[Tree] US Treasury yield curve inversion, recession, US economy, consumer savings, Federal Reserve, stock market crashes, economic downturns, bear steepening, US debt, inflation, interest rates, labor market

Version 0.36 (2024-07-07 15:56:27.584000)

updates: Includes analysis of the labor market and its impact on the lack of recession despite the inverted yield curve

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Version 0.35 (2024-07-02 19:58:45.641000)

updates: Includes analysis of the labor market and its impact on the lack of recession despite the inverted yield curve

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Version 0.34 (2024-06-28 04:54:14.134000)

updates: The US yield curve inversion has reached a new record of almost two years. Despite the prolonged inversion, a recession has not materialized, and the US economy continues to perform well. Economists attribute this to high consumer savings and the Federal Reserve's management of last year's banking turmoil. The current inversion of the yield curve in the US is seen more as a sign that the old growth 'boom times' will not return so quickly. [98b348f6]

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Version 0.33 (2024-06-24 14:55:29.132000)

updates: Updates on the duration of the yield curve inversion and the lack of recession

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Version 0.32 (2024-06-23 17:54:23.045000)

updates: Inclusion of analysis suggesting a 52% chance of a recession in the US economy within the next year based on the Federal Reserve model utilizing the US Treasury yield curve

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Version 0.31 (2024-06-06 22:55:28.926000)

updates: The US Treasury yield curve inversion has reached a new record length, but a recession has not materialized. The yield curve has been inverted for 624 days, surpassing the previous record of 419 days set in 1980. The lack of recession is attributed to high consumer savings and the Federal Reserve's actions to stabilize the banking sector. Despite the prolonged inversion, the US economy continues to perform well. Some market watchers have abandoned the yield curve indicator as a predictor of recession, while others remain proponents of it. The yield curve is now shifting, with long-term yields rising and short-term yields remaining unchanged. The possibility of a bear steepening and a return to a normal yield curve is being considered. Recent months have seen a moderation in recession calls as the US economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low. The inverted yield curve, which traditionally signals a recession, has been in place for the longest stretch on record, but the recession has not materialized. The yield curve doesn't normalize until something significant changes, such as signs of economic slowing, a geopolitical shock, a housing market crash, or a stock market bubble bursting. Economic warning signs are flashing, but the trillions of dollars of pandemic-fighting monetary and fiscal stimulus have delayed the effects of the yield curve. The jobless rate could rise if GDP growth falls below potential.

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Version 0.3 (2024-06-04 16:55:15.255000)

updates: The article provides additional insights on the prolonged inversion of the yield curve, the lack of recession despite the inversion, the potential normalization of the curve through a bear steepening, and the ongoing debate about the reliability of the yield curve as a recession indicator.

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Version 0.29 (2024-06-03 11:54:29.581000)

updates: The reliability of the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator is being questioned amidst a prolonged inversion

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Version 0.28 (2024-06-01 05:56:08.659000)

updates: Updated information on the US yield curve inversion and potential economic implications

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Version 0.27 (2024-04-29 06:53:04.980000)

updates: The US yield curve may normalize through bear steepening

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Version 0.26 (2024-04-29 05:51:14.470000)

updates: The US yield curve may normalize through bear steepening

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Version 0.25 (2024-04-23 16:19:05.019000)

updates: The yield curve inversion continues for 18 months, indicating a looming recession

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Version 0.24 (2024-04-23 13:19:21.180000)

updates: The yield curve inversion continues for 18 months, indicating a looming recession

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Version 0.23 (2024-04-22 01:20:28.116000)

updates: Includes information about the historic length of the yield curve inversion and its potential implications for a stock market crash

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Version 0.22 (2024-04-02 21:20:25.818000)

updates: Added information from The Globe and Mail article about the ongoing debate regarding the yield curve indicator and the odds of a recession in 2024

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Version 0.21 (2024-03-22 08:17:49.322000)

updates: Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rates and inflation

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Version 0.2 (2024-03-21 16:17:24.853000)

updates: The US Treasury yield curve inversion has become the longest on record, but a recession has not materialized

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Version 0.19 (2024-03-19 22:22:42.998000)

updates: Economist David Rosenberg remains skeptical of a US recession

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Version 0.18 (2024-03-17 11:21:05.074000)

updates: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Recession Probability Indicator suggests a 58.31% chance of a recession by February 2025. Other metrics also point to a significant downturn for the stock market. Historically, recessions have been short-lived events.

