As Malaysia approaches 2025, various forecasts present a nuanced picture of its economic growth. Affin Group has projected Malaysia's GDP growth at 5.2% for 2025, an increase from 5.0% in 2024. This growth is expected to be driven by a rise in oil prices, anticipated to reach US$75 (RM335) per barrel, up from US$74 [93911724]. Datuk Wan Razly Abdullah, president and CEO of Affin Group, also predicts a strengthening of the Malaysian Ringgit to RM4.10 against the US Dollar from the current RM4.47, alongside a projected 13% rise in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) to 1,850 [93911724].
In contrast, Kenanga Investment Bank has forecast Malaysia's GDP growth to moderate to 4.8% in 2025, down from 5.0% in 2024. This projection comes despite a strong rebound in exports, which surged by 16.9% in December 2024, significantly exceeding expectations. The full-year exports for 2024 rebounded by 5.7% after an 8.0% decline in 2023, driven by strong demand from Singapore (44.4%) and China (9.6%), although exports to Japan saw a decline of 6.0% [a4bee29d].
Malaysia's imports also rose by 11.9% in December 2024, contributing to a trade surplus that widened to RM19.2 billion for the month, totaling RM136.9 billion for the year [a4bee29d]. Kenanga maintains a 2025 export growth forecast of 5.0%, fueled by strong investments and global tech demand, although risks remain due to uncertainties in China's demand and potential slowdowns in global semiconductor sales [a4bee29d].
Both forecasts reflect a cautious optimism regarding Malaysia's economic prospects amidst global uncertainties. Sabah Finance Minister Masidi Manjun has expressed a similar sentiment, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of economic indicators as the year progresses [93911724]. As these projections unfold, the interplay between manufacturing performance, consumer behavior, and broader economic indicators will be crucial in shaping Malaysia's economic future.