How Will Canada Navigate the 2024 U.S. Election Outcomes?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, its potential impact on Alberta's economy and broader Canadian interests is becoming a focal point for analysts and businesses alike. On November 5, millions of Americans are set to vote in a closely contested election between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both of whom present distinct economic policies that could significantly affect trade relations with Canada. Current polling indicates that the candidates are in a dead heat, raising the stakes for Canadian businesses and policymakers. [4ce41013]

Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 60% tariff on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other countries, including Canada, could lead to increased costs for Canadian and Alberta companies. According to Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, Trump's potential tariffs could cost Canada as much as $30 billion annually, which is particularly concerning given that over 77% of Canadian exports go to the U.S. Jean David Tremblay-Frenette, chief economist with AIMCO, warns that if Trump is elected, Alberta could face higher prices and inflation as a direct consequence of these tariffs. [69272213][735ac61f][4ce41013]

In contrast, Kamala Harris's policies are expected to have minimal immediate impact on Alberta's economy, as her focus appears to be more on domestic issues rather than foreign trade. While her green agenda may not significantly affect Alberta's energy sector in the short to medium term, the long-term implications of her environmental policies could still be a concern for the province's oil and gas industry. If Harris wins, experts suggest that relations between Canada and the U.S. may improve, but challenges will still remain. [69272213][d6a2e819][4ce41013]

The USMCA trade agreement, which governs trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, is set for renegotiation in 2026. This upcoming negotiation process could present challenges regardless of the election outcome, as both candidates have differing views on trade that could influence future agreements. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has also emphasized the need for Canada to aim for 2% GDP defense spending by 2032, indicating a proactive approach to potential shifts in U.S. policy. [69272213][83b5cbe1][4ce41013]

As the election draws near, the stakes are high for Alberta and Canada as a whole, with businesses closely monitoring the candidates' positions on tariffs and trade. The interconnectedness of the U.S. and Canadian economies means that the election results could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for Alberta's energy sector and overall economic stability. Experts warn that Canada must be prepared to adapt to either outcome, reflecting the mixed emotions expressed by Americans about the election. [69272213][e8a9d126][4ce41013]