[Tree] Construction activity and crane counts in Honolulu.
Version 3.34 (2024-10-07 19:42:36.021000)
updates: Honolulu sees increased construction cranes and activity.
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Version 3.33 (2024-10-01 09:36:14.307000)
updates: Inflation drop and rate cuts boost construction outlook
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Version 3.32 (2024-09-27 09:45:49.036000)
updates: Insights on Fed rate cuts and construction challenges
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Version 3.31 (2024-09-26 11:42:14.771000)
updates: Fed and Wall Street disagree on rate cut pace
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Version 3.3 (2024-09-26 02:35:39.980000)
updates: Inclusion of global recession fears and Bitcoin surge
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Version 3.29 (2024-09-25 11:40:51.981000)
updates: Bowman's dissent and global rate cuts included.
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Version 3.28 (2024-09-24 19:38:53.361000)
updates: Inclusion of Jim Rickards' recession predictions
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Version 3.27 (2024-09-24 16:46:02.417000)
updates: Added Bowman's dissent and inflation concerns
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Version 3.26 (2024-09-24 15:39:35.299000)
updates: Bowman's dissent highlights inflation concerns and cautious cuts
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Version 3.25 (2024-09-24 15:38:17.136000)
updates: Invesco's analysis on Fed's rate cut implications
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Version 3.24 (2024-09-24 13:39:49.421000)
updates: Bowman's dissent highlights inflation risks and cautious cuts.
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Version 3.23 (2024-09-24 02:39:07.635000)
updates: Added analyst insights on inflation concerns post-rate cut
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Version 3.22 (2024-09-23 20:47:19.870000)
updates: Added details on Fed's rate cut implications
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Version 3.21 (2024-09-23 19:53:45.428000)
updates: Added details on mortgage rates and public sentiment
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Version 3.2 (2024-09-23 19:46:57.844000)
updates: Manufacturers advised on strategic responses to rate cuts
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Version 3.19 (2024-09-23 18:42:07.914000)
updates: Fed rate cut introduces new economic challenges
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Version 3.18 (2024-09-23 14:39:34.510000)
updates: Bostic's comments on economic normalization and rate cuts
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Version 3.17 (2024-09-23 13:53:09.454000)
updates: Added consumer sentiment and Bank of America expansion plans
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Version 3.16 (2024-09-23 13:50:14.873000)
updates: Added consumer confidence and GDP growth insights
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Version 3.15 (2024-09-23 09:38:48.046000)
updates: Added insights on market performance and neutral rates
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Version 3.14 (2024-09-23 08:34:42.986000)
updates: Added analysis on implications of rate cuts
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Version 3.13 (2024-09-23 00:40:18.619000)
updates: Upcoming PCE data and global economic events
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Version 3.12 (2024-09-22 21:47:45.234000)
updates: Incorporated market expectations and potential economic impacts
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Version 3.11 (2024-09-22 19:36:00.289000)
updates: Incorporated analysis of economic implications of rate cuts
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Version 3.1 (2024-09-22 16:34:52.329000)
updates: Incorporated recent Fed rate cut details and market reactions
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Version 3.09 (2024-09-22 13:49:44.776000)
updates: Positive market response; upcoming economic data releases
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Version 3.08 (2024-09-22 11:36:13.781000)
updates: Latest inflation data supports Fed's rate cut decision
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Version 3.07 (2024-09-22 10:35:28.547000)
updates: Inclusion of global central bank updates and forecasts
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Version 3.06 (2024-09-22 05:39:05.790000)
updates: Added Beige Book insights and further rate cut projections
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Version 3.05 (2024-09-22 04:47:14.652000)
updates: Stocks soared after Fed's rate cut announcement
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Version 3.04 (2024-09-22 02:52:01.348000)
updates: Inclusion of recent Fed decisions and economic forecasts
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Version 3.03 (2024-09-21 05:36:49.995000)
updates: Added details on Fed's rate cut impact and projections
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Version 3.02 (2024-09-21 00:41:57.266000)
updates: Added housing market updates post-Fed rate cut
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Version 3.01 (2024-09-20 23:35:03.297000)
updates: Added supply chain crisis concerns and market reactions
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Version 3.0 (2024-09-20 19:41:28.339000)
updates: Incorporated latest Fed rate cut details and market reactions
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Version 2.99 (2024-09-20 19:36:40.013000)
updates: Added global economic implications and FOMC details
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Version 2.98 (2024-09-20 16:42:19.223000)
updates: Incorporated insights from J.P. Morgan analysis
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Version 2.97 (2024-09-20 16:36:09.338000)
updates: Incorporated internal Fed debates and labor market concerns
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Version 2.96 (2024-09-20 15:42:02.082000)
updates: Added Canadian inflation data and corporate earnings updates
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Version 2.95 (2024-09-20 14:36:31.718000)
updates: Added details on Fed's rate cut and market reactions
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Version 2.94 (2024-09-20 12:38:54.283000)
updates: Incorporated market reactions and expert analysis
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Version 2.93 (2024-09-20 12:37:23.485000)
updates: Fed cuts rates to address job market issues
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Version 2.92 (2024-09-20 07:37:39.892000)
updates: Added context about Bank of Japan's interest rates
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Version 2.91 (2024-09-20 05:37:54.683000)
updates: Added context on political implications and market reactions
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Version 2.9 (2024-09-20 05:36:57.647000)
updates: Added details on Fed's rate cut and projections
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Version 2.89 (2024-09-20 02:45:32.653000)
updates: Incorporated analysis on consumer confidence and elections
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Version 2.88 (2024-09-20 00:37:05.299000)
updates: Incorporated analysis on Fed's strategy and market volatility
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Version 2.87 (2024-09-20 00:34:08.596000)
updates: Added global implications of Fed's rate cut
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Version 2.86 (2024-09-19 23:38:32.272000)
updates: Biden's comments on the rate cut and its significance
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Version 2.85 (2024-09-19 19:34:22.581000)
updates: Fed cuts rates amid rising unemployment and inflation changes
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Version 2.84 (2024-09-19 17:46:21.819000)
updates: Details on global effects and political reactions
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Version 2.83 (2024-09-19 17:43:58.564000)
updates: Added details on inflation and economic impact
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Version 2.82 (2024-09-19 17:43:12.465000)
updates: Fed cuts rates to balance economic risks
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Version 2.81 (2024-09-19 17:38:43.560000)
updates: Fed cuts rates amid recession concerns; proactive measures noted
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Version 2.8 (2024-09-19 16:44:35.554000)
updates: Added insights on political reactions and economic forecasts
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Version 2.79 (2024-09-19 15:33:34.273000)
updates: Added political reactions and corporate news updates
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Version 2.78 (2024-09-19 14:37:34.500000)
updates: Added dissenting opinion and recession caution
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Version 2.77 (2024-09-19 12:46:06.817000)
updates: Inclusion of recent Fed rate cut details and market reactions
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Version 2.76 (2024-09-19 12:37:29.225000)
updates: Inclusion of effects on Kenyan markets and investments
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Version 2.75 (2024-09-19 11:35:02.517000)
updates: Added political context to Fed's rate decision
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Version 2.74 (2024-09-19 11:34:08.735000)
updates: Added analysis on election impact and economic forecasts
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Version 2.73 (2024-09-19 10:47:58.100000)
updates: Incorporated recent Fed rate cut and economic analysis
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Version 2.72 (2024-09-19 09:48:27.530000)
updates: Incorporated details about the Fed's rate cut
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Version 2.71 (2024-09-19 09:44:20.409000)
updates: Added details on political implications and dissent
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Version 2.7 (2024-09-19 09:35:58.443000)
updates: Added analysis from PIMCO on rate cut implications
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Version 2.69 (2024-09-19 09:35:06.884000)
updates: Added analysis on political implications and market reactions
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Version 2.68 (2024-09-19 08:35:41.188000)
updates: Inclusion of details on rate cut and inflation
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Version 2.67 (2024-09-19 08:34:21.436000)
updates: Incorporated details on job market and political implications.
