As of December 14, 2024, the Syrian pound has exhibited unexpected resilience against the US dollar, trading at levels not seen since before the financial crisis in 2020. Following reports of President Bashar al-Assad's departure from office, currency traders in Damascus reported exchange rates fluctuating between 12,500 and 10,000 pounds per dollar, marking a 20-50% improvement from the previous rate of 15,000 pounds. Ahmed al-Najjar, a currency dealer, noted a growing optimism for political change and the potential lifting of sanctions, which has contributed to this unusual stability. [211dd1db]
This recent development comes on the heels of a tumultuous period for the Syrian economy, which had been severely impacted by military operations and political upheaval. Just a few days prior, on December 9, 2024, the US dollar was selling for approximately 17,000 Syrian pounds, a stark contrast to the current rates. The pound had previously suffered a staggering annual depreciation of about 113.5% in 2023, marking the largest decline in its history. Economic researcher Khaled Turkawi had attributed fluctuations in exchange rates to high demand for foreign currencies against a large supply of the Syrian pound. [321cf9a4]
The political landscape shifted dramatically when President Bashar Al Assad fled Damascus as rebel forces gained control, leading to significant instability. In the aftermath, the Syrian pound had plummeted to 15,100 pounds per US dollar in Damascus and even higher rates in Aleppo, where it reached 17,500 pounds. [d77563e8]
The economic situation was exacerbated by ongoing military operations in northern Syria, particularly the 'Deterrence of Aggression' operation initiated by opposition factions against regime forces on November 27, 2024. This conflict contributed to the staggering depreciation of the pound, which had already been in decline. [d77563e8]
Despite the recent improvements, analysts caution that the recovery of the Syrian pound and the economy will heavily depend on how the leadership transition is managed and whether international support can be secured. Rana Shami emphasized the necessity for comprehensive reforms to stabilize the economy in the long term. Public sentiment in Damascus remains cautiously optimistic, yet there is a prevailing skepticism regarding the potential for prolonged instability. [211dd1db]
In Latakia, residents had been experiencing dramatic price increases for essential goods, with reports indicating that prices surged by 60% to 100% during the previous weeks. Essential items such as ghee and frying oil saw significant price hikes, reflecting the broader economic challenges faced by the population. [a63c2ab5]
Syria's GDP was projected to contract by 1.5% in 2024, following a 1.2% decline in 2023, reflecting a staggering 54% shrinkage from 2010 to 2021. As of 2022, 69% of the population lived in poverty, with over 25% experiencing extreme poverty. Oil production had drastically fallen from over 400,000 barrels per day in 2008-2010 to about 91,000 barrels per day in 2023. The Captagon trade, however, remained lucrative, valued at between $1.9 billion to $5.6 billion annually. [d77563e8]
In conclusion, while the Syrian pound's recent stability is a positive sign, the path to recovery remains fraught with challenges that will require careful navigation in the political and economic spheres. [211dd1db]