As the holiday shopping season evolves, it now begins as early as September, with nearly 40% of American shoppers starting their Christmas shopping before November, according to Deloitte. This trend reflects a desire among consumers to spread out their expenses and avoid the stress of last-minute purchases. In fact, 60% of early shoppers aim to sidestep the chaos typically associated with the holiday rush. [3f5398cc]
The National Retail Federation (NRF) also projects that approximately 180 million shoppers will participate in the Christmas buying frenzy this year, a slight decrease from 182 million in 2023. The NRF forecasts a 3.5% increase in holiday spending, potentially reaching $989 billion, up from $955.6 billion last year. [98a2fd40]
Retail sales have shown positive momentum, rising by 0.4% in October, and online sales are anticipated to reach $240.8 billion, reflecting an 8.4% growth. The average Christmas spending per shopper is estimated at $1,012, an increase from $975 in the previous year. However, a significant 68% of shoppers report that inflation is affecting their spending decisions, with 16% expecting to incur debt for holiday purchases and 28% expressing concern about their current debt levels. Notably, 28% of consumers are still paying off gifts from the previous holiday season. [98a2fd40]
Moreover, early shopping has been significantly influenced by major retailers. Walmart's Deals for Days event starts in October, while Target begins its promotions mid-October. Costco stocks holiday items as early as September, and Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days in October encourages early spending. According to PwC's 2024 Holiday Outlook, 58% of holiday shoppers are taking advantage of pre-Black Friday deals. [3f5398cc]
Despite the early shopping trend, consumer sentiment remains cautious. A Morgan Stanley survey indicates that 35% of consumers plan to spend more this holiday season, yet 66% express concern about economic conditions, and 45% worry about product availability. The Conference Board projects average spending of $1,063, reflecting a 7.9% increase from 2023, while Deloitte estimates an 8% rise to $1,778 per shopper. [8e3202a5]
Jack Kleinhenz, NRF's Chief Economist, remains optimistic about the holiday season, despite mixed economic indicators, including modest job growth and a slowdown in GDP growth from 3% in Q2 to 2.8% in Q3. Retailers are preparing for a busy holiday season, with key shopping days like Black Friday and Super Saturday expected to draw significant crowds. [dfde5782]
Experian's findings suggest that 89% of consumers feel tempted to overspend this holiday season, highlighting the tension between consumer optimism and financial caution. Wells Fargo forecasts a modest 3.3% rise in holiday sales, while KPMG anticipates a 4% increase in spending to $948 per person. The overall sentiment remains positive, with October retail sales hitting a record $718.9 billion and wage growth outpacing inflation for the past 18 months. [80f46e25]