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Version 2.66 (2024-09-19 06:39:09.014000)
updates: Market reactions and economic outlook updates
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Version 2.65 (2024-09-19 04:45:22.561000)
updates: Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points; future cuts expected.
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Version 2.64 (2024-09-19 04:41:54.512000)
updates: Added political implications and Trump criticism
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Version 2.63 (2024-09-19 04:36:43.825000)
updates: Incorporated recent rate cut details and implications.
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Version 2.62 (2024-09-19 03:39:44.750000)
updates: Updated details on Fed's rate cut and market response
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Version 2.61 (2024-09-19 03:39:07.321000)
updates: Updated details on Fed's rate cut and projections
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Version 2.6 (2024-09-19 03:33:52.743000)
updates: Incorporated latest Fed rate cut details and implications.
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Version 2.59 (2024-09-19 02:49:16.440000)
updates: Added details on inflation and GDP forecasts
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Version 2.58 (2024-09-19 02:36:11.748000)
updates: Integration of presidential election implications
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Version 2.57 (2024-09-19 01:37:44.038000)
updates: Added insights on soft landing and global impact
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Version 2.56 (2024-09-19 01:37:07.476000)
updates: Added analysis of political implications of rate cut
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Version 2.55 (2024-09-19 01:36:30.209000)
updates: Fed cuts rates; unemployment and inflation projections updated
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Version 2.54 (2024-09-19 01:35:30.083000)
updates: Fed cuts rates for first time in four years
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Version 2.53 (2024-09-19 00:47:20.107000)
updates: Added details on political pressures for rate cuts
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Version 2.52 (2024-09-19 00:45:05.524000)
updates: Updated inflation rates and Fed's future projections
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Version 2.51 (2024-09-19 00:43:27.597000)
updates: Updated inflation and unemployment statistics included
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Version 2.5 (2024-09-19 00:40:50.621000)
updates: Consensus on rate cuts lacks; UK inflation steady
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Version 2.49 (2024-09-18 22:38:32.367000)
updates: Fed cuts rate by 0.5%, signaling economic adjustments
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Version 2.48 (2024-09-18 22:34:29.242000)
updates: Increased focus on credit card debt and economic troubles
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Version 2.47 (2024-09-18 21:44:47.693000)
updates: Fed cuts rate by 0.5%, signaling policy shift
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Version 2.46 (2024-09-18 21:41:50.548000)
updates: Added market reactions and unemployment data.
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Version 2.45 (2024-09-18 20:47:57.746000)
updates: Fed cuts rates, inflation projections revised down
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Version 2.44 (2024-09-18 20:45:46.038000)
updates: Added details on dissent and economic projections
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Version 2.43 (2024-09-18 20:44:30.002000)
updates: Fed cuts rates to combat slowing job growth
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Version 2.42 (2024-09-18 20:43:14.473000)
updates: Added Bank of England's stance on interest rates
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Version 2.41 (2024-09-18 20:34:06.867000)
updates: Fed cuts rates, economic conditions worsen
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Version 2.4 (2024-09-18 19:50:08.726000)
updates: Updated interest rate cut details and economic context
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Version 2.39 (2024-09-18 19:47:32.940000)
updates: Added insights from industry experts on rate cut implications
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Version 2.38 (2024-09-18 19:40:53.111000)
updates: Fed cuts rates, signaling easing era begins
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Version 2.37 (2024-09-18 19:36:40.654000)
updates: Fed cuts rates; Powell emphasizes economic stability.
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Version 2.36 (2024-09-18 18:49:59.162000)
updates: UAE Central Bank also cuts interest rates
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Version 2.35 (2024-09-18 18:48:34.314000)
updates: First rate cut in over four years; inflation target at 2%
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Version 2.34 (2024-09-18 18:45:36.564000)
updates: Fed cuts rates to support job market and curb inflation
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Version 2.33 (2024-09-18 18:44:45.647000)
updates: Added details on labor market and inflation trends
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Version 2.32 (2024-09-18 18:43:15.952000)
updates: Fed cuts rates by 0.5 percentage points; inflation outlook improves
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Version 2.31 (2024-09-18 18:39:32.202000)
updates: Fed cuts rates; recession fears rise; market reactions positive.
