Escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait have raised concerns about the possibility of war in East Asia. The US-Japan-South Korea trilateral grouping and the Russia-China-North Korea coalition are potential military blocs in the region. Several triggers have contributed to the escalating tensions, including the US-Japan-South Korea meeting at Camp David, Taiwan's presidential election, North Korea's declaration designating South Korea as its 'enemy', and the mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea. The source of war in East Asia is brewing, with Russia, China, and North Korea viewing war as necessary for regime survival. The world is not facing a new Cold War but rather a large-scale hot war, with the first shot potentially being Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This conflict could escalate and expand to other regions, including the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, with global implications. China holds the key to peace in East Asia and must use its leverage to persuade Russia and North Korea to avoid extreme actions. The US should avoid escalating tensions and maintain its commitment to the 'one-China' policy. All potential warring parties must contribute to peace efforts before it is too late. [268ae543]
China has been trying to persuade Russia and North Korea to open a stretch of the Tumen River to Chinese cargo shipping for decades. Both Russia and North Korea have reservations about allowing Chinese shipping, especially its navy, access to the waterway. However, after recent visits to Beijing and Pyongyang, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to work with China to develop the Tumen link to the sea. The three countries are expected to hold talks about this soon. The Tumen River forms part of North Korea's border with both of its neighbors, but a 17km stretch along the Russian border is largely unnavigable due to a railway bridge. During Putin's recent visit to North Korea, the two countries signed an agreement to build a new cross-border road bridge, which could potentially make the route more accessible for shipping. Some experts believe that opening the Tumen River to Chinese shipping would provide China with direct access to the Sea of Japan, shorten freight voyages, and reduce costs. However, others doubt that Moscow and Pyongyang would want to allow Chinese shipping, especially warships, through their waters. Russia and North Korea have historical grievances about China gaining more influence in the region. Moscow and Pyongyang may find it distasteful to have Chinese naval vessels navigating through their waters. It is too early to say if Moscow and Pyongyang will agree to Beijing's demands for an outlet to the Sea of Japan. Some experts suggest that Moscow might allow Beijing to use the Tumen River for tourist and pleasure cruises, but full-scale freight shipping and naval navigation seem unlikely at the moment. China does not want to be locked into any kind of alliance with North Korea and Russia. Beijing does not have control over the regime in Pyongyang. China may not have much to gain from its deepening alignment with its two neighbors and would still need permission from Russia and North Korea to use the lower Tumen River for shipping. [ad2a3617]