Economic conditions and political implications in the US

Version 1.56 (2024-11-15 20:35:51.087000)

updates: Election results and economic challenges highlighted

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Version 1.55 (2024-10-29 22:35:14.025000)

updates: El-Erian predicts soft landing despite election challenges

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Version 1.54 (2024-10-29 12:39:12.386000)

updates: El-Erian predicts soft landing; rising recession risks

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Version 1.53 (2024-10-29 11:35:38.218000)

updates: Yellen's comments on economy impact voter sentiment

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Version 1.52 (2024-10-12 11:39:23.059000)

updates: Added political context and recent developments

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Version 1.51 (2024-10-11 21:36:44.793000)

updates: JPMorgan's soft landing report and recession concerns

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Version 1.5 (2024-10-08 04:33:54.366000)

updates: Incorporated insights from John Williams on economic outlook

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Version 1.49 (2024-10-07 22:34:19.522000)

updates: Job growth, inflation rates, and Fed focus updates

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Version 1.48 (2024-10-07 15:41:15.226000)

updates: Updated job figures and economic forecasts

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Version 1.47 (2024-10-07 14:35:55.002000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment rate drops.

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Version 1.46 (2024-10-07 13:34:45.812000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment rate drops

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Version 1.45 (2024-10-07 07:43:39.149000)

updates: Added details on job contributions and economic outlook

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Version 1.44 (2024-10-07 05:42:15.835000)

updates: Job gains, unemployment rate drop, economic forecasts

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Version 1.43 (2024-10-07 03:38:11.281000)

updates: September job growth exceeded expectations significantly

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Version 1.42 (2024-10-06 07:33:56.340000)

updates: Job growth, unemployment rates, and economic outlook

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Version 1.41 (2024-10-06 05:39:25.803000)

updates: Job growth, unemployment rate, market reactions, and commodities

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Version 1.4 (2024-10-06 05:38:42.510000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; tech sector hiring surges

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Version 1.39 (2024-10-06 02:41:38.276000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; inflation concerns persist

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Version 1.38 (2024-10-05 11:38:22.431000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment rate drops.

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Version 1.37 (2024-10-05 07:35:46.849000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; strikes may impact future growth.

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Version 1.36 (2024-10-05 05:40:11.788000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment rate drops.

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Version 1.35 (2024-10-05 03:34:14.907000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment dips to 4.1%

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Version 1.34 (2024-10-05 01:36:23.539000)

updates: Job growth and wage increases impact Fed's rate decisions

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Version 1.33 (2024-10-05 01:34:51.546000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment decreases.

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Version 1.32 (2024-10-05 00:40:25.484000)

updates: Job growth, unemployment rate drop, economic impact on elections

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Version 1.31 (2024-10-04 22:44:33.964000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; stock market hits record high.

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Version 1.3 (2024-10-04 22:41:58.411000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment dips to 4.1%

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Version 1.29 (2024-10-04 21:43:59.405000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; unemployment falls to 4.1%

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Version 1.28 (2024-10-04 21:41:20.418000)

updates: Strong job growth and political reactions detailed

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Version 1.27 (2024-10-04 20:49:56.194000)

updates: Job growth exceeds expectations; wages rise significantly.

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Version 1.26 (2024-10-04 20:37:40.565000)

updates: Incorporated latest job growth data and Fed insights

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Version 1.25 (2024-10-04 20:34:27.188000)

updates: Strong job gains impact Fed rate cut considerations

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Version 1.24 (2024-10-04 18:51:48.710000)

updates: Updated job data and Fed rate outlook

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Version 1.23 (2024-08-31 02:35:39.493000)

updates: Incorporated recent PCE data and market trends.