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Version 2.3 (2024-09-18 18:38:02.765000)
updates: Fed cuts rate, signaling end to inflation fight
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Version 2.29 (2024-09-18 18:36:52.527000)
updates: Incorporated recession fears and updated economic indicators
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Version 2.28 (2024-09-18 18:36:01.695000)
updates: Fed cuts rates for the first time in four years
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Version 2.27 (2024-09-18 18:33:15.950000)
updates: Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point
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Version 2.26 (2024-09-18 17:40:06.506000)
updates: Fed expected to cut rates for first time since 2020
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Version 2.25 (2024-09-18 15:43:34.728000)
updates: Added insights on IT sector's response to rate cut
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Version 2.24 (2024-09-18 14:39:04.253000)
updates: Added details on economic growth and mortgage rates
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Version 2.23 (2024-09-18 13:40:45.045000)
updates: Updated with latest Fed rate cut details
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Version 2.22 (2024-09-18 10:37:19.579000)
updates: Details on consumer impact and economic recovery
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Version 2.21 (2024-09-18 09:43:58.959000)
updates: Biden administration claims vindication for economic policies
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Version 2.2 (2024-09-18 09:35:22.413000)
updates: Added recent Fed rate cut announcement details
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Version 2.19 (2024-09-17 12:44:16.426000)
updates: BlackRock reduces rate cut odds; inflation concerns persist
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Version 2.18 (2024-09-17 12:40:55.615000)
updates: BlackRock warns cuts may be less than expected
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Version 2.17 (2024-09-17 12:36:37.646000)
updates: Added context on inflation and job growth
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Version 2.16 (2024-09-17 11:35:12.179000)
updates: Gulf countries expected to ease rates after Fed cuts
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Version 2.15 (2024-09-17 08:35:54.476000)
updates: Inclusion of labor market conditions and election context
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Version 2.14 (2024-09-17 03:33:53.773000)
updates: Global implications of Fed's rate cuts highlighted
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Version 2.13 (2024-09-17 01:39:47.526000)
updates: Added insights on hotel sector and consumer debt
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Version 2.12 (2024-09-17 01:37:59.262000)
updates: Added details about the Fed's leadership and inflation trends
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Version 2.11 (2024-09-17 00:48:36.548000)
updates: Federal Reserve expected to cut rates in September 2024.
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Version 2.1 (2024-08-01 14:02:13.575000)
updates: Impact of high interest rates on vehicle financing costs
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Version 2.09 (2024-08-01 08:10:21.575000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates steady for the eighth consecutive meeting and hints at a possible rate cut in September
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Version 2.08 (2024-08-01 08:03:40.319000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty
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Version 2.06 (2024-08-01 06:03:29.379000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive term. The Fed hinted at a possible rate cut in September. The Fed plans to reduce its holdings of treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Fed remains focused on achieving a 2% inflation target and maximum employment. The Fed's decision-making process involves a complex interplay of economic factors and requires careful analysis of various indicators and risks to the economy. The Fed's decision to cut rates will be mainly based on inflation readings. The Fed is considering lowering borrowing costs based on key economic indicators. The Fed's rate cuts can have ripple effects on borrowing costs, savings and investments, currency values, stock market performance, and the housing market. The Fed aims to support sustainable economic growth while maintaining price stability. The Fed's decision on rate cuts is influenced by factors such as inflation data, labor market performance, economic growth, and fiscal policy developments. The Fed's projected timeline for rate cuts includes September 2024, December 2024, and beyond. The Fed's decision to wait on cutting rates may have implications for the housing and auto markets.
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Version 2.05 (2024-08-01 05:00:35.541000)
updates: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, hints at rate cut in September
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Version 2.04 (2024-08-01 04:03:37.858000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rates at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive term. The Fed noted that job gains in the US economy have moderated and the unemployment rate has increased slightly but remains low. The committee reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2%. The Fed will continue to assess incoming data and economic conditions to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy. The Fed also plans to reduce its holdings of treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [fed0d41c].
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Version 2.03 (2024-08-01 04:02:06.527000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve left its key lending rate unchanged; Recent data suggests progress in bringing inflation back down to its long-term target of two percent; Fed Chair Jerome Powell may hint at a possible interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting in September.
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Version 2.02 (2024-08-01 04:01:21.157000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve hints at a possible rate cut in September
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Version 2.01 (2024-08-01 01:00:27.022000)
updates: US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, but cuts expected soon
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Version 2.0 (2024-07-31 22:03:42.654000)
updates: Includes warning signs in the credit market and the impact on the housing and auto markets
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Version 1.99 (2024-07-31 17:08:57.554000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is considering lowering borrowing costs in the coming months based on more than just inflation data. Recent data shows milder price increases and robust economic growth, but the Fed wants more assurance that inflation will continue to fall towards their 2% target. The closely-watched jobs report on Friday will provide further insight into the labor market. The July employment report is likely to show a continued softening in the pace of hiring. Hurricane Beryl presents a wild card that could restrain hours worked. The Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts is influenced by factors such as inflation data, labor market performance, economic growth, and fiscal policy developments. The projected timeline for rate cuts includes September 2024, December 2024, and beyond. The Fed's decision-making process involves a complex interplay of economic factors and requires careful analysis of various indicators and risks to the economy. US credit conditions are getting tighter, possibly bolstering the Federal Reserve's case for future interest rate cuts. US central bankers are considering the latest quarterly survey from bank loan officers during their rate-setting meeting. This survey is expected to show continued weakening in loan demand from consumers and businesses, alongside tighter credit standards. The Fed favors the current moderation in loan demand and tighter credit conditions. The Fed's rate-hiking campaign has led to stricter lending standards and slower loan growth. Conditions are approaching a 'neutral state,' which is optimal for a 'soft landing' – reducing inflation without triggering a recession or substantial rise in unemployment. The longer the Fed delays reducing policy rates, potential economic vulnerabilities become a growing concern.
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Version 1.98 (2024-07-31 15:00:31.045000)
updates: Federal Reserve officials likely to set stage for rate cut
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Version 1.97 (2024-07-31 14:06:54.789000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the coming months, but not at its meeting this week. Recent economic data shows that the US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, which may complicate the path toward a rate cut. US credit conditions are getting tighter, possibly bolstering the Federal Reserve's case for future interest rate cuts.
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Version 1.96 (2024-07-31 12:03:06.894000)
updates: Information about US credit conditions and loan demand
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Version 1.95 (2024-07-31 11:07:20.192000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates at its meeting this week
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Version 1.94 (2024-07-31 10:01:23.267000)
updates: Fed officials are pleased with the latest inflation data but not fully comfortable yet with slashing rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting news conference could provide clarity on the timing of the first rate cut. The US economy is achieving a 'soft landing' with inflation slowing to the Fed's 2% target without a recession. The Fed's decision to cut rates will be mainly based on inflation readings. The Fed's July monetary policy meeting concludes with an announcement and press conference led by Chair Powell [276bed54].
