Former President Donald Trump's final national security adviser, Robert O'Brien, has suggested that the United States should restart nuclear weapons tests for the first time in decades. O'Brien also called for a more aggressive foreign policy towards China, including deploying the entire Marine Corps to the Pacific and cutting off China economically and diplomatically [7beec0f1].
The last U.S. nuclear weapons test took place in September 1992. However, the Biden administration does not believe that expanding the U.S. nuclear stockpile is in the best interest of U.S. foreign policy. Instead, the administration is focused on modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal and pursuing arms control agreements [7beec0f1].
O'Brien's recommendations have been met with criticism from the Arms Control Association, who called them dangerous and counterproductive. Currently, the United States holds 5,044 nuclear warheads, second only to Russia's estimated 5,580. China, on the other hand, has about 500 nuclear warheads in its stockpile [7beec0f1].
In addition to advocating for resuming nuclear weapons tests, O'Brien also suggested decoupling the U.S. economy from China's and imposing tariffs on Chinese goods [7beec0f1].
China's recent expansion of its nuclear arsenal is driven by Chinese leader Xi Jinping's belief that nuclear weapons are instruments for showcasing Chinese power and compelling the United States to take a more accommodating stance toward China. The expansion aims to serve a strategic counterbalance mission and force Washington to respect Beijing and tread more cautiously. China's nuclear modernization is focused on increasing force survivability, retaliatory effectiveness, escalation competitiveness, and regional targeting effectiveness. The expansion goes beyond what is necessary for enhancing the credibility of China's second-strike capability or managing escalation. The motives behind China's nuclear buildup are driven more by a directional mandate from the political leadership than by a new doctrine shaped by military strategists. Understanding China's thinking is crucial for anticipating future nuclear development, engaging China on nuclear risk reduction, and crafting effective diplomatic strategies [d31a6be2].
In a recent development, the United States and China have held their first informal nuclear arms talks in five years. The discussions took place in March and involved representatives from both countries. The US raised concerns that China might use or threaten to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan, but the Chinese representatives reassured their US counterparts that they were confident in their ability to prevail in a conventional fight without resorting to nuclear weapons. The talks were part of a two-decade nuclear weapons and posture dialogue that had stalled after the Trump administration pulled funding in 2019. The US Department of Defense estimates that China currently has 500 operational nuclear warheads and is projected to have over 1,000 by 2030. The talks are seen as a positive step in the midst of strained US-China relations [6c41c693] [7fc5cb14].
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has stated that the US has sought a strategic dialogue with China for years on nuclear matters, but Beijing is reluctant to proceed with negotiations to limit its arsenal. However, China may be prepared to talk about other issues around nuclear issues. Tarun Chhabra, senior director for technology at the US National Security Council, says China does not agree with American policy on the issue of using autonomous systems to launch nuclear weapons. Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, says Beijing opposes the use of artificial intelligence to seek absolute military advantage and hegemony. The Chinese leader and his US counterpart were expected to announce banning AI in nuclear weapons during their meeting, but the read-out only vaguely mentioned the subject. Colonel Wu Qian of the Chinese defense ministry urges all countries to adopt a prudent and responsible attitude to the research, development, and application of AI technologies in the military field [7ddb72a8].