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What Factors Led to Trump's Victory Over Harris in 2024?

2024-11-21 21:43:05.215000

In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump emerged victorious over Kamala Harris, winning 301 electoral votes to Harris's 226. Pollsters had predicted a close race, but analysts increasingly forecasted Trump's victory due to various factors that ultimately influenced voter sentiment [c09548d0].

Key issues that resonated with young, undecided voters included the economy, immigration, and the ongoing war in Gaza. Many participants in focus groups, who had supported Biden in 2020, expressed uncertainty about Harris and Trump. Economic concerns, particularly inflation and rising food prices, played a significant role in shaping their decisions [ee7a90e7].

Trump's campaign effectively capitalized on these economic anxieties, with 44% of voters favoring his economic policies compared to 43% for Harris. His promises included cutting corporate tax rates from 35% to 15% and reducing the national debt, which resonated with voters worried about inflation and economic stability [21b10aea]. In contrast, Harris's proposals to increase the corporate tax rate back to 35% and double the minimum wage did not sufficiently address the immediate economic concerns of the electorate [21b10aea].

Adding to the economic narrative, Deborah Veneziale noted that Harris lost 9 million voters since 2020, while Trump gained 1.2 million. Voter turnout was estimated between 153 and 156 million, marking the second-highest participation in a century. Economic issues, particularly inflation affecting the bottom 65% of earners, were crucial in shaping voter sentiment, with real wages reported to be lower than they were 50 years ago [9ac61434].

Immigration policy was another significant concern for these young voters. Trump's clear stance on immigration contrasted sharply with Harris's perceived indecisiveness, which helped him solidify support among voters prioritizing immigration reform. Analysts noted that the Biden administration's handling of illegal immigration alienated many voters, further complicating Harris's position [c09548d0].

On foreign policy, Trump's 'America First' approach resonated with voters seeking stability and clarity, while Harris's foreign policy was criticized for lacking decisiveness. Her stance on Israel reportedly cost her crucial Muslim votes in Michigan, further diminishing her appeal [c09548d0]. Veneziale also highlighted dissatisfaction with Harris stemming from her support for the Gaza conflict, which alienated some voters [9ac61434].

The election results reflect a broader national sentiment rather than localized concerns, highlighting the Democrats' struggle with candidate perception. Harris faced criticism post-election for being too centrist and failing to connect with voters. Historically, Democrats often regret their candidate choices regardless of outcomes, suggesting a recurring pattern in electoral strategies [56451c84].

Trump's campaign utilized broad messaging strategies that contrasted with Harris's micro-targeting approach. This difference in strategy, combined with the influence of misinformation and ambient information, played significant roles in shaping public opinion. The Democrats' reliance on factual information failed to resonate with voters, while Trump's influence over media and public perception was notably effective [56451c84].

In the wake of the election, the Democratic Party is grappling with significant losses, having not only lost the White House but also the Senate, and facing potential losses in the House. Over 3,100 counties swung rightward since 2020, indicating a troubling trend for the party. Democrats are now pointing fingers at various factors for their defeat, including misinformation, the ongoing Gaza war, a toxic brand, and issues surrounding transgender rights. Harris's performance was notably worse than Biden's in 2020, and the party's failure to adequately address voters' concerns about the economy and immigration has been highlighted as a critical misstep. Issues that Democrats emphasized, such as abortion rights, did not resonate with the electorate, further complicating their political landscape [0d784214].

Adding to this narrative, Robert Reich argues that Trump's claim of a 'very big mandate' is misleading, as there was a significant drop in voter turnout, with 9 million fewer votes cast compared to 2020. Trump received about 1 million more votes than in 2020, with 700,000 from battleground states, while Harris garnered 10 million fewer votes than Biden, including 400,000 fewer in battlegrounds. Reich suggests that this decline is indicative of working-class voters feeling abandoned by the Democrats, emphasizing the need for the party to focus on the bottom 90 percent and restructure the economy for shared prosperity [2922aa25].

Examples from states like Missouri and Nebraska show that voters support minimum wage increases and paid sick leave, despite rejecting Harris, indicating a disconnect between Democratic messaging and voter priorities [2922aa25]. Reich calls on Democrats to seize the opportunity to advocate for a fairer economy, which may help them reconnect with disenchanted voters [2922aa25].

In light of Trump's victory, it was noted that 75% of voters disliked both candidates, yet Trump represented change for many, despite only one-third of Republicans identifying as MAGA. His performance among diverse demographics improved compared to 2020, revealing a potential shift in voter alignment. Concerns about Trump's tariffs and military strategy in Asia have also surfaced, alongside strong public support for U.S. alliances [0fdec4eb].

In a related discussion, Hamline University's political science department hosted a panel on November 18, 2024, analyzing Trump's victory. Professors David Schultz, Zhenquig Zhang, Binnur Ozkececi-Taner, and former professor Joseph Peschek participated, with Alina Oxendine leading the discussion on gender politics. The panel highlighted that economic concerns significantly influenced perceptions of Harris, with Schultz and Peschek noting that her loss reflected broader issues within the Democratic Party. Trump's victory was viewed as a culmination of 40 years of Democratic choices, while European leaders expressed caution about his second term. Israeli leaders congratulated Trump, raising concerns about potential reactions from Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin [0926176f].

Moreover, Trump's ability to tap into America's online spaces played a crucial role in his victory. He effectively engaged with diverse online communities, including young voters, Latino men, and Black men, who found resonance in his loud and bombastic style. This approach was complemented by the rise of cultural phenomena such as 'tradwives,' who glorify domestic labor, and 'podcast bros,' who create provocative media environments. Wellness influencers also contributed to a political landscape that can lead to extremism, showcasing how Trump's coalition was built on aesthetics rather than policy [8c5a1843].

As the election results unfolded, analysts noted that the rise of anti-incumbent sentiment globally also influenced the electoral dynamics in the U.S. [94f23915]. The Democrats lost both working-class and suburban votes, and some progressive tactics may have inadvertently aided Trump's rise [94f23915].

Overall, Trump's victory can be attributed to his ability to address economic issues, immigration concerns, and foreign policy clarity, while Harris struggled to connect her campaign promises to the immediate needs of voters. However, the article warns of potential fascism and repression under Trump's administration, reflecting growing apathy among voters, with 88 million choosing not to vote [9ac61434].

In a broader context, commentators have also pointed to the role of Biden's late withdrawal from the race and the subsequent Democratic reshuffle as contributing factors to Harris's defeat. Richard Heydarian emphasized that the party's internal dynamics played a significant role in shaping the electoral outcome [d83284d7]. Additionally, concerns about Trump's legal issues, including 34 convictions, were raised by Artemio Panganiban, highlighting the complexities surrounding his candidacy [d83284d7].

Michael Lim Ubac noted that issues like the economy, immigration, and crime were pivotal in shaping voters' preferences, while Randy David pointed out Trump's appeal to marginalized communities, further complicating the narrative around voter alignment and preferences [d83284d7]. In New York City, where living costs are notably high, bread prices have reached $4.50-$5.00, reflecting broader economic concerns that influenced voter sentiment [d83284d7].

Ultimately, while abortion rights were deemed insignificant in the election, Harris's loyalty to Biden and the Democratic establishment may have hindered her ability to connect with a broader electorate. The expectation remains that democracy will prevail in the U.S., but the path forward for the Democratic Party appears fraught with challenges [d83284d7].

Disclaimer: The story curated or synthesized by the AI agents may not always be accurate or complete. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, financial, or professional advice. Please use your own discretion.