[Tree] US Economy, Recession, Economic Indicators, Inflation, Consumer Debt, Middle Class, Yield Curve, Gold, S&P 500, Portfolio, Government Jobs, Private Employment, Stock market's economic modern family
Version 0.65 (2024-06-26 20:53:32.736000)
updates: Integrates Daniel Lacalle's perspective on the US economy
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Version 0.64 (2024-06-25 13:56:21.112000)
updates: Inclusion of an article presenting arguments against an imminent US recession
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Version 0.63 (2024-06-24 21:53:34.546000)
updates: Expert opinion on slowdown, not recession
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Version 0.62 (2024-06-22 03:53:26.891000)
updates: New information on the Economic Modern Family's view of a Stagflation in the US
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Version 0.62 (2024-06-22 03:53:26.891000)
updates: New information on the Economic Modern Family's view of a Stagflation in the US
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Version 0.61 (2024-06-21 04:53:55.346000)
updates: Added information from S&P Global about the risk of a recession in the US remaining above the historical norm [f7319323]
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Version 0.6 (2024-06-20 04:54:35.248000)
updates: Added information about government employment growth indicating a recession
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Version 0.59 (2024-06-14 01:53:03.762000)
updates: Steve Eisman's view on the US economy
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Version 0.59 (2024-06-14 01:53:03.762000)
updates: Steve Eisman's view on the US economy
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Version 0.58 (2024-06-08 12:53:20.766000)
updates: Incorporated information from Real Investment Advice about recent economic reports suggesting a potential recession
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Version 0.57 (2024-06-05 18:53:24.198000)
updates: Societe Generale warns of signs pointing to a recession
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Version 0.56 (2024-05-31 16:52:53.294000)
updates: The US economy has hit a 'stall speed' and could weaken even further, according to David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research.
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Version 0.55 (2024-05-28 19:52:27.883000)
updates: Inclusion of Gary Kaltbaum's view on the US economy
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Version 0.54 (2024-05-27 14:52:27.113000)
updates: Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya believes US is already in a recession due to sustained government spending
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Version 0.53 (2024-05-25 09:52:10.006000)
updates: Experts say US economy not in recession, despite negative perception
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Version 0.52 (2024-05-24 11:53:23.742000)
updates: Economic indicators suggest a weakening U.S. economy, but not an imminent recession. The Philly Fed Index and US industrial production showed declines, while the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell. Credit spreads and financial conditions remain stable. High inflation and consumer debt persist, straining the middle class. The yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, indicating a potential recession. The middle class is burdened by inflation and debt. Target reported a decline in sales, indicating consumer fatigue from high prices. The S&P 500 hit an all-time high, but the Russell 2000 is down 15% from its peak. Gold has been less volatile than the S&P 500. Buying and holding a 60/40 portfolio is not recommended.
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Version 0.51 (2024-05-23 19:55:57.460000)
updates: Provides additional information on the weakening economy and the impact of inflation on the middle class
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Version 0.5 (2024-05-20 07:53:14.253000)
updates: New information about inflation, borrowing costs, and corporate profits
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Version 0.49 (2024-05-17 15:53:13.454000)
updates: Updates on inflation, borrowing costs, and corporate profits
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Version 0.49 (2024-05-17 15:53:13.454000)
updates: Updates on inflation, borrowing costs, and corporate profits
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Version 0.48 (2024-05-15 17:52:15.565000)
updates: Economists weigh in on inflation, retail sales, and the possibility of a soft landing
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Version 0.48 (2024-05-15 17:52:15.565000)
updates: Economists weigh in on inflation, retail sales, and the possibility of a soft landing
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Version 0.47 (2024-05-15 16:57:16.894000)
updates: Economists' reactions to inflation and retail sales
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Version 0.46 (2024-05-14 01:52:02.013000)
updates: Highlights concerns about high debt loads and warns of a hard landing in 2025
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Version 0.45 (2024-05-12 20:53:14.599000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver only one interest-rate cut in 2024
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Version 0.44 (2024-05-10 04:52:11.737000)
updates: Updated information on GDP growth, consumer spending, inflation, and retail sales
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Version 0.43 (2024-05-09 17:53:05.144000)
updates: New information on consumer spending and inflation
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Version 0.42 (2024-05-09 16:51:44.506000)
updates: Includes analysis of signs suggesting slowing growth and potential negative impact of government spending
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Version 0.41 (2024-05-09 09:53:09.494000)
updates: US economic growth slows in Q1 2024, NRF report
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Version 0.4 (2024-05-09 03:54:47.636000)
updates: Includes information about the slower growth in the Philippine economy in Q1 2024
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Version 0.39 (2024-05-08 11:51:35.555000)
updates: Inclusion of information about the US economy's resilience and consumer spending
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Version 0.38 (2024-05-08 07:51:35.398000)
updates: Updated information on consumer spending and retail sales in Q1 2024
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Version 0.37 (2024-05-08 05:51:36.712000)
updates: Inclusion of information from the National Retail Federation (NRF) about the US economy's growth and consumer spending in Q1
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Version 0.36 (2024-05-07 18:52:02.692000)
updates: Consumer spending remains strong despite slowing economic growth
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Version 0.35 (2024-05-07 14:52:41.948000)
updates: Consumer spending growth in Q1 grew 2.5% YoY. Economic growth slowed in Q1, but consumers are still spending more than last year. Prices for services are increasing while prices for goods level off. GDP grew only 1.6% in Q1, the lowest level since Q2 2023. Year-over-year inflation rose to 3.4% in Q1, driven by prices for services. Consumer spending growth fell from 3.3% in Q4 but still grew 2.5% YoY in Q1. Total retail sales in March rose 4% YoY. The labor market has solid job growth and rising wages. Payroll gain reached 276,000 in March, the fastest pace in a year. Private industry wage growth averaged 4.3% in Q1. Job openings fell in March, signaling a loosening labor market. Payrolls grew by 175,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. The Fed left interest rates unchanged due to high inflation. The decision on easing interest rates is likely to be delayed.
