On January 14, 2025, a comprehensive study published in Nature by Gokul Iyer and colleagues examined the potential emissions reductions for the United States' Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by 2035. The study suggests that with expanded policies, the U.S. could achieve economy-wide reductions of 56-67% below 2005 levels. This is a significant increase compared to the 34-44% reductions projected under current policies [9398dc31].
The findings emphasize the necessity for ambitious NDCs to align with the Paris Agreement's climate goals. The authors highlight the critical role of federal programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) in facilitating this transition [9398dc31]. President Joe Biden has stated, 'Now we have proven we don’t have to choose between protecting the environment and growing the economy,' reinforcing the economic benefits of reducing pollution [3a45e8fd].
The study anticipates substantial increases in renewable energy capacity and electric vehicle sales, which are essential for meeting these ambitious targets. However, it also identifies gaps in current policies and suggests that significant sectoral transformations will be necessary to realize these reductions [9398dc31].
Furthermore, the research calls for multi-model approaches to effectively capture uncertainties in emissions projections, which will be vital for informing global NDC updates. The U.S. has committed to reducing emissions by 50-52% by 2030 and aims for a 61-66% reduction by 2035 [9398dc31].
This study aligns with recent U.S. initiatives announced by the Department of Energy, which include comprehensive action plans for transportation and maritime decarbonization, aiming to enhance the cleanliness and resilience of the U.S. transportation system. These plans, developed in collaboration with various federal agencies, are part of a broader strategy to accelerate innovation and expand affordable transportation options [3835ae79].
In addition, the U.S. government has launched an action plan for maritime energy and emissions innovation, targeting significant emissions reductions in the maritime sector, which is responsible for a large portion of energy consumption from U.S. bunkered fuels [e2f11bda]. Together, these efforts reflect a cohesive strategy to bolster energy security while promoting sustainability across multiple sectors of the U.S. economy [5ea85f39].
In California, recent developments have also highlighted the economic advantages of reducing pollution. The state withdrew proposed regulations to end new diesel truck sales by 2036 but aims to maintain control over air quality standards. The EPA has approved California's light vehicle standards phasing out fossil-fueled cars by 2035, emphasizing the state's commitment to a cleaner environment [3a45e8fd].
California is seeking voluntary agreements with trucking companies for zero-emissions trucks, recognizing that diesel exhaust is linked to serious health issues. The energy transition is seen as economically favorable, but it requires regulatory support to avoid catastrophic warming [3a45e8fd].