[Tree] US economic slowdown, labor market, Federal Reserve

Version 1.47 (2024-07-08 07:53:48.265000)

updates: US economic slowdown raises concerns, Fed expected to ease policy

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Version 1.46 (2024-07-06 15:54:49.576000)

updates: Recent data shows a rise in unemployment and a decline in job creation, signaling a slowdown in the economy. The Fed's next meeting in late July may see a more active debate on rate cuts.

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Version 1.45 (2024-07-05 11:55:27.915000)

updates: The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market for signs of weakening

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Version 1.44 (2024-07-05 02:53:54.610000)

updates: US Federal Reserve maintains patient approach on interest rates amid labor market concerns

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Version 1.43 (2024-07-03 19:55:02.823000)

updates: Fed officials express concerns about labor market weakness

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Version 1.42 (2024-07-03 19:54:33.026000)

updates: Added information about Federal Reserve officials' views on price pressures and interest rate cuts

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Version 1.41 (2024-07-03 16:57:40.080000)

updates: The US Federal Reserve maintains steady rates and awaits confirmation on inflation retreat

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Version 1.4 (2024-07-03 10:59:37.065000)

updates: New information on inflation slowing, Fed cautious on rate cuts

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Version 1.39 (2024-07-03 10:56:29.316000)

updates: Powell emphasizes the need for more data before rate cuts

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Version 1.38 (2024-07-03 08:55:37.184000)

updates: Additional information on Powell's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.37 (2024-07-03 07:53:52.612000)

updates: US inflation is slowing again, Fed cautious on rate cuts

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Version 1.36 (2024-07-03 05:56:21.528000)

updates: Updates on US inflation and Fed's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.35 (2024-07-03 05:54:41.801000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more evidence before rate cuts

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Version 1.34 (2024-07-03 02:53:58.131000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.33 (2024-07-03 01:54:38.391000)

updates: New information on US inflation cooling and the need for more data before rate cuts

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Version 1.32 (2024-07-03 00:55:15.492000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.31 (2024-07-02 22:56:03.185000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.3 (2024-07-02 21:54:53.820000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.29 (2024-07-02 20:58:15.754000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more data before considering rate cuts

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Version 1.28 (2024-07-02 20:54:45.446000)

updates: The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates despite cooling inflation

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Version 1.27 (2024-07-02 20:54:00.657000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.26 (2024-07-02 19:58:00.141000)

updates: Powell emphasizes need for more evidence before rate cuts

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Version 1.25 (2024-07-02 19:55:20.696000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more data before considering interest rate cuts. He highlighted the risks of acting too soon or too late and expressed concerns about the US debt burden and the need for fiscal sustainability. Powell refrained from committing to specific dates for rate cuts and downplayed worries about central bank independence. He expects inflation to be between 2% and 2.5% by next year and hopes for a stable labor market. The timing of rate cuts is uncertain, but most economists predict the first rate cut will occur in September.

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Version 1.24 (2024-07-02 19:53:46.304000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation, Fed's stance on rate cuts, and concerns about US debt path

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Version 1.23 (2024-07-02 19:00:26.980000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more evidence of falling inflation before rate cuts

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Version 1.22 (2024-07-02 17:58:29.279000)

updates: Powell emphasizes need for more confidence before cutting rates

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Version 1.21 (2024-07-02 17:54:56.203000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more data on falling inflation before rate cut

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Version 1.2 (2024-07-02 17:54:31.200000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation cooling and need for more data before rate cut

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Version 1.19 (2024-07-02 16:57:31.150000)

updates: Includes Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments on disinflationary path and need for more data before rate cut

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Version 1.18 (2024-07-02 16:57:04.547000)

updates: Powell says the Fed has made progress on inflation, could hit target next year

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Version 1.17 (2024-07-02 16:56:35.844000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.16 (2024-07-02 16:56:13.475000)

updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts

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Version 1.15 (2024-07-02 16:55:48.470000)

updates: New information on Powell's comments and the need for more evidence before rate cuts

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Version 1.14 (2024-07-02 16:55:26.525000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell stresses need for more data on falling inflation before rate cut

