72f8c].