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Version 1.92 (2024-07-28 09:08:59.507000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is considering rate cuts based on multiple economic indicators
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Version 1.9 (2024-07-27 18:16:20.018000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is considering rate cuts following minimal inflation data. The possibility of rate cuts is already influencing currency and bond markets. The majority of economists expect rate cuts to happen in September and December. The Fed's decision on when to cut rates is influenced by a range of factors, including inflation data, labor market conditions, and the potential risks to the economy.
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Version 1.89 (2024-07-26 18:05:59.156000)
updates: The Federal Reserve's dilemma on timing of rate cuts
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Version 1.88 (2024-07-26 14:11:03.875000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is considering rate cuts due to minimal inflation data
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Version 1.87 (2024-07-26 14:01:47.897000)
updates: The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and the possibility of a September rate cut
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Version 1.86 (2024-07-26 13:04:03.222000)
updates: US Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates in September
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Version 1.85 (2024-07-24 17:09:48.501000)
updates: Updated information on the expected timing and number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
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Version 1.84 (2024-07-23 17:09:29.473000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, in September and December, according to economists in a Reuters poll. The majority of economists believe that resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation. All 100 economists in the poll expect rates to remain unchanged on July 31, with 82% forecasting a 25-basis-point cut in September. Nearly three-quarters of economists predict two 25-basis-point cuts this year, with 70% expecting them in September and December. The Fed is expected to cut rates once in each quarter through 2025, taking the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of 2025. The US Federal Reserve is closely watching upcoming economic data before making a decision on interest rate cuts. The Fed's decision will depend on data aligning with their expectations, including progress on lowering inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its July 30-31 meeting but may lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. The gap between the July and September meetings allows for more data to accumulate. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 5.25 percentage points over 12 policy meetings, but inflation has been slowing recently. The Fed's preferred inflation index was 2.6% in May and is expected to dip to 2.5% or lower in June. The Fed will receive additional inflation data in July and August before the September meeting. The unemployment rate is currently 4.1%, which the Fed considers sustainable in the long run. Employment reports will be closely watched to confirm that rising wages and labor shortages no longer pose an inflation risk. The Fed's decision on interest rates will have significant implications for investors and the economy. Fed officials are hesitant to lower interest rates due to an unexpected inflation flare-up in the last quarter. However, favorable inflation data and signs of a cooling labor market suggest that the high bar for rate reduction has been met. John Williams and Christopher Waller of the New York Fed express optimism about the downdraft in inflation but warn of uncertain future rate reduction due to uneven inflation data. Fed officials are split on whether there should be one or two interest rate reductions this year. The Fed wants to ensure that inflation continues to trend down towards its 2% annual goal before committing to lowering borrowing costs. The decision to delay the interest rate cut is based on the need for more data to accumulate and align with the Fed's expectations. The Fed's decision will have significant implications for investors and the economy.
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Version 1.83 (2024-07-23 16:08:12.965000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, in September and December, according to economists in a Reuters poll. The decision is based on resilient consumer demand and easing inflation. The majority of economists forecast a 25-basis-point cut in September, pushing the federal funds rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range. The second cut is expected in December. The Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged on July 31. The outlook will depend on key data releases, including GDP and personal consumption expenditures price index data for June. Inflation is not expected to reach 2% until at least 2026. The Fed is predicted to cut rates once in each quarter through 2025, taking the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4% range by the end of 2025. The US economy is forecast to expand 2.3% this year.
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Version 1.82 (2024-07-23 15:16:09.078000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, in September and December. The majority of economists believe that resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation. Strong retail sales in June and a consensus view that the jobless rate won't rise much argue for patience. The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at its July 30-31 meeting but may lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. The gap between the July and September meetings allows for more data to accumulate. Fed officials want to see monthly price numbers continuing to trend down towards their 2% annual inflation goal before committing to lowering borrowing costs. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes a cut in the policy rate is warranted as the labor market is in a 'sweet spot'. The rebalancing in the labor market has been accompanied by a moderation in consumer spending. Fed officials are aware that maintaining their current stance amid easing inflation is a form of tightening. Investors interpret officials' comments as signaling a September rate cut, with many already seeing it as a near certainty. Early communication from Fed officials could help make the case to the public. The Fed emphasizes that it stays out of politics and will do what's best for the economy. Fed officials are hesitant to lower interest rates due to an unexpected inflation flare-up in the last quarter. However, favorable inflation data and signs of a cooling labor market suggest that the high bar for rate reduction has been met. John Williams and Christopher Waller of the New York Fed express optimism about the downdraft in inflation but warn of uncertain future rate reduction due to uneven inflation data. Fed officials are split on whether there should be one or two interest rate reductions this year. The Fed wants to ensure that inflation continues to trend down towards its 2% annual goal before committing to lowering borrowing costs. The decision to delay the interest rate cut is based on the need for more data to accumulate and align with the Fed's expectations. The Fed's decision will have significant implications for investors and the economy.
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Version 1.81 (2024-07-23 14:02:12.086000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, with the first move anticipated in September, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
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Version 1.8 (2024-07-22 04:57:52.034000)
updates: Fed officials are hesitant to lower interest rates due to an unexpected inflation flare-up in the last quarter. Favorable inflation data and signs of a cooling labor market suggest that the high bar for rate reduction has been met. John Williams and Christopher Waller of the New York Fed express optimism about the downdraft in inflation but warn of uncertain future rate reduction due to uneven inflation data. Fed officials are split on whether there should be one or two interest rate reductions this year.
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Version 1.79 (2024-07-20 17:07:15.911000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve is closely watching upcoming economic data before making a decision on interest rate cuts.
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Version 1.78 (2024-07-19 04:01:52.447000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve is preparing for a September rate cut as risks to the labor market have grown. Fed officials want to see monthly price numbers continuing to trend down towards their 2% annual inflation goal before committing to lowering borrowing costs. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes a cut in the policy rate is warranted as the labor market is in a 'sweet spot'. The rebalancing in the labor market has been accompanied by a moderation in consumer spending. Fed officials are aware that maintaining their current stance amid easing inflation is a form of tightening. Investors interpret officials' comments as signaling a September rate cut, with many already seeing it as a near certainty. Early communication from Fed officials could help make the case to the public. The Fed emphasizes that it stays out of politics and will do what's best for the economy.
