U.S. Treasury yields were mixed today, with the 10-year note yields remaining relatively stable near the 4.4% mark, while 2-year note yields were slightly above 4.75%. The ongoing scrutiny of economic data updates and the impending July 4th holiday could dampen market movements. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on adjustments, emphasizing the importance of clearer inflation indicators before considering any rate cuts. This could help keep yields near the top of their range in the short term. Expectations for a rate cut by September remained unchanged, which could contribute to keeping Treasury yields capped in the near term. Speculation about former President Donald Trump's potential return triggered increased bets on shorter-maturity Treasury notes, leading to significant rises in open interest and potentially fueling an increase in yields for longer maturities. As a result, more volatility could be recorded for the latter. Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting are expected to provide insights into policymakers' thinking on inflation and monetary policy. Import and export figures, insights into the services sector, and ADP's private payrolls report are also due. The June jobs report on Friday will provide further indications of the economy's direction and its impact on interest rates. Markets will close early on Wednesday and remain closed on Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday. [40fc350a] [98b3e040]
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell after signs of weakness in manufacturing and the jobs market. The ISM Non-Manufacturing index was 48.8 in June, below consensus and May's level. Initial claims for unemployment rose to 238,000 in the week ended June 29. Data from ADP showed private payrolls rose by 150,000 jobs in June. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 7.7 basis points to 4.359%. The yield on the 30-year bond fell 8 basis points to 4.529%. The two-year Treasury yield fell 3.1 basis points to 4.708%. The yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes was at a negative 35.3 basis points. The bond market closed early ahead of the July Fourth holiday and will reopen on July 5. The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June policy meeting, where participants said the US economy appeared to be gradually cooling. [b6694a08]
Yields are plummeting as the US economy shows signs of weakness. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 48.8 in June, missing the 52.5 consensus, and down from May's 53.8. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 238,000 for the week ended June 29. Private payrolls increased by just 150,000 jobs in June. The 10-year yield fell to 4.347%, the 30-year bond yield dropped to 4.524%, and the two-year yield decreased to 4.685%. Futures markets are pricing in roughly 45 basis points of rate cuts by year's end. Recent economic data suggests tightening belts and slowing growth not just in the US but potentially worldwide. The Fed remains firm on keeping rates steady, citing the labor market's resilience. [6ab98adf]
US Treasury yields fell as disappointing economic data stoked concerns about the economy's strength. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell by 7.7 basis points to 4.359%, while 30-year yields dropped 8 basis points to 4.529%. The typically stable 2-year Treasury yields slid by 3.1 basis points to 4.708%. This drop follows downbeat economic indicators: the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June hit 48.8, missing the 52.5 consensus and down from May's 53.8. Initial unemployment claims rose to 238,000, exceeding the forecasted 235,000, and the ADP private payrolls report showed just 150,000 jobs added in June, short of the 160,000 predicted. The bond market's reaction signals rising caution among investors, with futures markets predicting about 45 basis points in rate cuts by year's end. The yield curve inversion, with the gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries at negative 35.3 basis points, underscores market uncertainty and a potential economic downturn. The bond market's sensitivity to economic data highlights the global ripple effects of US economic health on international economies. June's Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes revealed concerns over the US economy's gradual cooling. Shifts in monetary policies could significantly impact global trade, investment, and economic strategies. [183ce054]