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Version 1.22 (2024-08-01 15:04:41.534000)

updates: US nonfarm payrolls preview for July

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Version 1.21 (2024-07-09 11:54:45.782000)

updates: Updates on the US NFP job report and its impact on Dow, Gold, and Powell

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Version 1.2 (2024-07-05 12:57:35.770000)

updates: Updates on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, US Dollar, stock market, and Gold prices

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Version 1.19 (2024-07-04 13:55:53.189000)

updates: Inclusion of an article discussing expectations for the non-farm payrolls report and its potential impact on the stock market

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Version 1.18 (2024-07-04 11:56:39.608000)

updates: Inclusion of economists' predictions for slower jobs growth and steady jobless rate

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Version 1.17 (2024-07-04 04:54:23.540000)

updates: Integrates new information about the US economic exceptionalism narrative and the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report

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Version 1.16 (2024-07-04 03:57:31.835000)

updates: Uncertain outlook ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls report

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Version 1.15 (2024-06-21 17:56:40.218000)

updates: The US Dollar strengthened on the back of robust Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for June released by S&P. The S&P Global Composite PMI for June rose slightly from 54.5 in May to a flash estimate of 54.6, indicating a healthy expansion in business activity within the private sector of the United States. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.7 within the same time frame, while Services PMI witnessed an increase to 55.1 from 54.8 in May. The US Dollar seems to be poised for additional gains as technical indicators demonstrate renewed bullish momentum. The probability of a rate cut in September stands around 65% according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Federal Reserve holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The Fed's primary tool to achieve its goals is by adjusting interest rates. When inflation is above the Fed's 2% target, it raises interest rates, resulting in a stronger US Dollar. Quantitative easing (QE) weakens the US Dollar, while quantitative tightening (QT) is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

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Version 1.14 (2024-06-21 13:53:51.456000)

updates: Positive US PMI data shows unexpected economic expansion

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Version 1.13 (2024-06-21 08:55:44.917000)

updates: Updates on US PMI data and its impact on the US Dollar

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Version 1.12 (2024-06-20 05:58:10.475000)

updates: New Zealand exits technical recession, flash PMIs, bond auction in New Zealand, China's PBOC focuses on risks of holding long-term government bonds, European Commission puts France and Italy on EDP watch, Bank of England rate decision, US equity futures reach fresh highs, gold and silver spikes, Bitcoin price falls due to increased whale activities

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Version 1.11 (2024-06-03 05:55:31.960000)

updates: Updates on NZD/USD trading sideways, US Manufacturing PMI data

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Version 1.1 (2024-04-01 11:20:48.359000)

updates: Added information about commodity dollars benefiting from improving Chinese economy

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Version 1.09 (2024-04-01 05:19:23.422000)

updates: Updates on NZD/USD gains, Powell's comments, and US ISM PMI data

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Version 1.08 (2024-03-29 02:19:33.267000)

updates: Includes information about the NZD/USD pair remaining under selling pressure and the impact of dovish comments from the RBNZ Governor

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Version 1.07 (2024-03-25 23:22:57.329000)

updates: Updates on NZD/USD trading, US PCE data, and New Zealand economy

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Version 1.06 (2024-03-25 20:20:34.609000)

updates: New information on Kiwi dollar facing downside pressure

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Version 1.05 (2024-03-17 20:19:16.449000)

updates: The recent increase in oil prices has disrupted the US inflation outlook, causing equities to fall, bond yields to increase, and the US dollar to strengthen. The higher-than-expected January and February Producers Price Index (PPI) increases have led to concerns about inflation. However, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its view or stance due to these oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices. The US interest rate markets are now questioning whether the Fed can make four interest rate cuts this year. The Kiwi dollar has experienced repeating patterns of up and down movements, with three clear cycles of down, up, and down again over the last seven years. The NZD/USD exchange rate is currently trading below 0.6100 due to the rebound in the US dollar index caused by the increase in crude oil prices. The Kiwi dollar needs to convincingly move above the downtrend line at 0.6250 to break out of the downtrend and start appreciating. The NZD/AUD cross-rate has spiked higher multiple times but has always rapidly reversed back down. The recent decrease in the NZD/AUD rate is likely due to weaker economic data in New Zealand and fund managers taking the opportunity to buy AUD more cheaply. The counterargument to the view of a Kiwi dollar recovery is weaker NZ economic data suggesting earlier interest rate cuts, which would not benefit the Kiwi dollar. The NZD/USD rate is awaiting more convincing confirmation that US inflation and employment data is weaker in 2024 to allow for US interest rate decreases and a weaker USD. The Fed meeting on March 20th is not expected to result in significant changes to their statement wording or rhetoric. The PCE inflation measure for February will be released on March 28th and is likely to impact the US 10-year bond yield and the USD Index. The Fed's pivot on monetary policy in December 2023 allowed for a rapid ascent of the Kiwi dollar, but it was another false start to a new uptrend. The movement of the Kiwi dollar is closely tied to export commodity prices and the interest rate gap between New Zealand and the US. The NZD/AUD cross-rate has experienced multiple spikes higher but has always rapidly reversed back down. The recent decrease in the NZD/AUD rate is likely due to weaker economic data in New Zealand and fund managers taking the opportunity to buy AUD more cheaply. Local AUD exporters should be prepared to enter new hedges with FX orders placed between 0.9200 and 0.9000.