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Version 1.77 (2024-07-17 17:00:36.146000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expresses support for rate cuts
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Version 1.76 (2024-07-17 11:57:01.527000)
updates: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams emphasizes the importance of balancing the risks of holding rates too high for too long versus cutting prematurely and stalling progress on curbing price pressures. Williams wants to see more evidence in the coming months before lowering borrowing costs. Recent data has shown a renewed easing in price pressures, with a key gauge of consumer prices posting the smallest advance since 2021 in June. Williams believes that if they get more data like this, he would find greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably to 2%.
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Version 1.75 (2024-07-17 09:54:15.503000)
updates: Discussion of the possibility of rate cuts in July
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Version 1.74 (2024-07-17 08:54:38.907000)
updates: Updates on the Fed's decision-making process and the possibility of rate cuts in July
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Version 1.73 (2024-07-14 00:54:55.615000)
updates: Incorporated analysis on the need for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve
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Version 1.72 (2024-07-12 18:57:24.769000)
updates: The Fed might focus on the weakening labor market rather than inflation as it considers rate cuts
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Version 1.71 (2024-07-11 09:54:16.800000)
updates: Updated information on the Fed's focus on the job market and potential interest rate cuts
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Version 1.7 (2024-07-11 08:59:35.051000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's perspective on a potential soft landing in the US economy
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Version 1.69 (2024-07-11 06:55:19.781000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is optimistic about the trajectory of the US economy, stating that inflation may continue to decrease without a significant increase in unemployment. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is currently at 2.6%, just above the central bank's 2% target, while the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%. Cook believes that a 'soft landing' for the US economy is possible, with inflation gradually moving towards the target and unemployment remaining stable. Soft landings are more likely when policy easing begins with inflation close to the target and when there is a firm growth backdrop.
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Version 1.68 (2024-07-11 05:57:02.866000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell signals potential interest rate cut amid cooling labor market
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Version 1.67 (2024-07-11 02:54:22.976000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell signals potential interest rate cut amid cooling labor market
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Version 1.66 (2024-07-11 01:55:26.534000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes importance of job market amid cooling economic growth
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Version 1.65 (2024-07-10 23:54:00.814000)
updates: Inclusion of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's forecast on declining inflation without a significant rise in unemployment
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Version 1.64 (2024-07-10 22:57:28.676000)
updates: New information on Powell's Congressional testimony and market reactions
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Version 1.63 (2024-07-10 22:56:27.781000)
updates: Updated information on Fed's focus on job market and rate cuts
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Version 1.62 (2024-07-10 21:56:02.980000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes importance of job market
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Version 1.61 (2024-07-10 20:56:35.430000)
updates: Updated information on the Fed's focus on the job market and potential rate cuts
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Version 1.6 (2024-07-10 20:01:12.141000)
updates: Powell emphasizes independence from political timelines in rate cut decisions
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Version 1.59 (2024-07-10 19:59:12.866000)
updates: Powell's focus on soft landing and inflation concerns
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Version 1.58 (2024-07-10 19:54:36.273000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell reinforces message of cooling job market and possible rate cut
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Version 1.57 (2024-07-10 18:54:58.208000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell expresses concerns about the slowing job market
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Version 1.56 (2024-07-10 17:54:04.568000)
updates: Updates on Powell's remarks about the cooling job market and potential rate cuts
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Version 1.55 (2024-07-10 16:56:30.394000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell signals potential rate cuts
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Version 1.54 (2024-07-10 16:56:01.425000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell signals potential rate cuts as economy cools
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Version 1.53 (2024-07-10 08:56:02.934000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell signals potential rate cuts as inflation improves
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Version 1.52 (2024-07-10 07:59:03.754000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious approach on rate timing signals
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Version 1.51 (2024-07-10 07:57:28.752000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks on the labor market and inflation
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Version 1.5 (2024-07-10 07:54:14.654000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's testimony to Congress on US economy cooling and job market
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Version 1.49 (2024-07-10 03:53:55.255000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments on cooling labor market and possible rate cuts
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Version 1.48 (2024-07-08 18:55:06.368000)
updates: Revisions to previous months' labor data indicate a slowdown in job growth
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Version 1.47 (2024-07-08 07:53:48.265000)
updates: US economic slowdown raises concerns, Fed expected to ease policy
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Version 1.46 (2024-07-06 15:54:49.576000)
updates: Recent data shows a rise in unemployment and a decline in job creation, signaling a slowdown in the economy. The Fed's next meeting in late July may see a more active debate on rate cuts.
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Version 1.45 (2024-07-05 11:55:27.915000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market for signs of weakening
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Version 1.44 (2024-07-05 02:53:54.610000)
updates: US Federal Reserve maintains patient approach on interest rates amid labor market concerns
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Version 1.43 (2024-07-03 19:55:02.823000)
updates: Fed officials express concerns about labor market weakness
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Version 1.42 (2024-07-03 19:54:33.026000)
updates: Added information about Federal Reserve officials' views on price pressures and interest rate cuts
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Version 1.41 (2024-07-03 16:57:40.080000)
updates: The US Federal Reserve maintains steady rates and awaits confirmation on inflation retreat
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Version 1.4 (2024-07-03 10:59:37.065000)
updates: New information on inflation slowing, Fed cautious on rate cuts
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Version 1.39 (2024-07-03 10:56:29.316000)
updates: Powell emphasizes the need for more data before rate cuts
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Version 1.38 (2024-07-03 08:55:37.184000)
updates: Additional information on Powell's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.37 (2024-07-03 07:53:52.612000)
updates: US inflation is slowing again, Fed cautious on rate cuts
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Version 1.36 (2024-07-03 05:56:21.528000)
updates: Updates on US inflation and Fed's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.35 (2024-07-03 05:54:41.801000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more evidence before rate cuts
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Version 1.34 (2024-07-03 02:53:58.131000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.33 (2024-07-03 01:54:38.391000)
updates: New information on US inflation cooling and the need for more data before rate cuts
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Version 1.32 (2024-07-03 00:55:15.492000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.31 (2024-07-02 22:56:03.185000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.3 (2024-07-02 21:54:53.820000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.29 (2024-07-02 20:58:15.754000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more data before considering rate cuts
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Version 1.28 (2024-07-02 20:54:45.446000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates despite cooling inflation
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Version 1.27 (2024-07-02 20:54:00.657000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.26 (2024-07-02 19:58:00.141000)
updates: Powell emphasizes need for more evidence before rate cuts
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Version 1.25 (2024-07-02 19:55:20.696000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more data before considering interest rate cuts. He highlighted the risks of acting too soon or too late and expressed concerns about the US debt burden and the need for fiscal sustainability. Powell refrained from committing to specific dates for rate cuts and downplayed worries about central bank independence. He expects inflation to be between 2% and 2.5% by next year and hopes for a stable labor market. The timing of rate cuts is uncertain, but most economists predict the first rate cut will occur in September.
