Oklahoma's economy is currently navigating a complex landscape as it anticipates a mild recession, with minimal job losses expected. Recent insights from Russell Evans, chief economist at Thorberg Collectorate, suggest that while the U.S. economy is likely headed for a 'soft landing' from high inflation, uncertainty remains. During a recent address to the Claremore Area Chamber of Commerce, Evans noted that inflation, which peaked at around 9% in June 2022, has cooled to a 2.7% increase by November 2023. This shift comes after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates significantly—by 525 basis points over 2022 and 2023—to combat rising prices. Despite these challenges, Oklahoma's GDP saw a robust growth of 5.3% in 2023, with Oklahoma City benefiting from this economic expansion. The state's younger population presents opportunities for workforce development, which is crucial as the labor market remains tight due to the retirement of many baby boomers. Employers are responding by planning to offer raises to retain their workforce. Although the energy sector has weakened, leading to a decrease in jobs, consumer discretionary spending is expected to rebound, and the overall economic outlook for Oklahoma remains relatively positive. The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.2%, with predictions for 2025 varying. Concerns about the federal government's deficit and potential political divisiveness linger, but the consensus is that the recession, if it occurs, will be milder than previous downturns.
In addition to these economic indicators, Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell recently highlighted Oklahoma's ambition to become a top-10 state in terms of growth and development. As of December 2024, Oklahoma ranks ninth in net migration growth, largely due to its efforts to attract young families, particularly from the Dallas metroplex, where living costs are 16% higher than in Tulsa. Pinnell emphasized the importance of affordability in attracting businesses and families alike. While oil and gas remain key economic drivers, there is a strong push for diversification, particularly in the growing aerospace industry, which has seen the introduction of high school classes to prepare students for careers in this field. Moreover, the film industry is expanding, thanks in part to partnerships with the Cherokee Nation. However, Pinnell noted that infrastructure improvements are necessary to attract larger companies and sustain this growth trajectory.
In Arkansas, the economic landscape is also showing promising signs. Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center of Business and Economic Research, is set to speak at the 31st Annual Business Forecast on January 31, 2025, where over 1,100 attendees are expected. Arkansas has experienced near historic lows in unemployment, currently below 3.5%, with over 20,000 jobs added last year. The state's GDP grew by 6.9% in Q3 2024, with job growth concentrated in central and Northwest Arkansas. Jebaraj highlights economic disparities within the state and notes that U.S. GDP growth has been close to 3%, with inflation rates dropping to between 2.3% and 2.7%. He also discusses potential impacts of former President Trump's second term policies on the economy, including immigration and tariffs, emphasizing the importance of manufacturing and exports for job growth. [21475bf9] [46cda848] [47f15547] [0e3b2b83]