The Australia-China relationship has seen some improvements in 2023, with trade restrictions being lifted and high-level bilateral meetings taking place [2509121c]. However, there are several potential developments that could strain the relationship in 2024 [2509121c]. One of these is the possibility of incidents or accidents involving the two nations' militaries in the South and East China seas [2509121c]. Another factor is Australia's potential restriction of China's access to critical minerals like lithium [2509121c]. Additionally, Canberra may ban Chinese technology on security grounds [2509121c]. The relationship is also affected by fundamental differences, such as Australia's alliance with Washington and shared concerns about China's regional security challenges [2509121c]. Other risk factors include Australia's decision on China's bid for membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership [2509121c]. China's tightening national security legislation and strategic competition in the South Pacific also contribute to the challenges [2509121c]. Despite these potential disruptions, there is room for optimism, as the relationship has shown resilience and lucrative trade benefits serve as a strong ballast [2509121c].
The 2024 Lowy Institute Poll reveals a shift in Australian attitudes towards China, with 53% now viewing China as a security threat compared to 55% in 2020 who saw it as an economic partner [11d595b0]. This change in perception is attributed to China's punitive actions against Australia, including technology bans, human rights issues, and the investigation into the origins of Covid-19 [11d595b0]. The article highlights that concerns about China are seen as a distraction from domestic issues such as the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, digital disruption, and income inequality [11d595b0]. The pandemic disruption to supply chains and China's ability to scale up production of personal protective equipment (PPE) have underscored the reliance on China for critical inputs [11d595b0]. However, the article questions the validity of shifting away from China for supply chain security, suggesting that concerns about China are politically easier to use than advocating for income redistribution or decarbonisation investments [11d595b0]. Australian attitudes towards China are also influenced by the Australian media, which reflects US views on China [11d595b0]. The article emphasizes the need for Australians to appreciate the two sides of the geopolitical contest between the United States and China [11d595b0]. The Lowy Institute Poll also shows that 51% of Australians prioritize a stable relationship with China over working with allies to deter China's military force, while 71% believe a military threat from China is likely in the next 20 years [11d595b0].
A recent article by Michael Williss raises concerns about Australia's alignment with the US in its hostility towards China [d50cb499]. The article highlights a report by US data analytics and military software company, Govini, which warns that the US will lose a war with China due to China's lead in critical technology areas and its presence in US government supply chains [d50cb499]. The report also identifies serious risks within seven major DoD programs, including the cornerstone of AUKUS, the Virginia-class submarines [d50cb499]. Other experts and retired military personnel have expressed similar concerns, stating that the US military is too small, its supply lines are vulnerable, and its defense industrial capacity is eroded [d50cb499]. They argue that a conflict with China would likely be a prolonged war with uncertain outcomes [d50cb499]. The US is also facing challenges in sustaining a fight with China due to its political divide, lack of resilience, and economic consequences [d50cb499]. The article suggests that Australia's alignment with the US in its hostility towards China is seen as a dangerous gamble, considering the warnings and risks associated with a potential war between the US and China [d50cb499].
Despite the concerns raised, it is important to note that the Australia-China relationship has shown resilience and lucrative trade benefits serve as a strong ballast [2509121c]. The Lowy Institute Poll also indicates that there is still a significant portion of Australians who prioritize a stable relationship with China [11d595b0].
This article from the South China Morning Post highlights seven key news stories related to US-China relations. The stories cover a range of topics, including the uncertain nature of defusing tensions between the two countries, the impact of the US presidential debates on the relationship, India's shifting stance on China, a knife attack on American instructors in China, allegations of a secret campaign to discredit Chinese vaccines by the US Pentagon, concerns over China's local government financing vehicles, and the travel of giant pandas from China to the US for the first time in over 20 years [b0221cc8].