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Version 1.24 (2024-07-02 19:53:46.304000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation, Fed's stance on rate cuts, and concerns about US debt path
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Version 1.23 (2024-07-02 19:00:26.980000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more evidence of falling inflation before rate cuts
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Version 1.22 (2024-07-02 17:58:29.279000)
updates: Powell emphasizes need for more confidence before cutting rates
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Version 1.21 (2024-07-02 17:54:56.203000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasizes need for more data on falling inflation before rate cut
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Version 1.2 (2024-07-02 17:54:31.200000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation cooling and need for more data before rate cut
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Version 1.19 (2024-07-02 16:57:31.150000)
updates: Includes Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments on disinflationary path and need for more data before rate cut
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Version 1.18 (2024-07-02 16:57:04.547000)
updates: Powell says the Fed has made progress on inflation, could hit target next year
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Version 1.17 (2024-07-02 16:56:35.844000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.16 (2024-07-02 16:56:13.475000)
updates: Updated information on US inflation and Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts
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Version 1.15 (2024-07-02 16:55:48.470000)
updates: New information on Powell's comments and the need for more evidence before rate cuts
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Version 1.14 (2024-07-02 16:55:26.525000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell stresses need for more data on falling inflation before rate cut
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Version 1.13 (2024-07-02 16:54:21.365000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell warns of unsustainable US debt path, downplays risks of possible Trump attacks on central bank independence
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Version 1.12 (2024-07-02 16:53:46.706000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell cites progress in inflation fight, considers rate cuts
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Version 1.11 (2024-07-02 15:56:35.471000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious approach on rate cuts
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Version 1.1 (2024-07-02 15:56:18.214000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell cautious on rate cuts, requires more data on falling inflation
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Version 1.09 (2024-07-02 15:54:56.209000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, need for more data on falling inflation
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Version 1.08 (2024-07-02 14:54:53.554000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, requires more data on falling inflation
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Version 1.07 (2024-07-01 15:56:29.674000)
updates: Includes expert opinion on whether the Fed's rate cut will be reactive or proactive
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Version 1.06 (2024-06-30 21:53:31.023000)
updates: Incorporated new information on inflation data and the potential for a rate cut
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Version 1.05 (2024-06-29 02:55:08.409000)
updates: Inflation data suggests cooling inflation, rate cut possibility
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Version 1.04 (2024-06-25 22:56:20.730000)
updates: Governor Cook's speech on the economic outlook
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Version 1.03 (2024-06-25 17:55:26.222000)
updates: Inclusion of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's comments on the US economy and inflation
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Version 1.02 (2024-06-25 16:58:18.160000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's statement on interest rate cuts
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Version 1.01 (2024-06-25 16:55:14.166000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's statement on rate cut and the possibility of rate cuts in September 2024
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Version 1.0 (2024-06-24 11:00:14.663000)
updates: Inclusion of information about the change in CME Fedwatch probabilities for the week ending June 21, 2024, and the views of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on inflation and rate cuts in September 2024
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Version 0.99 (2024-06-18 19:00:54.570000)
updates: Incorporated Governor Kugler's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy
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Version 0.98 (2024-06-18 18:55:36.142000)
updates: Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan's comments on the need for more data to be confident about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target
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Version 0.97 (2024-06-18 17:55:36.115000)
updates: St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem's cautious stance on interest rate cuts
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Version 0.96 (2024-06-18 17:55:22.686000)
updates: Adriana Kugler expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, recent data on consumers becoming more price sensitive and businesses having less flexibility to pass on price increases, and expects slowing wage growth and easing conditions in the labor market to help bring inflation back in line. Kugler believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy without causing a sharp contraction or significant deterioration in the labor market. However, she acknowledges that further progress in reducing inflation is likely to be gradual. [ab831d0a]
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Version 0.95 (2024-06-18 17:55:11.391000)
updates: Federal Reserve official expresses optimism about inflation fight and expects interest rate cuts later this year
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Version 0.94 (2024-06-18 17:53:57.149000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler expresses optimism about the U.S. economy
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Version 0.93 (2024-06-18 16:55:51.081000)
updates: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins emphasizes patience in considering rate cuts
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Version 0.92 (2024-06-14 18:56:25.720000)
updates: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee calls May's inflation report 'very good,' but more months of softer readings will be needed before the central bank can claim victory and potentially start easing monetary policy. Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of more progress on inflation before making any decision on a potential rate reduction. He also mentions the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on the export-import balance, employment, and inflation. Goolsbee states that credit delinquencies have been on the upswing, but not to levels that indicate a recession. He expresses openness to discussing a change in the Fed's inflation target, but only after it has been achieved. [5d75e2e3]
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Version 0.91 (2024-05-29 02:57:54.591000)
updates: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari emphasizes need for more positive inflation data before rate cuts
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Version 0.9 (2024-05-28 10:55:20.507000)
updates: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari emphasizes the need for significant progress on inflation before cutting rates
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Version 0.89 (2024-05-28 09:58:57.722000)
updates: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari emphasizes the need for 'many more months' of positive inflation data before considering rate cuts
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Version 0.88 (2024-05-28 08:52:54.949000)
updates: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's view on inflation data and rate cuts
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Version 0.87 (2024-05-26 08:54:46.188000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes need for 'good' inflation data before adjusting rates
