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How Will Trump's Return Impact Mexico-Cuba Oil Relations?

2024-11-29 23:47:32.950000

In November 2024, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed ongoing oil shipments to Cuba, emphasizing Mexico's commitment to support its neighbor despite potential criticism. Sheinbaum stated, "We are going to support Cuba. Even if they criticize it, we are going to show solidarity." Since early 2023, Mexico has sent close to a million barrels of crude and diesel to Cuba, amounting to at least $300 million in fuel, which underscores Mexico's role as a crucial supplier as Venezuela's oil exports have dwindled. This support is particularly significant given the historical context of Mexico's relations with Cuba, as former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) had a history of criticizing the U.S. embargo and expressing admiration for Fidel Castro, further solidifying ties between the two nations.

Mexico's trade with Cuba remains limited, with imports from Cuba totaling $335.70 million and exports at just $25 million. In contrast, U.S.-Mexico trade reached $855 billion in 2022, showcasing the economic interdependence between the two countries, with Mexico enjoying a $131 billion trade surplus. However, Sheinbaum's support for Cuba could face challenges if a second Trump administration imposes tariffs on Mexican goods, complicating the dynamics of Mexico's foreign policy and its commitment to Cuba. Trump's previous administration had a contentious relationship with Mexico, and his return to power could lead to increased tensions, particularly regarding trade and energy policies.

As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the implications of Mexico's oil support for Cuba amid U.S. political tensions will be closely monitored. The interplay between domestic energy policies, international relations, and economic stability will be critical as both Mexico and Cuba navigate their futures in a potentially hostile political environment. Furthermore, with the Biden administration's recent recognition of Edmundo González as Venezuela's 'president-elect' and the imposition of sanctions on Venezuelan officials, the U.S. is expected to continue its aggressive stance towards both Cuba and Venezuela. Trump's anticipated policies, particularly with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, signal a hardline approach that could further complicate Mexico's support for Cuba. The U.S. sanctions have severe humanitarian impacts and are part of a broader strategy to destabilize nations perceived as ideological threats to U.S. hegemony. 21

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