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Singapore's Economic Growth Forecast Upgraded Amid Global Challenges

2024-11-22 08:45:06.212000

As of November 22, 2024, Singapore has upgraded its economic growth forecast for 2024 to around 3.5%, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 2% to 3% [12b2ef21]. This revision comes on the heels of a robust 5.4% GDP growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by the manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance sectors [12b2ef21]. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) reported that GDP growth averaged 3.8% across the first three quarters of the year, indicating a strong performance despite global uncertainties [12b2ef21].

Beh Swan Gin, a senior official at MTI, suggested that there is potential for growth to exceed the newly set 3.5% target, reflecting optimism in the local economy [12b2ef21]. However, the growth forecast for 2025 is expected to be more conservative, ranging between 1% and 3% due to anticipated global uncertainties [12b2ef21].

The manufacturing sector has been a key driver of this growth, showing an impressive year-on-year increase of 11% in Q3, reversing a previous contraction [12b2ef21]. Additionally, wholesale trade expanded by 4.9% year-on-year, and the finance and insurance sector grew by 5.4% year-on-year, further contributing to the economic performance [12b2ef21]. However, the tourism and consumer-facing sectors have shown signs of weakness, indicating mixed performance across different areas of the economy [12b2ef21].

On the global front, the performance of the US and Eurozone economies has been better than anticipated, which may provide a favorable backdrop for Singapore's economic activities [12b2ef21]. However, risks from geopolitical conflicts, policy uncertainty, and potential changes in US trade policy, particularly with Donald Trump's return to the White House, pose challenges for the future [12b2ef21]. In contrast, China's GDP growth has slowed, adding to the complexities of the economic landscape [12b2ef21].

In summary, while Singapore's economic indicators reflect a positive trajectory with upgraded growth forecasts, challenges from external factors and sector-specific weaknesses remain critical to watch in the coming months.

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