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Version 0.86 (2024-05-21 22:54:56.706000)
updates: Incorporated additional statements from Federal Reserve Governor Waller on inflation and monetary policy
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Version 0.85 (2024-05-21 17:51:58.934000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller gives inflation report a 'C+' grade
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Version 0.84 (2024-05-21 16:58:39.835000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller stresses need for more inflation data before considering rate cuts
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Version 0.83 (2024-05-21 13:57:43.458000)
updates: Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments on rate cuts
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Version 0.82 (2024-05-18 01:55:33.230000)
updates: Discussion of economic data and outlook for US and international economies
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Version 0.81 (2024-05-17 02:56:13.078000)
updates: The Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts despite improving data
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Version 0.8 (2024-05-16 23:52:29.427000)
updates: Integration of information on interest-rate cuts and US presidential election
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Version 0.79 (2024-05-16 12:56:57.056000)
updates: Major brokerages expect US rate cuts after soft inflation data
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Version 0.78 (2024-05-16 12:54:30.319000)
updates: Market speculation on Fed rate cut after soft U.S. CPI
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Version 0.77 (2024-05-16 10:53:20.656000)
updates: Traders are pricing in two rate cuts, possibility of a third
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Version 0.76 (2024-05-15 07:59:55.739000)
updates: Increased odds of rate cut in September
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Version 0.75 (2024-05-14 07:52:07.412000)
updates: Economists divided on timing of rate cut
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Version 0.74 (2024-05-13 19:54:50.117000)
updates: Analyst predicts no rate cut in 2024
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Version 0.73 (2024-05-13 17:53:59.414000)
updates: Economists predict Fed to cut rates in September
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Version 0.72 (2024-05-13 14:56:40.501000)
updates: Economists predict Fed to cut rates in September
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Version 0.71 (2024-05-13 14:54:32.140000)
updates: US Fed Vice Chair supports pause on interest rates
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Version 0.7 (2024-05-12 13:56:36.138000)
updates: Federal Reserve officials reinforce stance on interest rates
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Version 0.69 (2024-05-11 13:52:49.018000)
updates: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in June due to frustration over inflation progress
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Version 0.68 (2024-05-10 19:54:04.586000)
updates: Federal Reserve unlikely to cut rates in June due to frustration over inflation progress
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Version 0.67 (2024-05-10 18:53:40.697000)
updates: Senior US Fed official expects no rate cuts this year
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Version 0.66 (2024-05-09 22:52:00.517000)
updates: Federal Reserve considers possibility of raising interest rates
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Version 0.65 (2024-05-07 09:55:12.436000)
updates: Possibility of Federal Reserve not cutting rates in 2024 increases, Asset managers' spending on legal fees, UK retail sales dip in April, US jobs fall short of expectations in May
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Version 0.64 (2024-05-07 01:53:09.293000)
updates: Inclusion of Federal Reserve President's statement on lower interest rates
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Version 0.63 (2024-05-06 20:53:48.710000)
updates: Inclusion of expert opinion on the possibility of rate cuts due to a weakening labor market
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Version 0.62 (2024-05-06 17:55:37.546000)
updates: New information about New York Fed's John Williams and his approach to rate cuts
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Version 0.61 (2024-05-06 15:56:24.551000)
updates: Inclusion of UBS managing director Jason Katz's statement on rate cuts being delayed
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Version 0.6 (2024-05-06 00:53:01.720000)
updates: US jobs data suggests rate cuts later this year
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Version 0.59 (2024-05-05 21:53:03.109000)
updates: Federal Reserve indicates no rate cuts until data is supportive
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Version 0.58 (2024-05-02 23:51:59.800000)
updates: HSBC revises Federal Reserve rate cut projection
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Version 0.56 (2024-04-26 15:53:35.009000)
updates: Citigroup revises forecast for rate cuts in 2024
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Version 0.55 (2024-04-26 14:52:48.965000)
updates: Updated with Citi analysts' belief in rate cuts and GDP results
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Version 0.54 (2024-04-26 05:51:04.240000)
updates: The market is pricing out rate cuts in May, June, and July. The odds of a September rate cut are at ~76% currently. Traders are pricing in roughly 35 bps worth of rate cuts for the year.
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Version 0.53 (2024-04-25 18:57:17.743000)
updates: Inclusion of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO's prediction of one rate cut ahead of US presidential election
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Version 0.52 (2024-04-23 22:20:18.548000)
updates: Citi's forecast for Fed rate cuts in June or July
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Version 0.51 (2024-04-18 07:20:07.519000)
updates: Citigroup maintains forecast for rate cuts despite reduced expectations
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Version 0.5 (2024-04-18 04:19:58.203000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns
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Version 0.49 (2024-04-17 23:21:03.165000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signals delay in rate cuts due to higher-than-expected inflation readings
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Version 0.48 (2024-04-17 16:19:02.463000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in rate cuts due to inflation concerns
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Version 0.47 (2024-04-17 11:21:37.905000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns
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Version 0.46 (2024-04-17 10:18:49.586000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell mentions lack of further progress on inflation
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Version 0.45 (2024-04-17 08:18:12.658000)
updates: US Federal Reserve Chair signals delay in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns
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Version 0.44 (2024-04-17 05:23:20.907000)
updates: Additional information on Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's stance on maintaining restrictive monetary policy
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Version 0.43 (2024-04-17 04:20:26.969000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on inflation and rate cuts
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Version 0.42 (2024-04-17 03:21:09.023000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair confirms no interest rate cuts
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Version 0.41 (2024-04-16 23:20:46.996000)
updates: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals no rate cuts in the near future
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Version 0.4 (2024-04-16 23:20:19.555000)
updates: Fed Chair Powell indicates no rate cuts due to strong economy and sticky inflation
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Version 0.39 (2024-04-16 21:21:20.674000)
updates: Fed Chair Powell expresses concerns over lack of progress on inflation
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Version 0.38 (2024-04-16 20:18:17.797000)
updates: Federal Reserve Chair Powell expresses concerns over lack of progress on inflation
