CIB Bank analysts have forecasted that the Hungarian economy will gain momentum in 2025, with growth expected to exceed 3% [d54deee4]. This positive outlook comes despite a projected GDP growth of less than 1% for 2024, reflecting ongoing struggles in various sectors including agriculture, construction, and manufacturing [d54deee4]. The third-quarter GDP data for 2024 fell short of expectations, prompting a downward revision for the year [d54deee4].
Inflation in Hungary is anticipated to decline after a temporary rise at the end of 2024, with projections suggesting an average inflation rate of around 3.7% for 2025 [d54deee4]. The inflation rate had fallen to 3% by September 2024 but is expected to rise temporarily above 4% by December [d54deee4]. Additionally, real wages are projected to increase by about 5%, which could help bolster consumer spending [d54deee4].
However, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, indicating challenges in the labor market [d54deee4]. Despite these difficulties, average gross and net earnings rose by 13.9% in the first eight months of 2024, reflecting some positive trends in wage growth [d54deee4]. The euro exchange rate is expected to remain above HUF 400, adding another layer of complexity to the economic landscape as the country navigates cautious monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% in October [d54deee4]. As Hungary prepares for 2025, the interplay of wage dynamics, global energy prices, and exchange rate volatility will be critical factors influencing the economy's trajectory [d54deee4].