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Version 0.17 (2024-03-15 14:18:29.094000)

updates: Updates on unemployment, Sahm rule, and US Federal Reserve's interest rates

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Version 0.16 (2024-03-13 15:17:55.117000)

updates: New information on the combination of ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and yield curve as recession indicators

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Version 0.15 (2024-02-29 00:17:13.359000)

updates: The article highlights that while the bond yield curve has been inverted for 16 months, a catalyst for a recession is missing. It mentions that past recessions were triggered by events like Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and the global pandemic. The likelihood of a soft landing or a hard landing downturn is debated by top commentators.

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Version 0.14 (2024-02-24 10:18:16.543000)

updates: Economists expected a recession in the US in 2023, but the economy remained strong. The Federal Reserve is projected to achieve a soft landing, taming inflation without triggering a recession. The US economy is currently projected to expand at an annualized 2.9% in Q1 2024. Recession fears have melted away.

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Version 0.13 (2024-02-24 10:17:09.758000)

updates: The bond market signals a possible recession by the end of next month

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Version 0.12 (2024-02-13 01:24:54.544000)

updates: The article highlights the persistence of the yield curve inversion despite strong economic growth, low unemployment, and falling inflation rates in the US. It suggests that the Federal Reserve Board may have been too aggressive in raising interest rates and is now being too cautious in bringing them down. Recent commentary from Fed board members indicates a shift in the goal posts for rate cuts, with a focus on a widespread fall in inflation across the economy. Bond investors appear more cautious than sharemarket investors, seeking extra compensation for the perceived increased risk. The risk of leaving monetary policies too tight for too long could lead to economic slowdowns and recessions. The US economy's trajectory will depend on the actions of the Fed over the next few months. [00f1a217]

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Version 0.11 (2024-02-11 13:54:54.350000)

updates: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's leading indicator suggests a 61.47% probability of a recession in the US by or before January 2025.

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Version 0.1 (2024-02-11 10:51:27.055000)

updates: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability tool suggests a 61.47% likelihood of a recession by January 2025.

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Version 0.09 (2024-02-06 12:11:29.022000)

updates: Discussion of recent economic data and the Fed's hint of interest rate cuts

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Version 0.08 (2024-01-26 12:54:31.856000)

updates: Inclusion of economist Campbell Harvey's prediction of a US economic slowdown in 2025

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Version 0.07 (2024-01-24 09:59:39.296000)

updates: Uncertainty in US economy in 2025, concerns of slowdown/recession

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Version 0.06 (2024-01-21 09:04:45.422000)

updates: Inverted yield curve inventor predicts a slowdown in the US economy in 2024

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Version 0.05 (2023-11-09 17:24:10.397000)

updates: Restructured and enhanced the narrative for improved clarity and impact

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Version 0.04 (2023-11-07 11:29:15.043000)

updates: Restructured and enhanced the narrative for clarity and impact

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Version 0.03 (2023-10-22 13:49:24.361000)

updates: Rephrased and consolidated information, added historical perspective

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Version 0.02 (2023-10-17 14:39:10.003000)

updates: Incorporated information from Knowledge at Wharton article

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Version 0.01 (2023-10-13 20:28:55.045000)

updates: The story provides a more comprehensive analysis of the changing dynamics of yield curves and their implications for recession signals, incorporating insights from Goldman Sachs and recent developments in the US Treasury bond market.

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Version 0.0 (2023-10-09 16:14:32.324000)

updates:

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