German pharmaceutical packaging company Gerresheimer expects around 4% of its annual revenue growth to come from deals to supply makers of weight-loss and diabetes drugs with vials, cartridges, syringes, and autoinjectors. Gerresheimer CEO Dietmar Siemssen predicts that sales related to GLP-1 medicines will surpass €100 million this year and reach at least €350 million ($379 million) within the next three years. The company is already producing products for GLP-1 drugs in Germany and is expanding its plant in Mexico for production. Gerresheimer also manufactures pens for GLP-1 drugs in the Czech Republic, South America, and the U.S., with plans to produce them in China in the future. The weight-loss drug market is projected to reach at least $100 billion by the end of the decade [4b85d8a1] [43582d2d].
Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy, which has received FDA approval for cardiovascular risk reduction, is expected to bring in sales of about $8.6 billion this year and $12.86 billion in 2025. Eli Lilly's Zepbound is also anticipated to generate sales of around $4 billion this year and $10.8 billion next year. Gerresheimer's revenue growth is aligned with the anticipated growth of the weight-loss drug market, as the company supplies packaging materials for these drugs [4b85d8a1].
According to analysts at the SA Investing Summit, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are expected to dominate the weight loss therapy market. These two companies, which already have successful weight loss drugs, are likely to control the market due to their size, early market entry, and extensive research and development. The analysts project the GLP-1 drugs market to reach $45 billion this year and $65 billion in 2025. Smaller companies may struggle to compete and may need to be acquired to succeed. Other companies with weight loss drugs in development include Viking Therapeutics, Structure Therapeutics, Altimmune, Zealand Pharma, Pfizer, Amgen, and Roche. The analysts believe that a therapy with better weight loss reduction won't necessarily replace another with significant market share, as the market will likely segment based on different drug characteristics [4d03a64a].
Gerresheimer recorded €1.99 billion ($2.15 billion) in sales last year and expects revenue growth of 5%-10% this year and 10%-15% in 2025 [4b85d8a1].
A recent study used large language models (LLMs) to analyze over 391,000 unique discussions on Reddit related to glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs). The study found high interest in GLP-1 RAs, with discussions focusing on weight loss experiences, side effects, access issues, and positive psychological benefits. GLP-1 RAs are drugs that imitate the function of natural GLP-1, a hormone in the intestine that controls glucose metabolism and feelings of fullness. The study revealed that 97.1% of the discussions focused on GLP-1 RA medications prescribed for weight loss, with semaglutide being the most discussed drug. The volume of discussions surged significantly after 2022, following the FDA approval of "Wegovy." The study employed large language models and sentiment analysis to classify the nature of discussions, with 31.8% being negative, 50.1% neutral, and 17.4% positive. The study highlights the need to monitor side effects, address access barriers, and acknowledge the physical and psychological benefits of GLP-1 RAs [bb82a072].
Pharma coverage companies are expected to report decent Q4 numbers. Revenue in the pharma coverage universe is expected to grow by ~12% YoY, driven by pick-up in U.S. sales, boosted by gRevlimid and gSpiriva and favorable currency movements. Domestic growth is expected to be supported by the Acute segment and price hike in Chronic therapies. Margins are expected to improve YoY due to a better product mix, price hike benefits in branded markets, normalizing cost inflation, and diminishing U.S. pricing pressure. Growth in domestic formulations is expected to moderate to ~10% YoY. U.S. is expected to grow by ~10% YoY in constant currency terms mainly due to gRevlimid and gSpiriva and new launches, but it is expected to remain almost flat QoQ. Softer raw material prices are supporting U.S. growth [4a86df2e].
However, concerns have emerged regarding the long-term health implications of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. George Yancopoulos, Regeneron's chief scientific officer, warns that these drugs may lead to faster muscle loss compared to traditional weight loss methods, potentially causing health issues. A 2024 study published in JAMA indicates that 40% of patients discontinue treatment within a year, risking weight rebound with less muscle and more body fat. In response to these concerns, Regeneron is developing trevogrumab, a drug aimed at blocking myostatin to preserve muscle mass alongside GLP-1 treatments, targeting a $130 billion market dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Currently, there are 11 myostatin drugs in development, with seven focused on obesity [9d21c84b].
In a personal account, Kathryn Dean, a 52-year-old American, lost 18kg using semaglutide and tirzepatide after being diagnosed as prediabetic at age 46. Dean's weight increased to 79.8kg (176 pounds) by age 46, but after starting semaglutide in May 2023, she lost 1.3kg in the first month and eventually switched to tirzepatide, losing an additional 11.3kg. She now weighs 61.9kg and reports feeling energetic and healthy. In Hong Kong, Saxenda is currently the only GLP-1 drug registered for weight loss, but tirzepatide is expected to be available in the region by 2025. A study indicated that patients on tirzepatide are more likely to achieve significant weight loss compared to those on semaglutide. Dean advises maintaining healthy meals and regular exercise to complement the medication [cbe6f357].
In Australia, weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are not only transforming individual health but also having a significant impact on the economy. A recent report from Citigroup highlights that approximately 7 million Americans are currently using these medications, with projections suggesting that this number could rise to 24 million by 2035. The economic implications are profound, with potential productivity increases as individuals lose weight and improve their health. For instance, Mrs. Senn, who lost 20 kg in five months on Wegovy, has seen her business revenue increase as a direct result of her weight loss. Analysts predict that the Australian economy could experience significant changes post-2031 due to the widespread adoption of these drugs, including shifts in food preferences towards healthier options and increased demand for health-related products and services [1df8873a].