Mexico's Economic Growth Surpasses Expectations, Boosting Outlook for 2024

Mexico's economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter of 2023, driven by surging exports to the US and strong consumer spending. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.1% from the previous quarter, surpassing the initial reading of 0.9%. Year-on-year, GDP grew 3.3%. The country has benefited from the strength of the US market and nearshoring, with consumer demand and a robust labor market supporting growth. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is rushing to complete infrastructure projects before his term ends next year. However, high borrowing costs and reduced government spending are expected to impact future growth. Moody's has raised its growth forecasts for Mexico's economy, citing positive surprises in productive sectors and nearshoring trends. The agency now expects Mexico's GDP to grow 3.5% this year and 2.3% in 2024. Mexico's government also forecasts GDP growth of at least 3.5% this year and next. In line with this positive outlook, a Reuters poll predicts that Mexican stocks will continue to gain in 2024 due to faster economic growth, with a projected 11% increase by the end of the year. The spillover of manufacturing plants relocating to Mexico for proximity to the United States is expected to support Mexico's equities. However, there may be some volatility leading up to the presidential election in June. The head of equity strategy at Masari Casa de Bolsa, Adrian Ramirez, believes that stocks may experience volatility due to political developments in Mexico and the United States, as well as policy adjustments in both countries. The campaign for the presidential vote on June 2 is starting to take shape, with ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum pledging to continue the legacy of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. In addition to Mexico, the Brazilian stock market is also expected to see growth in 2024, with a projected 10.6% increase by the end of next year. However, foreign investors may have less incentive to buy Brazilian stocks due to high interest rates abroad. The article also mentions the recovery of the Brazilian stock market in November after a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and stable trends in debt markets. [631c097a] [3496e81e] [388f2ff9] [f3c8c558]