In a significant shift in Japan's defense policy, Shigeru Ishiba, a prominent Japanese politician, proposed on September 27, 2024, a NATO-like nuclear sharing arrangement with the United States. Ishiba argues that this strategy is essential to deter China's growing military assertiveness and to prevent potential conflicts in Asia [11692d79].
Japan has historically maintained a non-nuclear policy established after World War II, but rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and North Korea's advancing nuclear capabilities have intensified discussions around nuclear sharing. Currently, the US has approximately 100 nuclear weapons stationed in five non-nuclear NATO member states, which raises questions about the adequacy of US commitments to defend its allies in the region [11692d79].
As of 2022, China possesses around 350 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and experts warn that Japan's potential nuclear cooperation with the US could provoke an even greater nuclear buildup by China [11692d79]. South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol has also indicated a willingness to consider nuclear deployment in South Korea, reflecting a broader regional concern about security dynamics [11692d79].
While the idea of nuclear sharing is gaining traction among some Japanese leaders, experts suggest that actual implementation is unlikely in the next decade due to Japan's long-standing non-nuclear stance and the complexities of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region [11692d79].
In contrast, advocates for a peaceful, nuclear-free world, such as Sophie Bolt, emphasize the need for disarmament and criticize the US's global military dominance since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Speaking at the CND World We Want conference on October 12, 2024, Bolt highlighted the importance of mass lobbying against NATO and condemned US military provocations in the Asia Pacific [402b299d].
Bolt also pointed out the interconnectedness of struggles against war and for global justice, stressing the role of the global South in promoting peace and nuclear disarmament. She called for an independent UK foreign policy and an arms embargo on Israel, criticizing its actions in Gaza and threats against Iran [402b299d].
Amid these discussions, a recent survey released on December 2, 2024, indicates a notable shift in Japanese public opinion regarding foreign policy. The survey found that 37.8% of Japanese respondents advocate for minimizing the impact of China-US relations on China-Japan ties, an increase of 8.8 percentage points from 2023. Furthermore, 62.2% believe Japan should not take sides between China and the US, reflecting a growing desire for a balanced approach in foreign relations [ada44faf].
Economic cooperation remains a priority, with 58% of Japanese and 51.8% of Chinese respondents viewing each other as vital trade partners. However, concerns persist, particularly regarding the Diaoyu Islands dispute and the release of nuclear-contaminated water, with 45.5% of Chinese respondents citing the Diaoyu Islands as a reason for negative views of Japan [ada44faf].
This evolving narrative around nuclear sharing and public opinion underscores the delicate balance Japan seeks to maintain between enhancing its defense capabilities and adhering to its historical commitments to non-proliferation. As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, the implications of such policy changes could have far-reaching consequences for regional security and US-China relations, while the call for disarmament remains a crucial counterpoint to escalating military tensions.