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Version 0.37 (2024-04-16 18:18:40.658000)
updates: Powell hints at no interest rate cut in May
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Version 0.36 (2024-04-16 15:19:54.379000)
updates: Federal Reserve considers maintaining higher interest rates amid uncertain outlook
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Version 0.35 (2024-04-15 15:21:17.648000)
updates: Inflation concerns and balance sheet runoff discussed in FOMC minutes
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Version 0.34 (2024-04-10 19:18:46.509000)
updates: Inflation concerns and balance sheet runoff discussed in FOMC minutes
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Version 0.33 (2024-03-31 13:24:32.264000)
updates: Fed Chair Powell reiterates commitment to controlling inflation
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Version 0.32 (2024-03-31 13:18:35.471000)
updates: Fed Chair Powell denies increased tolerance for higher inflation
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Version 0.31 (2024-03-31 12:19:19.564000)
updates: Fed Chair pushes back on increased inflation tolerance
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Version 0.3 (2024-03-30 10:18:21.898000)
updates: Updates on US inflation, consumer spending, and economic indicators
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Version 0.29 (2024-03-29 18:17:41.419000)
updates: Updates on inflation, Federal Reserve's rate-cut promises, and concerns about inflation's impact on the US economy
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Version 0.28 (2024-03-27 18:17:35.046000)
updates: The Fed could cut rates 5 times in 2025
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Version 0.27 (2024-03-27 02:18:40.490000)
updates: Former central banker warns of inflation risks from rate-cut promises
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Version 0.26 (2024-03-26 02:20:13.591000)
updates: Updates on Fed officials' views on inflation
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Version 0.25 (2024-03-20 14:18:20.237000)
updates: Inflation expectations from Atlanta Fed tick up in March
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Version 0.24 (2024-03-20 14:17:59.002000)
updates: Consumer frustration and stagnant economy
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Version 0.23 (2024-03-14 23:28:28.201000)
updates: Bond yields rise, concerns about inflation grow
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Version 0.22 (2024-03-13 16:27:14.211000)
updates: The Principal Financial Group's perspective on inflation and rate cuts
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Version 0.21 (2024-03-13 03:17:11.698000)
updates: US markets remain confident in the Federal Reserve's plan to deliver three interest rate cuts this year, despite higher than expected inflation in February. The consumer price index rose 3.2% last month, faster than January's 3.1%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was up 3.8% in February. Economists are questioning whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing, lowering inflation without harming economic growth and causing unemployment to rise. Pessimistic economists warn of 'soft stagnation' if inflation persists, while optimists predict robust economic growth. The Fed aims to reduce inflation to 2%, but this will be challenging due to strong job market, housing-related inflation, and higher inflation expectations. Investors are not concerned about stubborn inflation as it allows companies to maintain pricing power and stronger corporate earnings. The Fed is expected to deliver the first rate cut in June.
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Version 0.2 (2024-03-12 16:18:58.053000)
updates: Inflation rate for February exceeds expectations, higher-than-expected CPI data may support US Dollar Index and put pressure on gold markets, stock traders likely to ignore inflation reports and focus on AI stocks
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Version 0.19 (2024-03-12 15:21:16.500000)
updates: Inflation breakdown and its impact on the Federal Reserve
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Version 0.18 (2024-03-11 15:17:03.441000)
updates: Federal Reserve officials in blackout period, consumer inflation expectations, additional expert opinion on inflation dynamics
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Version 0.17 (2024-03-11 10:25:13.029000)
updates: London Stock Exchange prepares for US inflation data
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Version 0.16 (2024-03-11 06:29:25.943000)
updates: The US stock market awaits the February inflation report
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Version 0.15 (2024-03-10 16:17:47.521000)
updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts
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Version 0.15 (2024-03-10 16:17:47.521000)
updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts
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Version 0.14 (2024-03-07 23:20:22.774000)
updates: Updates on bond market sentiment and expectations for rate cuts
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Version 0.13 (2024-03-06 20:19:23.483000)
updates: Bond market volatility and inflation fears
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Version 0.12 (2024-03-06 19:17:52.980000)
updates: New information on upcoming data and inflation fears
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Version 0.11 (2024-03-04 02:18:57.056000)
updates: Increased expectations of interest rate cuts in the US
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Version 0.1 (2024-02-12 01:20:58.320000)
updates: Updates on US bond yields and rate expectations
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Version 0.09 (2024-02-08 06:13:33.462000)
updates: Uncertainty in US Treasury market as Fed signals caution
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Version 0.08 (2024-02-05 04:12:45.187000)
updates: Bond traders remain confident about Fed rate cuts despite recent pullback
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Version 0.07 (2024-01-15 04:20:20.014000)
updates: Bond traders are betting on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, but the path to cheaper borrowing costs is expected to be bumpy. US Treasuries rallied at the end of 2023 as investors saw signs of cooling inflation and speculated on rate cuts. Fresh readings on jobs and inflation have increased the probability of rate cuts starting in March. However, there is uncertainty surrounding longer-term yields and how an easing scenario will play out. Forecasters have differing opinions on long-term rates, leading to potential volatility in the market. The next reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Jan. 26. Swaps traders are predicting at least six quarter-point rate reductions in 2024. A Treasury auction on Thursday of new 10-year inflation-protected bonds may shed light on investor attitudes.
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Version 0.06 (2024-01-08 14:24:52.631000)
updates: Bond traders remain confident about Fed rate cuts
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Version 0.05 (2024-01-07 21:16:50.496000)
updates: Bond traders remain optimistic about Fed rate cuts
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Version 0.04 (2023-12-26 07:01:42.770000)
updates: New information on the Federal Reserve's expected rate reductions in 2024 and the impact on bond markets
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Version 0.03 (2023-12-13 05:18:11.742000)
updates: Investors await Chair Jerome Powell's speech and dot-plot release
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Version 0.02 (2023-12-11 14:42:30.398000)
updates: Bond investors are bracing for pushback from the Federal Reserve on the market's expectation of rate cuts in early 2024. Many portfolio managers have reduced their long-duration bets to be more neutral on their bond positions. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady and not signal a shift from its tightening policy stance. Federal funds futures have lowered the odds of a rate cut in March but still see a 79% chance in May. The rapid decline in yields has made financial conditions looser, prompting investors to buy Treasuries. Asset managers are betting on 'higher-for-longer' rates until the summer but still expect the Fed to eventually cut rates later in the year.
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Version 0.01 (2023-12-11 13:49:41.657000)
updates: Bond investors are bracing for pushback from the Federal Reserve on rate cuts
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