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Version 1.04 (2024-03-15 06:23:37.546000)

updates: The Australian dollar weakened due to strong US inflation data

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Version 1.04 (2024-03-15 06:23:37.546000)

updates: The Australian dollar weakened due to strong US inflation data

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Version 1.03 (2024-03-14 00:18:01.965000)

updates: New information on US producer prices and retail sales impacting AUD/USD

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Version 1.02 (2024-03-13 06:19:42.861000)

updates: Includes new information on US inflation, Chinese economic indicators, RBA rate hike speculations, and gold prices

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Version 1.01 (2024-03-13 05:18:47.563000)

updates: The Australian dollar is facing renewed pressure from stronger-than-anticipated US inflation data, which has clouded the outlook for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. However, the Aussie remains supported by expectations that the Fed will start easing policy earlier than other major central banks. Data last week showed that Australia's economy expanded less than expected in Q4 2023, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia could start cutting rates this year. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia reiterated its forecast of 75 basis points in total rate reductions this year after the weak GDP data.

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Version 1.0 (2024-03-12 20:19:39.140000)

updates: Inclusion of information on US inflation impact on AUD/USD and rise in gold prices

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Version 0.99 (2024-03-11 21:21:41.380000)

updates: Includes information on AUD/USD rebounding above 0.6600, Powell's dovish testimony, and strong gold prices

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Version 0.98 (2024-03-11 00:17:17.501000)

updates: Updated information on China inflation and US data

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Version 0.97 (2024-03-08 00:19:21.061000)

updates: Updates on trade data from Australia and China, and Fed rate cut bets

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Version 0.96 (2024-03-06 17:17:59.862000)

updates: The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged despite weak GDP data.

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Version 0.95 (2024-03-06 00:17:02.355000)

updates: Updates on Q4 GDP numbers from Australia, US labor market data, and Fed Chair Powell's testimony

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Version 0.94 (2024-03-02 05:26:36.834000)

updates: The AUD/USD exchange rate continued consolidating on Wednesday morning as US bond yields pulled back after weak economic reports. The pair was hovering at $0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of $0.6595. The AUD/USD pair moved sideways as US bond yields dropped after weak US consumer confidence and durable goods order numbers. The yield of the 10-year government bonds pulled back to 4.28% while 30-year fell to 4.41%. The next important data to watch will be the upcoming second estimate of the US GDP numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 3.3% in Q4 after growing by 4.9% in the previous quarter. The AUD/USD pair remained in a tight range this week as US bond yields retreated. It was trading at $0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of $0.6595. The pair will likely remain in this range in the coming days, with the next support and resistance points to watch being at $0.6500 and $0.6595. The Australian dollar initially declined but later recovered and showed signs of life. This indicates that we may be seeing more of the same in the Forex markets. The Australian dollar did weaken during early trading hours before rebounding, confirming the ongoing consolidation. Central banks worldwide may need to loosen at some point this year, leading to a race to the bottom for currencies. The 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA are being closely observed, with a potential high of 0.66. Downside targets are at 0.6450 and 0.65. If the Australian dollar weakens further, the US dollar may strengthen to the 0.63 mark. However, widespread weakness in the US dollar is needed for the Australian dollar to reach 0.69. There is no compelling reason for the Australian currency to appreciate, as there is no interest rate disparity and the world economy's expansion isn't boosting commodity markets. The Australian dollar is influenced by China and is expected to continue following the same pattern.

