The trucking industry in the United States is currently navigating a complex landscape marked by both challenges and growth opportunities. As of 2023, there are over 10.77 million registered trucks in the U.S., with the industry valued at approximately $3.7 trillion globally. The trucking sector is responsible for moving $791 billion worth of goods annually, accounting for 80.7% of total freight costs in the U.S. [22daef02]. Despite these impressive figures, the industry is grappling with significant challenges, including a projected shortage of 160,000 drivers by 2030 and rising concerns over the economy and fuel prices [22daef02].
In recent years, the trucking sector has seen substantial job growth, adding 405,000 jobs in 2022 alone. As of 2023, there are approximately 3.54 million truck drivers in the U.S., with a median salary of $45,570 [22daef02]. However, the industry faces headwinds as consumer spending slows and inflation continues to impact operational costs. The Federal diesel tax is currently set at $0.24 per gallon, which adds to the financial pressures on trucking companies [22daef02].
Looking ahead, the ACT Research forecasts a positive trend for the North American trucking industry, with U.S. GDP growth projected at 2.6% in Q4 2024. The ACT Freight Composite Index is expected to rise by 3.2%, indicating a recovery in freight activity. However, the industry must contend with a slowdown in freight growth and economic uncertainties projected for 2025, where GDP growth is expected to drop to 2.0% year-over-year [f4779dfc].
The trucking industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, contributing approximately 57% of the GDP and serving as the backbone for 80% of U.S. communities that rely on trucks for goods [22daef02]. The General Freight Trucking industry alone generated $91.4 billion in revenue in 2022. Despite the challenges, the sector is expected to see a 28% growth in freight moved from 2021 to 2032, with a 9.2% growth forecasted by 2026 [22daef02].
In terms of regulatory changes, the CARB Clean Truck Regulation is pushing for fleet upgrades towards zero-emission vehicles, which may create additional challenges for trucking companies striving for rapid growth [f4779dfc]. The industry remains resilient, with high-quality operators like Old Dominion Freight Line and XPO Logistics well-positioned for recovery. Rail operators are also poised for earnings improvement, benefiting from reshoring trends [80f4879d].
Overall, while the trucking industry faces significant challenges, including a driver shortage and rising costs, it is also on the brink of recovery and growth, driven by increasing demand for freight transportation and ongoing investments in infrastructure and technology [22daef02].