As Election Day approaches on November 5, 2024, Philadelphia is set to experience one of the warmest days on record, with a forecasted high of 76 degrees Fahrenheit. This temperature is notably above the average high of 75.1 degrees recorded since September, which itself is 3 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year [21329ca5].
Historically, the warmest conditions in Philadelphia from October 21 to November 3 have averaged 71.6 degrees, marking a significant 9 degrees above the norm. The record high for Election Day, November 5, was previously set at 80 degrees in 1961, while the warmest Election Day on record occurred on November 3, 1936, with a temperature of 76 degrees [21329ca5].
The correlation between weather and voter turnout has been documented, with studies indicating that a 1.8-degree increase in temperature can lead to a 0.14% rise in voter turnout. This suggests that the unseasonably warm weather could potentially influence participation in the upcoming presidential election [21329ca5].
The variability of Election Day dates, which can range from November 2 to November 8, adds an interesting layer to the historical context of weather patterns affecting voter behavior. The coolest recorded Election Day was November 6, 2012, when temperatures dropped to 46 degrees [21329ca5]. As voters prepare to head to the polls, the warm weather may serve as an inviting factor, encouraging higher turnout in this pivotal election year.