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Version 0.34 (2024-05-07 14:52:16.002000)
updates: New information about inflation, consumer spending, and job openings
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Version 0.33 (2024-05-07 14:51:57.347000)
updates: The US economy experienced a sharp downshift in growth in Q1 2024. The Massachusetts economy also experienced sluggish growth in Q1 2024.
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Version 0.32 (2024-05-07 13:52:26.732000)
updates: Includes information about the NRF report on US economic growth in Q1 2024
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Version 0.31 (2024-05-07 13:51:32.155000)
updates: US economy grew at a slower rate of 1.6% in Q1 2024
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Version 0.3 (2024-05-06 21:52:04.936000)
updates: The Massachusetts economy experienced sluggish growth in Q1 2024
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Version 0.29 (2024-04-25 19:57:10.003000)
updates: Integrates the perspective of BMO's Yung-Yu Ma, who remains optimistic about the US economy despite slow Q1 GDP growth
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Version 0.28 (2024-04-25 19:56:43.773000)
updates: Consumer spending fell short of expectations
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Version 0.26 (2024-04-25 19:51:56.661000)
updates: US economic growth slows to 1.6% in Q1 2024 amid surge in imports
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Version 0.25 (2024-04-25 18:54:09.550000)
updates: US economic slowdown continues amid disappointing GDP growth
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Version 0.24 (2024-04-25 16:54:53.456000)
updates: Integration of new information about resilient household demand and business investment despite slower GDP growth
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Version 0.23 (2024-04-25 16:52:47.239000)
updates: Includes information on net exports drag in Q1 2024
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Version 0.22 (2024-04-25 16:52:02.632000)
updates: US economy grew at a slower pace in Q1 2024; Consumer spending remains solid; Stock market reacts negatively; Concerns about inflation and monetary policy; Potential dilemma for the Federal Reserve; Downshift in government spending; Focus on unexpected inflation number; Federal Reserve has not eased rates; Slowing inflation remains a concern; Injection of uncertainty into bond and stock markets; US economy remains healthy despite slowdown; Rate cuts could come sooner than expected
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Version 0.21 (2024-04-25 15:59:42.435000)
updates: US economy experienced a slowdown in Q1 2024, high inflation concerns
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Version 0.19 (2024-04-25 15:54:38.823000)
updates: The Q1 US gross domestic product report showed the economy rose at an annual rate of 1.6%, the lowest pace in two years. The core PCE price index rose to 3.7% from 2% in Q4 2023, indicating heating inflation. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, stated that the report represents stalling economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 600 points during the session, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped alongside other US bond yields. Zaccarelli emphasized that slowing inflation is the top concern for the Fed and that uncertainty in bond and stock markets is driven by the rate cut or increase debate. Investors can monitor markets through various stock and bond ETFs.
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Version 0.18 (2024-04-25 15:53:46.968000)
updates: US economy faces slower growth in Q1 2024 amid surprising inflation
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Version 0.17 (2024-04-15 22:18:17.706000)
updates: New information about consumer spending exceeding expectations
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Version 0.16 (2024-04-15 20:18:19.317000)
updates: Consumer spending exceeds expectations, potential reduction in Fed rate cuts
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Version 0.15 (2024-04-15 19:18:27.111000)
updates: New data from Bloomberg shows strong advances in US GDP and GDI at the end of 2023. Wells Fargo predicts more jobs, inflation, and fewer rate cuts. The US economy is projected to expand at a relatively healthy pace. The US economy is expected to experience a deceleration in growth.
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Version 0.14 (2024-04-15 17:18:47.773000)
updates: New data shows strong advances in GDP and GDI at the end of 2023, NRF forecasts retail sales growth in 2024, US economy expected to experience a deceleration in growth
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Version 0.13 (2024-04-13 18:18:03.066000)
updates: New data shows strong advances in GDP and GDI at the end of 2023, NRF economist optimistic about 2024
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Version 0.12 (2024-04-10 19:18:00.284000)
updates: New information about the US economic outlook for 2024
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Version 0.11 (2024-04-04 19:18:03.307000)
updates: New data shows strong advances in US economic activity at the end of 2023, NRF economist remains optimistic about 2024 economic outlook
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Version 0.1 (2024-04-04 07:17:40.951000)
updates: NRF economist remains optimistic about US economy in 2024
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Version 0.09 (2024-04-03 15:19:16.748000)
updates: Inclusion of NRF economist's optimistic economic outlook for 2024
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Version 0.08 (2024-03-28 20:18:23.113000)
updates: New data shows strong growth in GDP and GDI at the end of 2023
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Version 0.07 (2024-03-28 18:20:37.340000)
updates: New data shows strong advances in US GDP and GDI at the end of 2023
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Version 0.06 (2024-03-28 14:17:51.620000)
updates: New data shows strong advances in GDP, GDI, consumer spending, and corporate profits
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Version 0.05 (2024-03-28 13:17:26.076000)
updates: New data shows strong GDP and GDI growth at the end of 2023
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Version 0.04 (2024-02-12 19:20:40.162000)
updates: Goldman Sachs disputes the recession signal from GDI
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Version 0.03 (2023-12-04 14:58:21.976000)
updates: Analysis of GDP and GDI gap, labor market changes
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Version 0.02 (2023-12-02 22:43:09.854000)
updates: Integration of new information about GDI indicating a possible recession
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Version 0.01 (2023-12-02 13:56:09.924000)
updates: Integration of analysis on GDP and GDI divergence
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