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Version 1.13 (2024-07-02 16:54:21.365000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell warns of unsustainable US debt path, downplays risks of possible Trump attacks on central bank independence

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Version 1.12 (2024-07-02 16:53:46.706000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell cites progress in inflation fight, considers rate cuts

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Version 1.11 (2024-07-02 15:56:35.471000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious approach on rate cuts

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Version 1.1 (2024-07-02 15:56:18.214000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell cautious on rate cuts, requires more data on falling inflation

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Version 1.09 (2024-07-02 15:54:56.209000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, need for more data on falling inflation

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Version 1.08 (2024-07-02 14:54:53.554000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, requires more data on falling inflation

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Version 1.07 (2024-07-01 15:56:29.674000)

updates: Includes expert opinion on whether the Fed's rate cut will be reactive or proactive

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Version 1.06 (2024-06-30 21:53:31.023000)

updates: Incorporated new information on inflation data and the potential for a rate cut

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Version 1.05 (2024-06-29 02:55:08.409000)

updates: Inflation data suggests cooling inflation, rate cut possibility

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Version 1.04 (2024-06-25 22:56:20.730000)

updates: Governor Cook's speech on the economic outlook

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Version 1.03 (2024-06-25 17:55:26.222000)

updates: Inclusion of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's comments on the US economy and inflation

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Version 1.02 (2024-06-25 16:58:18.160000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's statement on interest rate cuts

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Version 1.01 (2024-06-25 16:55:14.166000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's statement on rate cut and the possibility of rate cuts in September 2024

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Version 1.0 (2024-06-24 11:00:14.663000)

updates: Inclusion of information about the change in CME Fedwatch probabilities for the week ending June 21, 2024, and the views of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on inflation and rate cuts in September 2024

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Version 0.99 (2024-06-18 19:00:54.570000)

updates: Incorporated Governor Kugler's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy

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Version 0.98 (2024-06-18 18:55:36.142000)

updates: Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan's comments on the need for more data to be confident about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target

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Version 0.97 (2024-06-18 17:55:36.115000)

updates: St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem's cautious stance on interest rate cuts

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Version 0.96 (2024-06-18 17:55:22.686000)

updates: Adriana Kugler expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, recent data on consumers becoming more price sensitive and businesses having less flexibility to pass on price increases, and expects slowing wage growth and easing conditions in the labor market to help bring inflation back in line. Kugler believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy without causing a sharp contraction or significant deterioration in the labor market. However, she acknowledges that further progress in reducing inflation is likely to be gradual. [ab831d0a]

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Version 0.95 (2024-06-18 17:55:11.391000)

updates: Federal Reserve official expresses optimism about inflation fight and expects interest rate cuts later this year

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Version 0.94 (2024-06-18 17:53:57.149000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler expresses optimism about the U.S. economy

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Version 0.93 (2024-06-18 16:55:51.081000)

updates: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins emphasizes patience in considering rate cuts

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Version 0.92 (2024-06-14 18:56:25.720000)

updates: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee calls May's inflation report 'very good,' but more months of softer readings will be needed before the central bank can claim victory and potentially start easing monetary policy. Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of more progress on inflation before making any decision on a potential rate reduction. He also mentions the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on the export-import balance, employment, and inflation. Goolsbee states that credit delinquencies have been on the upswing, but not to levels that indicate a recession. He expresses openness to discussing a change in the Fed's inflation target, but only after it has been achieved. [5d75e2e3]

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Version 0.91 (2024-05-29 02:57:54.591000)

updates: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari emphasizes need for more positive inflation data before rate cuts

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Version 0.9 (2024-05-28 10:55:20.507000)

updates: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari emphasizes the need for significant progress on inflation before cutting rates

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Version 0.89 (2024-05-28 09:58:57.722000)

updates: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari emphasizes the need for 'many more months' of positive inflation data before considering rate cuts

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Version 0.88 (2024-05-28 08:52:54.949000)

updates: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's view on inflation data and rate cuts

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Version 0.87 (2024-05-26 08:54:46.188000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes need for 'good' inflation data before adjusting rates

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Version 0.86 (2024-05-21 22:54:56.706000)

updates: Incorporated additional statements from Federal Reserve Governor Waller on inflation and monetary policy