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Version 0.93 (2024-03-01 00:17:50.812000)

updates: AUD/USD registered back-to-back trading sessions with losses

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Version 0.92 (2024-02-29 22:16:27.195000)

updates: Inclusion of information about the expected fall of AUD/USD due to US economic growth and China's struggles

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Version 0.91 (2024-02-28 06:18:57.985000)

updates: The AUD/USD exchange rate continued consolidating on Wednesday morning as US bond yields pulled back after weak economic reports. The pair was hovering at $0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of $0.6595. The AUD/USD pair moved sideways as US bond yields dropped after weak US consumer confidence and durable goods order numbers. The yield of the 10-year government bonds pulled back to 4.28% while 30-year fell to 4.41%. The next important data to watch will be the upcoming second estimate of the US GDP numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 3.3% in Q4 after growing by 4.9% in the previous quarter. The AUD/USD pair remained in a tight range this week as US bond yields retreated. It was trading at $0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of $0.6595. The pair will likely remain in this range in the coming days, with the next support and resistance points to watch being at $0.6500 and $0.6595.

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Version 0.9 (2024-02-28 00:17:31.558000)

updates: Incorporated information about the AUD/USD gaining on Tuesday and the upcoming Australian CPI Report, as well as additional details about the factors influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate and the short-term trends for the currency pair.

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Version 0.89 (2024-02-27 00:21:03.083000)

updates: The AUD/USD declined on Monday due to US economic indicators impacting buyer demand. The article also provides insights into upcoming events that could affect the exchange rate, such as inflation figures from Australia and the US, stimulus chatter from Beijing, US consumer confidence, US house prices, and Fed speeches. It also highlights the influence of concerns about the Chinese economy on near-term trends for the AUD/USD. Additionally, the article mentions the Australian inflation numbers for January and their potential impact on the RBA rate path. It emphasizes the importance of US consumer confidence data and its potential implications for consumer spending. The article concludes by noting that short-term trends for the AUD/USD will depend on inflation numbers and central bank chatter, as well as US inflation and Fed speeches. Overall, the article provides a more comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate.

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Version 0.88 (2024-02-26 23:19:45.683000)

updates: The AUD/USD slid 0.35% on Monday amid a mixed market mood and a rise in US Treasury bond yields. Investors bracing for the release of crucial economic data in the United States (US) and Australia were the main reason behind the pair’s price action, even though the Greenback posted solid losses. Wall Street ended Monday’s session with a mixed tone as traders turned cautious. Eight Federal Reserve speakers would cross the wires during the week, while the release of Durable Goods Orders could support the Fed’s doves as orders are estimated to have plunged in January. On Australia’s front, the economic docket is absent as AUD/USD traders brace for Tuesday's release of inflation figures for the last quarter of 2023. The AUD/USD has remained pressured as Iron ore prices fell to their lowest in four months, as inventories in China pile up, amid the struggle of the property market.

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Version 0.87 (2024-02-26 00:16:44.647000)

updates: Inclusion of information on China's house prices, RBA Governor's statement, and upcoming economic indicators

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Version 0.86 (2024-02-25 23:20:33.857000)

updates: Updated information on AUD/USD exchange rate and upcoming economic data

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Version 0.85 (2024-02-24 01:19:52.019000)

updates: Includes analysis of the Australian dollar facing a mega-bear market

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Version 0.84 (2024-02-23 00:19:19.565000)

updates: Added information about China's real estate sector and Fed commentary

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Version 0.83 (2024-02-22 00:17:36.477000)

updates: Inclusion of information about Australian private sector PMIs and Fed speakers

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Version 0.82 (2024-02-18 07:19:22.315000)

updates: Updated information on the AUD/USD exchange rate and the upcoming US inflation data

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Version 0.81 (2024-02-13 08:25:36.094000)

updates: Updated information on AUD/USD signal and outlook

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Version 0.8 (2024-02-08 08:12:44.659000)

updates: Bearish breakout looms in AUD/USD pair

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