As of December 2024, private-sector economists have projected Singapore's economy to grow by 2.6% in 2025, a moderation from the anticipated 3.6% growth for 2024. This forecast reflects a slight improvement from earlier estimates of 2.5% for 2025, as reported in the latest Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) survey released on December 11, 2024 [86d95263].
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has also revised its growth estimate for 2024 to around 3.5%, up from a previous range of 2-3%. However, MTI expects growth to temper to between 1-3% in 2025, citing weaker global dynamics as a significant factor [86d95263]. Concerns regarding the U.S. economic moderation and China's deceleration, particularly amid declining exports, have been highlighted as risks to Singapore's growth trajectory [86d95263].
Geopolitical tensions have emerged as a pressing downside risk, with 100% of MAS survey respondents flagging this concern, a notable increase from 66.7% in September [86d95263]. Additionally, the probability of Singapore's GDP growth falling within the range of 2.5-2.9% has risen to 36%, indicating growing uncertainty in economic forecasts [86d95263].
The economic landscape is further complicated by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's plans to significantly raise tariffs starting January 20, 2025, which could introduce additional trade policy uncertainties [86d95263]. On the inflation front, Singapore's inflation rate is projected to ease to 1.9% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024, providing some relief amid the economic challenges [86d95263].
As Singapore navigates these complex global dynamics, the focus will remain on how these factors influence both domestic and international economic conditions in the coming years.