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Version 0.85 (2024-05-21 17:51:58.934000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller gives inflation report a 'C+' grade

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Version 0.84 (2024-05-21 16:58:39.835000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller stresses need for more inflation data before considering rate cuts

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Version 0.83 (2024-05-21 13:57:43.458000)

updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments on rate cuts

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Version 0.82 (2024-05-18 01:55:33.230000)

updates: Discussion of economic data and outlook for US and international economies

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Version 0.81 (2024-05-17 02:56:13.078000)

updates: The Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts despite improving data

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Version 0.8 (2024-05-16 23:52:29.427000)

updates: Integration of information on interest-rate cuts and US presidential election

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Version 0.79 (2024-05-16 12:56:57.056000)

updates: Major brokerages expect US rate cuts after soft inflation data

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Version 0.78 (2024-05-16 12:54:30.319000)

updates: Market speculation on Fed rate cut after soft U.S. CPI

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Version 0.77 (2024-05-16 10:53:20.656000)

updates: Traders are pricing in two rate cuts, possibility of a third

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Version 0.76 (2024-05-15 07:59:55.739000)

updates: Increased odds of rate cut in September

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Version 0.75 (2024-05-14 07:52:07.412000)

updates: Economists divided on timing of rate cut

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Version 0.74 (2024-05-13 19:54:50.117000)

updates: Analyst predicts no rate cut in 2024

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Version 0.73 (2024-05-13 17:53:59.414000)

updates: Economists predict Fed to cut rates in September

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Version 0.72 (2024-05-13 14:56:40.501000)

updates: Economists predict Fed to cut rates in September

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Version 0.71 (2024-05-13 14:54:32.140000)

updates: US Fed Vice Chair supports pause on interest rates

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Version 0.7 (2024-05-12 13:56:36.138000)

updates: Federal Reserve officials reinforce stance on interest rates

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Version 0.69 (2024-05-11 13:52:49.018000)

updates: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in June due to frustration over inflation progress

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Version 0.68 (2024-05-10 19:54:04.586000)

updates: Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates in June due to frustration over inflation progress

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Version 0.67 (2024-05-10 18:53:40.697000)

updates: Senior US Fed official expects no rate cuts this year

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Version 0.66 (2024-05-09 22:52:00.517000)

updates: Federal Reserve considers possibility of raising interest rates

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Version 0.65 (2024-05-07 09:55:12.436000)

updates: Possibility of Federal Reserve not cutting rates in 2024 increases, Asset managers' spending on legal fees, UK retail sales dip in April, US jobs fall short of expectations in May

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Version 0.64 (2024-05-07 01:53:09.293000)

updates: Inclusion of Federal Reserve President's statement on lower interest rates

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Version 0.63 (2024-05-06 20:53:48.710000)

updates: Inclusion of expert opinion on the possibility of rate cuts due to a weakening labor market

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Version 0.62 (2024-05-06 17:55:37.546000)

updates: New information about New York Fed's John Williams and his approach to rate cuts

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Version 0.61 (2024-05-06 15:56:24.551000)

updates: Inclusion of UBS managing director Jason Katz's statement on rate cuts being delayed

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Version 0.6 (2024-05-06 00:53:01.720000)

updates: US jobs data suggests rate cuts later this year

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Version 0.59 (2024-05-05 21:53:03.109000)

updates: Federal Reserve indicates no rate cuts until data is supportive

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Version 0.58 (2024-05-02 23:51:59.800000)

updates: HSBC revises Federal Reserve rate cut projection

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Version 0.57 (2024-05-01 15:56:32.328000)

updates: Differing forecasts for timing of rate cut

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Version 0.56 (2024-04-26 15:53:35.009000)

updates: Citigroup revises forecast for rate cuts in 2024

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Version 0.55 (2024-04-26 14:52:48.965000)

updates: Updated with Citi analysts' belief in rate cuts and GDP results

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Version 0.54 (2024-04-26 05:51:04.240000)

updates: The market is pricing out rate cuts in May, June, and July. The odds of a September rate cut are at ~76% currently. Traders are pricing in roughly 35 bps worth of rate cuts for the year.

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Version 0.53 (2024-04-25 18:57:17.743000)

updates: Inclusion of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO's prediction of one rate cut ahead of US presidential election

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Version 0.52 (2024-04-23 22:20:18.548000)

updates: Citi's forecast for Fed rate cuts in June or July

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Version 0.51 (2024-04-18 07:20:07.519000)

updates: Citigroup maintains forecast for rate cuts despite reduced expectations

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Version 0.5 (2024-04-18 04:19:58.203000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns

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Version 0.49 (2024-04-17 23:21:03.165000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signals delay in rate cuts due to higher-than-expected inflation readings

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Version 0.48 (2024-04-17 16:19:02.463000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in rate cuts due to inflation concerns

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Version 0.47 (2024-04-17 11:21:37.905000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns

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Version 0.46 (2024-04-17 10:18:49.586000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell mentions lack of further progress on inflation

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Version 0.45 (2024-04-17 08:18:12.658000)

updates: US Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns

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Version 0.44 (2024-04-17 05:23:20.907000)

updates: Additional information on Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's stance on maintaining restrictive monetary policy

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Version 0.43 (2024-04-17 04:20:26.969000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on inflation and rate cuts

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Version 0.42 (2024-04-17 03:21:09.023000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair confirms no interest rate cuts

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Version 0.41 (2024-04-16 23:20:46.996000)

updates: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals no rate cuts in the near future

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Version 0.4 (2024-04-16 23:20:19.555000)

updates: Fed Chair Powell indicates no rate cuts due to strong economy and sticky inflation

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Version 0.39 (2024-04-16 21:21:20.674000)

updates: Fed Chair Powell expresses concerns over lack of progress on inflation

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Version 0.38 (2024-04-16 20:18:17.797000)

updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell expresses concerns over lack of progress on inflation

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Version 0.37 (2024-04-16 18:18:40.658000)

updates: Powell hints at no interest rate cut in May

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Version 0.36 (2024-04-16 15:19:54.379000)

updates: Federal Reserve considers maintaining higher interest rates amid uncertain outlook

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Version 0.35 (2024-04-15 15:21:17.648000)

updates: Inflation concerns and balance sheet runoff discussed in FOMC minutes

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Version 0.34 (2024-04-10 19:18:46.509000)

updates: Inflation concerns and balance sheet runoff discussed in FOMC minutes

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Version 0.33 (2024-03-31 13:24:32.264000)

updates: Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to controlling inflation

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Version 0.32 (2024-03-31 13:18:35.471000)

updates: Fed Chair Powell denies increased tolerance for higher inflation

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Version 0.31 (2024-03-31 12:19:19.564000)

updates: Fed Chair pushes back on increased inflation tolerance

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Version 0.3 (2024-03-30 10:18:21.898000)

updates: Updates on US inflation, consumer spending, and economic indicators

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Version 0.29 (2024-03-29 18:17:41.419000)

updates: Updates on inflation, Federal Reserve's rate-cut promises, and concerns about inflation's impact on the US economy

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Version 0.28 (2024-03-27 18:17:35.046000)

updates: The Fed could cut rates 5 times in 2025

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Version 0.27 (2024-03-27 02:18:40.490000)

updates: Former central banker warns of inflation risks from rate-cut promises

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Version 0.26 (2024-03-26 02:20:13.591000)

updates: Updates on Fed officials' views on inflation

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Version 0.25 (2024-03-20 14:18:20.237000)

updates: Inflation expectations from Atlanta Fed tick up in March

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Version 0.24 (2024-03-20 14:17:59.002000)

updates: Consumer frustration and stagnant economy

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Version 0.23 (2024-03-14 23:28:28.201000)

updates: Bond yields rise, concerns about inflation grow

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Version 0.22 (2024-03-13 16:27:14.211000)

updates: The Principal Financial Group's perspective on inflation and rate cuts

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Version 0.21 (2024-03-13 03:17:11.698000)

updates: US markets remain confident in the Federal Reserve's plan to deliver three interest rate cuts this year, despite higher than expected inflation in February. The consumer price index rose 3.2% last month, faster than January's 3.1%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was up 3.8% in February. Economists are questioning whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing, lowering inflation without harming economic growth and causing unemployment to rise. Pessimistic economists warn of 'soft stagnation' if inflation persists, while optimists predict robust economic growth. The Fed aims to reduce inflation to 2%, but this will be challenging due to strong job market, housing-related inflation, and higher inflation expectations. Investors are not concerned about stubborn inflation as it allows companies to maintain pricing power and stronger corporate earnings. The Fed is expected to deliver the first rate cut in June.

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Version 0.2 (2024-03-12 16:18:58.053000)

updates: Inflation rate for February exceeds expectations, higher-than-expected CPI data may support US Dollar Index and put pressure on gold markets, stock traders likely to ignore inflation reports and focus on AI stocks

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Version 0.19 (2024-03-12 15:21:16.500000)

updates: Inflation breakdown and its impact on the Federal Reserve

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Version 0.18 (2024-03-11 15:17:03.441000)

updates: Federal Reserve officials in blackout period, consumer inflation expectations, additional expert opinion on inflation dynamics

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Version 0.17 (2024-03-11 10:25:13.029000)

updates: London Stock Exchange prepares for US inflation data

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Version 0.16 (2024-03-11 06:29:25.943000)

updates: The US stock market awaits the February inflation report

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Version 0.15 (2024-03-10 16:17:47.521000)

updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts

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Version 0.15 (2024-03-10 16:17:47.521000)

updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts

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Version 0.14 (2024-03-07 23:20:22.774000)

updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts

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Version 0.13 (2024-03-06 20:19:23.483000)

updates: Bond market volatility and inflation fears

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Version 0.12 (2024-03-06 19:17:52.980000)

updates: New information on upcoming data and inflation fears

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Version 0.11 (2024-03-04 02:18:57.056000)

updates: Increased expectations of interest rate cuts in the US

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Version 0.1 (2024-02-12 01:20:58.320000)

updates: Updates on US bond yields and rate expectations

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Version 0.09 (2024-02-08 06:13:33.462000)

updates: Uncertainty in US Treasury market as Fed signals caution

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Version 0.08 (2024-02-05 04:12:45.187000)

updates: Bond traders remain confident about Fed rate cuts despite recent pullback

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Version 0.07 (2024-01-15 04:20:20.014000)

updates: Bond traders are betting on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, but the path to cheaper borrowing costs is expected to be bumpy. US Treasuries rallied at the end of 2023 as investors saw signs of cooling inflation and speculated on rate cuts. Fresh readings on jobs and inflation have increased the probability of rate cuts starting in March. However, there is uncertainty surrounding longer-term yields and how an easing scenario will play out. Forecasters have differing opinions on long-term rates, leading to potential volatility in the market. The next reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Jan. 26. Swaps traders are predicting at least six quarter-point rate reductions in 2024. A Treasury auction on Thursday of new 10-year inflation-protected bonds may shed light on investor attitudes.

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Version 0.06 (2024-01-08 14:24:52.631000)

updates: Bond traders remain confident about Fed rate cuts

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Version 0.05 (2024-01-07 21:16:50.496000)

updates: Bond traders remain optimistic about Fed rate cuts

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Version 0.04 (2023-12-26 07:01:42.770000)

updates: New information on the Federal Reserve's expected rate reductions in 2024 and the impact on bond markets

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Version 0.03 (2023-12-13 05:18:11.742000)

updates: Investors await Chair Jerome Powell's speech and dot-plot release

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Version 0.02 (2023-12-11 14:42:30.398000)

updates: Bond investors are bracing for pushback from the Federal Reserve on the market's expectation of rate cuts in early 2024. Many portfolio managers have reduced their long-duration bets to be more neutral on their bond positions. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady and not signal a shift from its tightening policy stance. Federal funds futures have lowered the odds of a rate cut in March but still see a 79% chance in May. The rapid decline in yields has made financial conditions looser, prompting investors to buy Treasuries. Asset managers are betting on 'higher-for-longer' rates until the summer but still expect the Fed to eventually cut rates later in the year.

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Version 0.01 (2023-12-11 13:49:41.657000)

updates: Bond investors are bracing for pushback from the Federal Reserve on rate cuts

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Version 0.0 (2023-11-30 21:36:29.694000)

updates:

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